Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 22nd = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

COMMENTARY
Another sideways week for the US markets.  Even Friday’s combination of Trump’s inauguration with options expiration wasn’t enough to juice the markets higher.

The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 both closed below the 20 day.  All the indexes remain above their respective 50 and 200 day moving averages.

2017-01-22 - US Stock Market Averages

2017-01-22 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action is okay; the NASDAQ and Dow added another distribution day and ran into topping action (high spread, low close).

  • NASDAQ = 5
  • Dow Jones Industrial = 7
  • S&P = 4
  • NYSE = 4

With closes below the 20-day, small corrections appear to be underway in 2 of the 5 major indexes.  OEW mirrors this sentiment, noting that a medium-term downtrend may be underway.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 15th= Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Another week, another failed attempt at passing Dow 20,000…not that the level itself is all that important.  With the exception of the Nasdaq, most of the indexes haven’t moving much higher than their mid-December levels.  Are we digesting the post-election gains, waiting for earnings, or at the start of a new downtrend?

The Dow Jones took its turn to close below the 20 day moving average, although the Russell 2000 gave it a run for its money.  All the indexes remain above their respective 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.

2017-01-15 - US Stock Market Averages

2017-01-15 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains positive, although the Dow did run into some heavy selling last week.  Still, the distribution day counts are reasonable, given the sideways price action we’ve seen over the past few weeks.

  • NASDAQ = 4 (-)
  • Dow Jones Industrial = 6 (-1 / +2)
  • S&P = 4 (-2)
  • NYSE = 4 (-2)

OEW continues to signal an uptrend.  However, short-term action is up for debate.  The inability to move prices higher has provided some rationale for a short, 5% correction.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 8th= Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Looks like breaking through Dow 20,000 will have to wait another week.  Last week’s trading volume increased over the low levels we saw during the holiday season, but is below the average volume seen in Q4.

It was the Russell 2000’s turn to close below the 20 day moving average, while all the other indexes regained that level.  All the indexes remain above their respective 50 and 200 day moving averages.

2017-01-08 - US Stock Market Averages

2017-01-08 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains positive. No new distribution days last week, which puts the total count at:

  • NASDAQ = 4
  • Dow Jones Industrial = 5
  • S&P = 6
  • NYSE = 6

OEW continues to signal an uptrend.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 1st = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Happy New Year! Low volume trading continued during the holiday shortened trading week, making it a bit difficult to sort out where the market is headed as we kick off 2017.  Was the uptick in distribution days (mentioned below) just an artifact of junior traders manning the trading desks, or the start of something more substantial?  We’ll have to wait and see.

The Dow Jones Industrials was the only average able to end the holiday shortened week above its 20 day moving average (just barely), while the other 4 closed below that level.  On the plus side, all the indexes remain above their respective 50 and 200 day moving averages.

2017-01-01 - US Stock Market Averages

2017-01-01 – US Stock Market Averages

The indexes ran into 2 distribution days last week, but overall trading volumes were below average.  The counts are currently 4 for the NASDAQ, 5 for the Dow Jones Industrials, and 6 for the S&P500 and NYSE.  Wednesday and Friday  trading sessions also had relatively large spreads (verses the recent average), and prices closed low in the range.  Again, it’s hard to draw conclusions given that trading volume was well below average, but something to keep an eye on going into the new year.

OEW continues to signal an uptrend, but is seeing enough signs of weakness to begin mentioning a possible correction during the next few weeks.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 25th = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Happy Holidays! US markets continued treading water last week, with no major moves as trading volume dried up ahead of the holidays.

All the major indexes remain above their respective 20/50/200 day moving averages.

2016-12-25 - US Stock Markets

2016-12-25 – US Stock Markets

OEW continues to signal an uptrend, but notes that two very positive events (electoral college confirmation and the best GDP report in 2 years) did not provide much upside to the market.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 18th = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
US stocks took a breather last week with some sideways price action.  Considering how quickly the markets have advanced since the US election, a brief pause is a good thing; it sets up future advances.

All the major indexes remain above their respective 20/50/200 day moving averages.

2016-12-18 - US Stock Market Averages

2016-12-18 – US Stock Market Averages

The Nasdaq lost a distribution day last week.  The NYSE picked up 3, while the Dow and S&P added 2. (Totals: Nasdaq = 3, NYSE = 4, S&P500 = 5, Dow = 4).  None of the averages are elevated yet, so the rally should still have some legs.

OEW remains in an uptrend.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 11th = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
US stocks returned to their winning ways, as all the major indexes posted impressive gains.

The Nasdaq recovered nicely, rejoining all the other major indexes above their respective 20/50/200 day moving averages.

2016-12-11 - US Stock Market Averages

2016-12-11 – US Stock Market Averages

So much for that topping action mentioned in last week’s update.  Wednesday’s price volume action tabled that discussion.  All the indexes went on to lose a distribution day last week.  The NASDAQ remains elevated, which is expected given all the selling in major technology names recently.  (Nasdaq = 4, NYSE = 1, S&P500 = 3, and the Dow = 2).

OEW remains in an uptrend and continues to expect it to last into January.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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