Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 15th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
U.S. stocks continued their recent rally from key support levels, reaffirming the uptrend.  Commodity prices (especially gold) continue to fall. The yield curve continues to flatten (the difference between 10-year yields and 2-year yields decreases). Since the yield curve has inverted ahead of every recession in the past 40 years (10 year yields are less than 2-year yields), there are a lot of people watching these numbers.  But the lag between an inversion and the start of a recession at least 10 months, so we’ve still got time to make some hay, so to speak.

This week, all the indexes start off above their 20 and 50 day moving averages, as the Dow Industrials joined the other market averages above those technical indicators.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-07-15 – US Stock Market Averages

Trading volume remains low, which isn’t a sign of strength for the uptrend.  But the lack of selling means distribution days continue to fall off the count.  With the averages above their 50-day and lack of high-volume selling, this signal shifts back to an “uptrend” to start the week.

OEW also shifted back to an uptrend; the S&P didn’t confirm the uptrend as expected.

The S&P ($SPX) broke through the 2787 resistance level last week, and we’re back at prices from mid-March. The upward channel remains robust, in terms of providing support and resistance levels. The lower trendline held up really well toward the end of June, saving the uptrend.

As of this week, the upper trendline isn’t too far off (~2835 or so); if the channel continues to hold, we’re probably in for another round of sideways/negative price movement prior to the end of August.

2018-07-15 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-07-15 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

For the ADX, the bearish directional indicator (DI-) fell below the bullish indicator (DI+) and the ADX line fell below 20, indicating the recent bearish trend has weakened.  Now we watch for the ADX to rise so that we can confirm the bullish trend. Again, since we close to the upper trendline of the channel, any bullishness may be short lived, like early May and early June.

2018-07-15 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-07-15 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Looking longer term, if the S&P finds enough strength to bust out of the channel, the January high at 2872 becomes the next level of resistance.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 8th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

COMMENTARY
U.S. stocks rallied last week, surviving the start of back and forth tariffs between the U.S. and China.  The overall outlook remains in an uptrend.

Price Charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-07-08 – US Stock Market Averages

With the exception of the Dow Jones Industrials, all the indexes recovered both their 20 and 50 day moving averages.  So this signal switches back into the uptrend camp.

Low trading volumes make any conclusions from last week’s action difficult.  But at least we didn’t see any high volume sell-offs!  So the signal remains “mixed” heading into this week.

OEW continues to show a downtrend “may” be underway, but also mentions that we’re still in an uptrend until a downtrend is confirmed…definitely mixed signals there.

2018-07-08 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-07-08 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

For the S&P500 ($SPX), the ADX is hanging right around 20.  The bearish directional indicator (DI-) remains in charge for now.

2018-07-08 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-07-08 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

The support levels near 2700 held (short and long term views), and the S&P bounced off the lower channel of the current uptrend.  Trading volume was lacking though, so we may retest the uptrend before moving higher.  2787 remains the upside resistance level.

 


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 1st = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Mixed
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

COMMENTARY
U.S. stocks ended Q2 with a whimper, succumbing to selling pressure last week.  The market averages gaped down, and then spent the remainder of the week struggling to recover.  We start Q3 with the uptrend technically intact (i.e. no outright downtrend signals), although all the signals changed to “mixed”.  Good arguments could be made for switching them to downtrends, so monitor the markets this week and adjust.  As of today, we’re not quite there, but be prepared.

The first week in July starts with both the Dow and the NYSE below their respective 20 and 50 day moving averages.  Those 2 indexes also sit below their 200-day moving average; a bearish signal.  The Nasdaq and S&P500 are below their 20-day moving averages and above their 50 day moving averages (just barely).  So the signal changes to mixed, though you could make a decent case for changing it to a downtrend.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-07-01 – US Stock Market Averages

Price/volume action also weakened further last week.  As mentioned above, the S&P is still above its 50 day moving average, but distribution days have increased.  Quality growth stocks are extended, sitting well above their proper buy points, leaving the market averages in search of leadership to drive prices higher.  Again, the signal changes to mixed, with the strong scent of a downtrend in the air.

OEW indicates a downtrend may be underway, with our next support level somewhere below ~2650.

For the S&P500 ($SPX), the ADX now sits at 20, with the bearish directional indicator (DI-) rising sharping after the cross over two weeks ago, highlight an increasingly strong bearish trend.

2018-07-01 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-07-01 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The 2740 price level offered no support last week and the S&P closed below the lower channel and the 50-day on the 27th.  The positive news in this otherwise downbeat update?  The S&P recovered, and starts this week above both of those support areas. Similar to early May, but not quite as strong.

2018-07-01 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-07-01 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

From a weekly perspective, prices also found support at the long-term lower channel from early 2016.

If all those support areas around 2700 don’t hold, the next support level is in the 2650’s (per OEW and the 200-day/40-week moving averages).  And after that we head back to the lowest closing price in February (2581).  On the upside, 2787 is still the target for confirming a move higher.

A short trading week is on tap, with U.S. markets closed for Independence Day celebrations on July 4th.  Hopefully you’re looking forward to some vacation time in the near future as well!


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 24th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
As mentioned in last Sunday’s outlook, the S&P headed lower last week. Nothing crazy, but there are some new price levels to watch.

Most of the indexes are remain above their 20/50-day moving averages.  The Dow Jones continues to underperform ($INDU), and now sits below the 20 AND 50 day.  The S&P500 ended the week resting directly on its 20 day.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-24 – US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price/volume action last week. And OEW remains in an uptrend.

Now let’s take a closer look at the S&P ($SPX). After rising in early June, the ADX line is heading lower again. The ADX never rose above 20, so the uptrend wasn’t/isn’t very strong. Last week saw the bearish directional indicator (DI-) cross above the bullish directional indicator (DI+), so now we’ve got bearish price action on top of that weakening trend. Time to dust off those momentum indicators!

2018-06-24 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-06-24 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

I mentioned the likelihood of sideways and even falling price action last week, given that we ran into the upper channel and summer vacation season (i.e. reduced trading activity) was about to start. You may have also noticed that the mid-March high (2786.57) is almost exactly where the latest rally topped out on June 12 (2786.85). We’ll need to see a decisive move above 2787 to know whether this uptrend can continue.

Short-term, there seems to be some support around 2740, otherwise look to the 50-day and lower channel (~1.5% and 2% below the current price, respectively). And lets hope this isn’t a big sideways channel between the February low (2581) and the March high (2787).


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 17th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
A fairly quiet week for the markets, price-wise; it was anything but quiet when it came to the news.  Every day there was something new:  G7 fallout, a summit with North Korea, and new tariffs on Chinese goods.  Any one of these could have soured investors, yet prices were resilient.

All the indexes are remain above their 20/50-day moving averages.  The Dow Jones ($INDU) briefly touched the 20 on Friday, but recovered before the close.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-17 – US Stock Market Averages

The markets saw some distribution last week, but that likely has more to do with options expiration than any market weakness.  For now, the count remains within acceptable limits, so no change in this signal.

OEW remains in an uptrend, and Tony is reiterating his call for 3,000 on the S&P.

Now that those signals are out of the way, let’s take a closer look at the S&P ($SPX).

2018-06-17 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-06-17 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

No change in the ADX this week.   Near term, it looks like the S&P may take a breather again (sideways or even slightly downward price action), as we bounced off the upper price channel last week.  As far as support, the 50-day moving average sits ~2% below the current price, while the lower channel is ~3% away.

Not many new break-outs last week. Many of the stocks I watch are digesting their recent run-ups, so that’s not too surprising. We may have to wait a few weeks to see which sectors power the uptrend further, as we just ran into that resistance at the upper channel and the summer travel season kicks off in two weeks with the 4th of July holiday in the U.S.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 10th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Some solid gains for U.S. equities puts the markets in full-on uptrend mode to start this week.

All the indexes are above their 20/50-day moving averages.

Price Charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-10 – US Stock Market Averages

We experienced some accumulation last week (higher volume up days).  Now that we’re entered June, I doubt we’ll see an increase in overall trading volume until the summer is over.  Combined with the lack of recent distribution, I feel confident moving this signal from mixed to uptrend this week.

Tony’s back at the controls this week, and as expected OEW remains in an uptrend.

Now that those signals are out of the way, let’s take a look at the ADX again.

2018-06-10 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-06-10 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

With the DI+ making a clear crossover of the DI-, the ADX inflection last week appears to be signaling a new entry point.   Lets hope this is August 2017 and not May 2014, but plan and prepare for either.  The daily chart also shows the beginnings of a new channel for the S&P500; we’re still a few points away from the potential upper bound.

Several recent break-outs in my growth stock watch list have reached profit taking zones (20% gains), which is a welcome site. Income stocks continue to be a victim of their own success, as their prices are just too high to justify an investment at this point.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 3rd = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Stocks spent another week moving sideways to close out the month of May…sell in may and go away indeed. No change in the overall signal and 2 out of 3 signals still in uptrend.

The moving average signal remains in an uptrend, although the Dow Jones did close below its 20-day moving average.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-03 – US Stock Market Averages

Trading volume was below average, and we added two distribution days last week, so the signal remains mixed.

Tony will be back this week, and I’m still assuming OEW’s uptrend remains in place.

The ADX fell even further and starts this week around 10, with the DI+ and DI- on equal footing. We’ve been here a few times recently: May 2014, April 2015, August 2017. In each case, we saw some pretty major moves within 5 months or so (2014 and 2015 were to the downside, 2017 was to the upside). Momentum indicators remain the tool of the day, for now.

2018-06-03 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-06-03 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

And last but not least, the S&P500 found support at the long-term trendline.

2018-06-03 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-06-03 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment