Weekend Stock Market Outlook – January 29 2023

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 29th = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

ANALYSIS
No change in the stock market outlook; an uptrend signal remains in place as we close out January.

The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 2.5%, and broke above the long-term trendline that’s acted as resistance since January 2022 (~16% decline).  The index is up 6% for the month/year, with 2 trading days left in January.  The NASDAQ was up 4.3% for the week, and sites 11% higher this month.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of January 29 2023

The index found support at both the 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. The ADX and price volume signals continue to show bullish trends, and we’re seeing a low level of institutional selling (only 3 distribution days over the past 5 weeks).

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of January 29 2023

The Elliott Wave signal remains bearish; though rising above 4100 invalidates the current Minor 2 wave count.  The SPX wasn’t quite ready to head back toward the October low, putting in a head-fake 2 weeks ago and heading higher.  A second wave can retrace 100% of a Wave 1 advance, so no relabeling of the waves just yet.  Instead, two alternative counts (one bearish, one bullish) are presented at the end of the post for consideration.

COMMENTARY
So…GAME OVER bears? Sure feels that way…but feelings have no place in your investing process. So let’s look at the data.

2022 Q4 GDP showed an annualized increase of 2.9% (BEA”s “advanced” estimate). On a year-over-year basis, GDP rose +1.0% vs. 2021 Q4, which is the smallest Y/Y increase this year.

December data for Consumption Expenditures (PCE) “dropped” to +5.0% Y/Y (vs. +5.5% in November). Core PCE came in at +4.4% Y/Y, down from +4.7% in November. For some perspective, 1989 was the last time Core PCE was at these levels. Care to guess how high the interest rates were? The Fed Funds Rate averaged 9.2% in 1989 (HT Hedgeye).

So U.S. economic data releases were middle of the road; nothing REALLY good or bad. Market participants took this as a sign that the Fed will be dovish at their meeting this week, in terms of their interest rate policy, and the broader indexes rallied.

That said, a ridiculous amount of option volume didn’t hurt either; a quick look at U.S. Equity Options Volumes (NYSE), Friday’s session saw the third highest trading volume since late 2019…regardless of type (weekly, monthly, quarterly).  I suspect that the ranking applies even further back, but the data isn’t immediately available.  0DTE index options played an oversized role (again).  The takeaway is that leverage, via options, supports the recent rally, rather than underlying fundamental or economic changes.

Another big earnings week coming up.  So far, ~25% of the S&P500 has reported Q4 earnings; Sales growth is up ~5%, earnings growth is down ~3%.

The most anticipated earnings releases scheduled for the week are Amazon #AMZN, Apple #AAPL, SoFi #SOFI, AMD #AMD, Meta Platforms #META, Alphabet #GOOGL, Exxon Mobil #XOM, UPS #UPS, GM #GM, and Pfizer #PFE.

More importantly, at least from a market perspective, is the FOMC meeting this week (Tuesday) and subsequent interest rate announcement and news conference (Wednesday).

Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.
–Stanley Druckenmiller

In my opinion, the bear market isn’t over; it’s hibernating.  But as Ed Seykota said, “The trend is your friend…until the end when it bends.”  So far, the data from January says the trend is up.

Best To Your Week!

Extended Intermediate (X) Wave (Bearish Alternative)

Primary [1] In Progress (Bullish Alternative)

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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Weekend Stock Market Outlook – January 22 2023

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 22nd = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues with an uptrend, with 2 of 3 signals showing bullish price action.

The S&P500 ($SPX) ended the week 0.7% lower, with the long-term downtrend continuing to act as resistance.  Thanks to year-end consolidation, the SPX now has a shallow uptrend as well.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of January 22 2023

In terms of moving averages, the 200-day continues to provided resistance, while the 50-day moving average switched to a support role since November.

The ADX and price volume signals continue to show bullish trends.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of January 22 2023

The Elliott Wave signal remains bearish.  The current count suggests the beginning of a Minor 3, which would take the SPX back to the October low.  On the flip side, rallying back above 4100 would be extremely bullish and require a relabeling.

COMMENTARY
Apologies for the short/late post last week. After a weekend trip, I returned to a cold home and a busted furnace. A good reminder that owning a home has a lot of positives, but it definitely meets the definition of a liability from a personal finance perspective.

The technical set-up (noted above) looks promising, but underlying economic data isn’t keeping pace. For instance, Wednesday’s sell-off coincided with the release of December retail data, which showed sales falling 1.1% month over month. Retailers like Macy’s ($M), Kohl’s ($KSS), Nordstrom ($JWN), etc., rely heavily on the holiday season for annual profitability; so much so that “Black Friday” gets its name from the expectation that it’s the day that puts retailers into the “black” for the year (i.e. negative numbers / losses in red ink, positive numbers / profits in black ink). This year, the hope was that holiday sales would eliminate high inventory levels…profitability would be a welcome bonus.

You probably heard something about the U.S. debt-ceiling last week as well. On Thursday, the Treasury announced that the U.S. exceeded its self-imposed debt limit of $31.4 trillion. Now, the Treasury will enact so-called “extraordinary measures,” to meet financial obligations. Per the Brookings Institute, the U.S. debt ceiling has been raised 20 times since 2001…basically once a year. Since the debt ceiling comes from Congress, there’s a lot of rhetoric and posturing until the very last minute and then a deal gets pushed through. With regard to investing, it’s basically a nothing-burger until the June/July timeframe.

And on Friday, monthly options expired.  Normally, quarterly option expiration is all that’s worth mentioning (i.e. triple/quadruple witching days), but over the past year, the influence of non-quarterly opex has increased. In fact, $1.3 trillion worth of options were in play on Friday, which is the biggest non-quarterly expiration EVER.  That’s a lot of leverage, and definitely impacts volume/price movements.

Behind the scenes, so to speak, YOLO option trading has gone from retail traders to institutions, from WallStreetBets to Wall Street.  Market makers and institutions are exploiting a loophole account financing using index options; specifically the daily contracts, which are called Zero Days ‘Til Expiration or “0DTE”.

Share of 0DTE SPX Options

Source: Rocky Fishman – Goldman Sachs

If an institution opens and closes a trade intraday, no additional collateral is required because the account balance doesn’t change at the end of the day when the books are closed.  In the end, it’s another form of leverage, used to buy a levered instrument, to exploit intraday price movement, which ultimately moves intraday prices thanks to the volume of trades…what could go wrong?

Earnings season is in full swing this week, after an underwhelming start.  So far, ~10% of the S&P500 reported Q4 results.  Sales are up ~7%, while earnings are down ~6%.  Those figures broadly align with the higher prices / higher costs theme resulting from inflation. On Friday, we get December data for Consumption Expenditures (PCE); the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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Weekend Stock Market Outlook – January 15 2023

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 15th = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook flipped to an uptrend last week.

The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 2.7%, climbing past the 50-day moving average and taking aim at the 200-day.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of January 15 2023

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of January 15 2023

The ADX signal remained in bullish territory, while price and volume moved into an uptrend on Wednesday.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of January 15 2023

Elliott Wave analysis remains bearish.  RSI(5) shows the index is overbought, and MACD crossover is less bullish than it would appear due to low volume consolidation over the holiday period.  Reclaiming 4100 would likely change to this indicator back to bullish.

COMMENTARY
Short week (markets closed Monday in honor of MLK), short post!

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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Weekend Stock Market Outlook – January 08 2023

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 8th = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Signals: Mixed
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook starts the week in a downtrend, but could swing to an uptrend with a bit more positive momentum.

The S&P500 ($SPX) kicked off 2023 with a win, getting back to the 50-day moving average with a gain of 1.8% during its first week of trading.  Looking back to 2022, the index ended the year down a smidge over 18%.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of January 08 2023

The ADX reading flipped to bullish and price/volume starts the year mixed, thanks to Friday’s strong price action.  The move qualified as a “follow-through” on the rally attempt that started December 29th. As a reminder, a “follow-through” is defined as:

  • >1.5% price increase
  • Higher than average trading volume
  • 4-10 days after a rally start

Why “mixed” and not an uptrend?  Because the index remains below the 50-day moving average.  A move above that level on heavy volume will change the signal, and could come as soon as Monday.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of January 08 2023

Elliott Wave analysis received an update, but remains bearish.  The set-up looks similar to the late August / early September in terms of the indicators (i.e. counter-trend rally / Minor 2, price near the 34-day moving average, MACD approaching a cross-over).

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of January 08 2023

The longer-term view of Elliott Wave continues to match-up well with the wave count posted last May.

COMMENTARY
Happy New Year and a warm welcome to 2023!  We’re back in the saddle after some much needed time off.  Hopefully you used the weekly outlook to protect your capital in 2022, or at least limit the damage.  2023 promises to be a harder trading environment than last year, thanks to the coming earnings recession, elevated inflation, and reaction to Fed policy, so buckle up.

Recapping last week’s rally, Friday’s jump coincided with Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and “ISM Services” reports. First, December Non-Farm Payrolls were higher than expected, with unemployment at a 50-year low, but down a bit from November. Sort of not too hot, not too cold.

Perhaps more importantly, December U.S. ISM Services showed a contraction in December! Per Hedgeye, one specific data point stood out: “New orders (a gauge for future demand) fell close to -20% to 45.2”! Why would a contraction be bullish? Because market participants interpreted that data as a sign the Fed will reverse interest rate hikes soon. Yes, they’re still hoping for a pivot.  And you already know hope is not an investing strategy.

If the Fed is to be believed, a pause is coming at some point this year. But one data point won’t shift the policy, even if it’s in the required direction.

Speaking of the Fed, we’ve got some event risk on tap this week, starting with Fed Chair Powell speaking at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, in Stockholm, Sweden on Tuesday.  Then on Thursday, December CPI data is released prior to market open.

And if that’s not enough, earnings season kicks off this week with heavyweights in the banking sectior: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C). Factset analysts expect S&P500 companies to report a combined earnings decline of -2.8% for Q4 2022 (i.e. the start of that earnings recession).

Best To Your Year!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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Weekend Stock Market Outlook – December 18 2022

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 18th = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Signals: Mixed
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook slides back into downtrend with two weeks left in 2022. Two of the three signals are now bearish, and price/volume isn’t far behind. Considering how marginal the signal was the prior week, you probably took action already. Right?

The S&P500 ($SPX) fell ~2% last week, dropping back to the 50-day moving average, after moving above the 200-day moving average and challenging the long-term trendline earlier in the week.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of December 18 2022

The ADX reading is back to bearish, after rebounding slightly.

Price and volume shifts to mixed, with the SPX looking for support at the 50-day moving average.  Friday’s trading volume comes with an asterisk, thanks to another “quadruple witching” day. 4 TRILLION dollars options expiration tends to have that effect.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of December 18 2022

The bear market rally fell apart last week, confirming the end of the Intermediate (X), counter-trend rally. Elliott Wave analysis shows the SPX in a 3rd wave, tentatively labeled as Minute, with resistance at 3918 (Minute [i] low).

COMMENTARY
CPI data for November came in below expectations, continuing to show inflation peaked earlier this year and heading in the right direction.  Headline inflation increased 7.1% year-over-year, versus an expectation of 7.3%. Core inflation increased 6.0% , slightly below the forecast of 6.1%.  Definitely good news, but the year over year figures are still too high, opinions on Fed policy notwithstanding.

Speaking of the Fed, they raised rates by 0.50% (as did the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, in case you were wondering).  The FOMC press conference was more of the same; journalists STILL trying to tease out a timeline for the Fed to pivot (i.e. pause rate hikes or cut interest rates).

November retail sales fell more than expected, month-over-month (-0.6% vs -0.15%).  Black Friday and Cyber Monday weren’t as impactful this year, as many retailers started their sales early in an attempt to clear out inventory.  Regardless, that’s not indicative of a strong consumer, and won’t be kind to Q4 earnings.

A full week of trading this week, but expect lower trading volume as the weekend approaches.  Christmas falls on Sunday this year, so no market update next week.  The markets are closed the next day (Monday, December 26) in observance of the holiday. And New Year’s Day is the following Sunday (2 weeks from today), and the markets will be closed the following Monday (January 2) as well.

Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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Weekend Stock Market Outlook – December 11 2022

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 11th = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Mixed
    • Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook stays in an uptrend by the tiniest of margins, while U.S. market participants await the next shoes to drop (inflation data and a rate hike).

The S&P500 ($SPX) fell 3.4% last week, dropping below the 200-day moving average.  The index failed to breakthrough a long-term, bearish trendline dating back to mid-January, instead breaking the recent bullish trendline from October-November.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of December 11 2022

The ADX shifted to mixed, with DI indicators essentially overlapping and the indicator itself falling below 20.  It’s as close to a bearish as you can get without flipping the signal.

Price/Volume shows a small amount of distribution last week.  The signal is still in an uptrend per the criteria, but trading action is similar to the beginning of last downtrend (mid-August).

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of December 11 2022

Elliott Wave remains bearish, as it has for the entire rally.  The ending diagonal pattern (mentioned last week) fell apart when the SPX dropped back to 3900 and the 34-day moving average. Adding the negative MACD cross over and RSI divergence added insult to injury.

Upon further review, I overlooked a subdividing Minute [iii] wave (mid-November).   A similar pattern emerged in early October during the Minor A wave: volatile, 1-day waves for Minute [i] and [ii], followed by a subdivided Minute [iii].  The fractal nature of market price movements means patterns often repeat themselves, and that’s the case here as well.

The refreshed count reveals the 5-wave Minute pattern ended at the high on December 1st, which also marks the end of a Minor C.  Most importantly, the completion of the 3-wave Minor pattern marks the end of the Intermediate (X), counter-trend rally.

Labeling reversals in market direction is challenging.  At the moment, last week’s price action matches a pattern that played out the week of August 22, so Tuesday’s low is likely the first Minute wave of the next phase of the bear market.

COMMENTARY
Last week’s November Producer Price Index (PPI) data was higher than expected on a month over month basis, but shows inflation pressure easing from a year over year view.

Year over Year Change (%)
Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov
PPI 11.2 9.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4
Core PPI 6.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.4 4.9

This is good news for Main Street; PPI measures “the average change in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output over time”, so we’re paying less for goods and services.

This is bad news for Wall Street; falling PPI generally means lower earnings for public companies, because: (Price – Cost) * Quantity = Profit.  Companies reduce price to maintain or increase volume, which can be done much faster than reducing costs (e.g. labor or supply chain contracts).  Referencing the final point from last week’s post,

…[Q3] profit margins (earnings) shrank as companies accounted for higher costs for raw materials, debt financing, and labor. Those costs will ultimately determine the type of recession we experience in 2023.

More data is on the way this week, so buckle up! Tuesday (Dec 13th), we get CPI data for November.  Wednesday (Dec 14th), we get the Fed’s decision on the latest interest rate hike at 2:00pm EST, followed by the FOMC press conference at 2:30pm.  U.S. retail sales data for November hits the wires Thursday.

And last but not least, Friday is weekly, monthly, and quarterly option expiration.

Some food for thought regarding price patterns mentioned above: After the last market top in mid-August, the market fell below the 13-day moving average on increased but below-average trading volume.  That sell-off generated a negative cross-over in the MACD indicator.  Then the SPX rallied slightly, only to sell-off on August 26 in response to hawkish comments from Powell at the Fed’s Jackson Hole press conference.  Entering this week, you’d be forgiven if you had a sense of deja vu; the only thing we’re missing is a low volume rally followed by a hawkish speech from the Fed…

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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Weekend Stock Market Outlook – December 04 2022

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 4th = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, with the same characteristics mentioned last week; an aging, counter-trend rally with weak signal strength.

The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 1.1% last week, closing just above the 200-day moving average.  The index is now ~7% above the 50-day and starts the week at a long-term trendline dating back to mid-January.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of December 04 2022

The ADX and price & volume continue remain bullish but weak (ADX @ 20, trading volume below average).  The SPX registered 1 distribution day over the past 5 weeks, which would be great if trading volumes weren’t so low.

Elliott Wave analysis still shows the SPX in the final stage of the Intermediate (X), counter-trend rally, but the Minute [v] wave count from last week required adjustment because of how far the market sold off Monday and Tuesday.  As of today, the Minutte waves appear to form an ending diagonal pattern (3-3-3-3-3).

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of December 04 2022

It’s also possible that the entire Minor C wave is an ending diagonal, which would cause a relabeling of the Minute waves. That pattern needs a few more days before it can be confirmed (i.e. a test of the 4000 price level).

COMMENTARY
Just like last year, an early December speech by the Fed chair sent investors scrambling.  Only this time around, the bears ran for cover.  There was nothing new in the speech verses Powell’s prior statements.  It’s investors who have lowered the bar for what passes as bullish commentary. Chairman Powell confirmed a 0.5% rate hike in December, along with the “higher for longer” narrative, while conceding that Fed policy decisions show up in data with a lag.

Thursday’s PCE data showed that the Fed’s favorite inflation measure remained high in the month of October, although it did retreat from September’s increase.

Year over Year Change (%)
Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct
PCE 7.0 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.0
Core PCE 5.0 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.0

The personal savings rate for October also came out Thursday, showing a drop to 2.3%, which is the second lowest reading since 1959 (July 2005 was the all time low at 2.1%).

Last but not least, Friday’s payroll data surprised to the upside, on both employment and wages, despite recent layoffs in the tech sector.

In summary, rate hikes decreased inflation readings since the June peak, and energy prices also retreated.  Consumers maintained spending levels using a combination of personal savings and credit card debt.  And overall unemployment remains near historical lows. So far, that sounds a lot like a soft landing for main street, which also shows up in continued top-line growth for Wall Street (i.e. corporate revenue).

That said, profit margins (earnings) shrank as companies accounted for higher costs for raw materials, debt financing, and labor.  Those costs will ultimately determine the type of earnings recession we experience in 2023.

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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