The Safe Investing Blog

Market Outlook entering the Week of November 1st = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Several indexes are back above their 200-day moving averages, which adds more credence to the latest uptrend.    It remains a good time to do some short-term trading, or make adjustments to your longer term holdings.

2015-11-01 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of October 25th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
The rally in US stocks continues.  Since we’re in the final leg of our 6 year bull market, this is the perfect time to make adjustments to your portfolio…much like you prepare for the winter months in autumn.  So start adjusting your position sizes, your asset mix, and take some profits.

2015-10-25 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of October 18th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages closed above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US stocks extended their rally through week 3.  To reiterate my comments from last week, we don’t know is how long the rally will last, so consider a two prong approach:  make money by trading shorter-term growth stocks, and take profits from your longer term positions.

Sadly, the end of the current bull market is on the horizon.  But there is a silver lining.  Here’s what OEW has to say:

When it does conclude a … bear market should then follow, with the market losing between 45% and 50% of its value. This is likely to take one to two years. After that, a 30+ year Cycle wave [3] should get underway, with bull/bear markets along the way…

Talk about a once in a lifetime investing opportunity!

2015-10-18 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of October 11th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Buy Signal
  All the major stock market averages rose above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US stocks continue to rally, maintain the rally that started two weeks ago.  It appears we’ve entered the P5 wave (according to OEW), meaning this uptrend will the last one of the current bull market.  We don’t know is how long the rally will last, so consider a two prong approach:  make money by trading shorter-term growth stocks, and take profits from your longer term positions.

2015-10-11 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of October 4th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Buy signal
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages remained below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US stocks showed signs of life last week, with higher volume up days indicating the start of a new uptrend.  OEW also confirmed an uptrend, so odds are good that the markets will see at least a short-term rally.  If so, the next few weeks will be a great time to readjust your holdings, especially if you’ve managed to hold on to positions since August.

2015-10-04 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of September 27th = Downtrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Sell signal
  All the major stock market averages fell below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages remained below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US stocks retreated last week.  We’re still waiting for confirmation of the longer-term trend, so continue to monitor your positions and keep your losses small.

2015-09-27 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week