Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 12th = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
The overall signal switched to a downtrend during last week.  The ADX turned negative on Tuesday.  OEW switched the medium-term signal to a downtrend that may have bottomed on Friday. The Price & Volume signal remains in an uptrend; a couple more distributions days, but prices found support at the 50-day moving average.

Technical analysis of weekly S&P 500 prices

2019-05-12 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

The weekly price chart shows a market looking for a trend.  Unlike the last two sell-offs from all time highs, we didn’t see the same spike in trading volume and prices closed off the lows for the week.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-05-12 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) put the price channel we were tracking in its rearview mirror.  But the index looks to have found a solid support level, with prices closing above the 50-day moving average on Thursday and Friday.

I can now say I wasn’t surprised to see market prices encounter a sell off.  Within hours of last week’s post, Trump tweeted on the China trade negations and it was downhill from there.  But lets be honest; from the all time high to Friday’s low is only 4.5% or so…and prices recovered almost half of that before closing for the week.  All in all, I’d say investors took that one rather well.

Now we’ll see how long this weak patch lasts.  At the moment, this still looks and feels like a run of the mill correction.  Price action to close last week was positive, technically speaking, so this downtrend may be over already!  Then again, we’re just a tweet or tariff away from something bigger. As always, let price be your guide.

Monday Morning Update: A shock to almost no one, U.S. President Donald Trump warned China not to retaliate against a hike in tariffs. Then China announced plans to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, in response to the U.S. tariff hike. S&P futures are down ~2% as of 9am.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 5th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
No change in the signals to start the first full week of May.  The ADX still shows a bullish trend in place, although it’s weakened a bit.  The Price & Volume signal looks good; above the 50-day moving average with minimal distribution days.  OEW still shows an uptrend in place as well.

The S&P shows weekly prices start the week near all time highs; just above the last resistance level from 2018 (~2,930).  So we can say the v-shaped recovery is complete!  But that 2019 Q1 trendline looks like it’s done.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-05-05 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) briefly dipped below the uptrend channel.  Since prices immediately recovered, I won’t call it done just yet.  But given the weakening ADX, be on the lookout for signs of selling next week.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-05-05 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

Given the completion of the recovery, and what appears to be some loss of momentum (ADX and trendlines), I wouldn’t be surprised to see market prices encounter a short correction.  Most of the “growth stocks” that I follow are well extended from proper buy points and/or sitting on >20% gains.  And new set-ups aren’t exactly setting the world on fire (e.g. low volume breakouts). “Sell in May and Go Away” really happens…especially if you’re sitting on 20% gains within 4 months!


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 28th  = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
No change in the signals as we start the week, and the SPX kicks things off at all time highs!  The ADX shows a strong bullish trend in place.  Several distribution days fell off the count for the Price & Volume signal.  And although there hasn’t been an OEW post in a while, that’s because nothing has changed in their medium-term counts.

A weekly view of the S&P shows prices start the week at all time highs.  We’re just shy of recovering the 2019 Q1 trendline.

SPX trendlines for weekly prices

2019-04-28 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) found support within the uptrend channel, and prices also sit at all time highs.  The V-shaped recovery was impressive.

I did not expect prices to recover so quickly.  Others will be quick to point out the potential causes, but for me, all that matters is that the trading process and signals were on the right side of the trend…regardless of whether or not I thought I was “right” about what caused the rally.

Trendlines for daily SPX prices

2019-04-28 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

When markets are in a solid uptrend, week after week, it’s easy to become complacent.  As we saw last year, prices can head south quickly.  With month end coming up, it’s a good time to review our statements and check your asset allocation.  Make sure your holdings haven’t strayed too far from your target.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 21st  = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
No change in the signals as we start the week.  The ADX, Price & Volume, and OEW all remain in an uptrend.

A weekly view of the S&P shows the late December uptrend was violated last week, but not by much.  The index needed to close at 2,925 or higher, but instead closed at 2,905.  We’ll have to see if prices can recover this week.  The declining volume doesn’t instill much confidence in the run towards new highs, but a holiday shortened week clouds the issue.

In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) remains within the uptrend channel.  And we can see an uptick in trading volume as prices hit 2,900…contradicting the weekly view.

Charts to follow soon.

Happy Easter Weekend!


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 14th  = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The S&P starts this week less than 2% off the all time high, and all signals (ADX, Price/Volume, and OEW) are green.

A weekly view of the S&P’s shows the late December uptrend remains intact. The index will need to end this week above 2925 or so to keep the weekly trend intact.

SPX Trendlines plotted over a weekly price and volume graph from Stockcharts.com

2019-04-14 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the daily view, the S&P500 ($SPX) starts this week in the middle of our fledgling channel, and another distribution day fell outside the 25 day window.

Trendlines plotted over a daily price and volume graph fort he SPX from Stockcharts.com

2019-04-14 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

Given the drastic changes in market price over the past 6 months, and the relative “calm” in market prices right now, take the opportunity to review your holdings. Double check your allocations verses your strategies and make sure that your money and goals are aligned.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Insights from JP Morgan for 2019 Q2

Each quarter, JP Morgan Asset Management provides a ton of useful information via its “Guide to the Markets”:

“a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear, compelling charts and graphs you can share with your clients.”

You can find this little gem on JP Morgan’s Asset management website, including the “Guide to the Markets” PDF and audio commentary.  Topics include Equities, Fixed Income, International markets, the U.S. economy, as well as alternative investments and investor behavior.

Sources:


JP Morgan Guide to the Markets: Q2 2019
https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383407651970/83456/MI-GTM_2Q19_2.pdf?segment=AMERICAS_US_ADV&locale=en_US

Posted in Current Events, Historical Data, Investing, Market Trends, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 7th  = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
No April Fool’s joke this year.  Market prices powered higher last week, leaving little reason to doubt new all time highs shortly. The ADX DI+ / DI- remains in bullish/uptrend territory. Price/volume shifts back to an uptrend.  And the OEW group continues with their uptrend call.

In the weekly view, the S&P’s shows the late December remains intact.

SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-04-07 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

I also highlighted all the weeks of heavy selling, going back to mid-2016 (rather than just the last year).  You can see a fairly even smattering of “distribution weeks” (if there is such a thing) throughout 2016 and the first half of 2017.  Then, it switched to feast or famine; either the market sold off hard every other week, or there was very little selling to speak of.

I haven’t back-tested the performance impact from this observation.  I just assume that a sell off now and then is health for market prices, and noticed the S&P hasn’t had a “distribution week” since the market bottom 15 weeks ago.

SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-04-07 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

Switching to a daily view, the S&P500 ($SPX) starts the week in what appears to be a new uptrend channel.  In contrast with the weekly view, the daily view shows the late December uptrend did end a couple weeks ago.  Nevertheless, the daily confirms the break above those 2018 Q4 highs.  2 distribution days fell off the count, so the price/volume signal shifts from mixed to an uptrend.

2019-04-07 - US Stock Market Averages

2019-04-07 – US Stock Market Averages

Generally speaking, the various averages showed a lot of strength last week.  Even the Russell 2000 joined in, after closing below its 50-day moving averages two weeks ago.

 


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
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