Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 17th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
A fairly quiet week for the markets, price-wise; it was anything but quiet when it came to the news.  Every day there was something new:  G7 fallout, a summit with North Korea, and new tariffs on Chinese goods.  Any one of these could have soured investors, yet prices were resilient.

All the indexes are remain above their 20/50-day moving averages.  The Dow Jones ($INDU) briefly touched the 20 on Friday, but recovered before the close.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-17 – US Stock Market Averages

The markets saw some distribution last week, but that likely has more to do with options expiration than any market weakness.  For now, the count remains within acceptable limits, so no change in this signal.

OEW remains in an uptrend, and Tony is reiterating his call for 3,000 on the S&P.

Now that those signals are out of the way, let’s take a closer look at the S&P ($SPX).

2018-06-17 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-06-17 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

No change in the ADX this week.   Near term, it looks like the S&P may take a breather again (sideways or even slightly downward price action), as we bounced off the upper price channel last week.  As far as support, the 50-day moving average sits ~2% below the current price, while the lower channel is ~3% away.

Not many new break-outs last week. Many of the stocks I watch are digesting their recent run-ups, so that’s not too surprising. We may have to wait a few weeks to see which sectors power the uptrend further, as we just ran into that resistance at the upper channel and the summer travel season kicks off in two weeks with the 4th of July holiday in the U.S.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 10th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Some solid gains for U.S. equities puts the markets in full-on uptrend mode to start this week.

All the indexes are above their 20/50-day moving averages.

Price Charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-10 – US Stock Market Averages

We experienced some accumulation last week (higher volume up days).  Now that we’re entered June, I doubt we’ll see an increase in overall trading volume until the summer is over.  Combined with the lack of recent distribution, I feel confident moving this signal from mixed to uptrend this week.

Tony’s back at the controls this week, and as expected OEW remains in an uptrend.

Now that those signals are out of the way, let’s take a look at the ADX again.

2018-06-10 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-06-10 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

With the DI+ making a clear crossover of the DI-, the ADX inflection last week appears to be signaling a new entry point.   Lets hope this is August 2017 and not May 2014, but plan and prepare for either.  The daily chart also shows the beginnings of a new channel for the S&P500; we’re still a few points away from the potential upper bound.

Several recent break-outs in my growth stock watch list have reached profit taking zones (20% gains), which is a welcome site. Income stocks continue to be a victim of their own success, as their prices are just too high to justify an investment at this point.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 3rd = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Stocks spent another week moving sideways to close out the month of May…sell in may and go away indeed. No change in the overall signal and 2 out of 3 signals still in uptrend.

The moving average signal remains in an uptrend, although the Dow Jones did close below its 20-day moving average.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-06-03 – US Stock Market Averages

Trading volume was below average, and we added two distribution days last week, so the signal remains mixed.

Tony will be back this week, and I’m still assuming OEW’s uptrend remains in place.

The ADX fell even further and starts this week around 10, with the DI+ and DI- on equal footing. We’ve been here a few times recently: May 2014, April 2015, August 2017. In each case, we saw some pretty major moves within 5 months or so (2014 and 2015 were to the downside, 2017 was to the upside). Momentum indicators remain the tool of the day, for now.

2018-06-03 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-06-03 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

And last but not least, the S&P500 found support at the long-term trendline.

2018-06-03 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-06-03 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 28th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Stocks extended their “spring break”, spending a second week in a row moving sideways.  This is essentially what the ADX indicator has been signaling as well (i.e. weak or flat trend). So no change in the overall signal this week, with 2 out of 3 signals showing an uptrend.

No change in the moving average signal; all the major indexes are above their 20 and 50-day moving averages.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-05-28 – US Stock Market Averages

Trading volume continues to be below average, but we did see some accumulation last week…another positive sign.

Objective Elliott Wave’s uptrend remains in place (Tony has been MIA due to medical issues, but always pulls through).

From a long term perspective, the uptrend since our last correction remains in play (price lows in February and November 2016).

2018-05-28 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-05-28 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

On a daily view (shorter-term), the ADX weakened further over the past 5 trading sessions, and starts this week around 12. The DI+ and DI- are basically equal. So basically no trend to speak of…a traders market, if you will. During times like this, it’s best to rely on momentum indicators for your technical signals.

2018-05-28 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-05-28 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow, in observance of Memorial Day, our time to remember the people who died while serving in our country in the armed forces.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 21st= Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Stocks took a bit of a breather last week, so no change in the outlook to start this week. 2 out of 3 signals continue show an uptrend.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-05-21 – US Stock Market Averages

All the major indexes remained above their 20 and 50-day moving averages, leaving the moving average signal in an uptrend.

Trading volume continues to be the biggest weakness for the market since January. The S&P picked up 3 distribution days last week, elevating the count to 7; the last 10 trading sessions the S&P closed lower resulted in distribution days. On the positive side, 3 distribution days will come off the count next week. And I witnessed more break-outs last week, and a few even had decent trading volume!

OEW uptrend remains in place.

I’m still waiting to see if we can move past last Monday’s high, or if that becomes a point of resistance for a new descending triangle.

2018-05-21 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-05-21 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

As far as the ADX is concerned, the DI+ remains higher than the DI- (barely), so it does signal an uptrend. But a falling ADX, combined with a low value (<20) suggests a really weak trend. Until the ADXv value can climb back above 20, sideways price action is likely. At least the latest rally hasn't sold off with the same volatility we saw during the last few attempts (February, March, and April).

2018-05-21 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

The lower bound of the long term price channel currently sits around 2660, which is above the 200-day moving average, but not the 50-day.  And in a first for 2018, we had a down week without higher trading volume; another positive sign for this fledgling uptrend.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 13th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
As expected, we didn’t wait long for a trend change.  2 out of three signals flipped last week, so we start the week of May 13th in an uptrend.

With the Russell 2000 leading the way, all the major price indexes are above their 20 and 50-day moving average, which puts this signal back in the green, so to speak.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-05-14 – US Stock Market Averages

Last week’s rally above the 50-day moving average wasn’t accompanied by higher trading volumes, which doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in the current rally.  I expect a retest of the 50-day before we really get going, if we really get going, so this indicator remains mixed.

OEW flipped to an uptrend last week.

The descending triangle pattern I’ve been tracking ended last week, as prices crossed the upper trendline.   Support held at the 200 day and at the 2,581 price level. The ADX indicator switched over to the bullish side, though it shows a weakening trend (aligns with the falling trading volumes as we rallied above the 50-day moving average).

2018-05-14 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-05-14 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

If past is precedence, we’ll have to wait another week before learning whether this rally will hold; we could even see a new descending triangle form.  Take a look at the March timeframe in the chart below.  We broke above an upper trendline, and within 7 trading days the S&P was looking for support.  The breakout was on lower trading volume, and the ADX showed a weakening trend (similar to the current breakout). Hopefully, we’ll see a confirmation soon (late December), rather than a head-fake (mid-March).

2018-05-14 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-05-14 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

The lower bound of the long term price channel continues to hold, and the S&P broke through the downward sloping trendline limiting advances since March.  A solid earnings season could only be held back for so long.  However, even with that fundamental strength, we haven’t seen higher trading volume for positive weekly closes since January (!).

My watch list isn’t exactly setting the world on fire at the moment.  Growth stocks are breaking out, but those breakouts leave a lot to be desired.  Income plays have and continue to be under pressure from Fed interest rate hikes.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 6th = Downtrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Mixed
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
Market prices made some progress last week, finding support near the 200-day moving average.  But the downtrend is still hanging on by a few points. Basically, we’re looking for a weekly close above the 50-day or below the 200-day to confirm which of the technical patterns we’ve been following will win out (mid-term descending triangle or long-term price channel). Since the gap between those two price levels is ~2.5%, we shouldn’t have to wait much longer.

The Nasdaq joins the Russell 2000 above the 50-day moving average, thanks to Friday’s rally.  The other indexes sit just below that level, so it won’t take to change this signal to an uptrend.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-05-07 – US Stock Market Averages

While Thursday’s bounce came with higher trading volume (good), Friday’s rally to the 50-day had lower trading volume (bad). So price / volume action remains mixed.  Growth stocks with solid fundamentals have responded positively to earnings strength; what’s not clear is whether those gains will hold (as mentioned last week).

OEW maintains a medium term downtrend, but expects that trend to end soon, and for markets to take another run at all time highs.

The descending triangle pattern remains intact, and continues to narrow, with an upper trendline sitting at ~2,675 (almost the same as the 50-day moving average). The floor remains at 2,581. The ADX indicator is rising ever so slightly, but remains bearish.

2018-05-07 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-05-07 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The longer term price channel has seen a lot of action recently, with prices bouncing off that level for the second straight week and closing near the highs. On the downside, the last two weeks have seen lower closing prices on above average volume.  Today, the lower bound is roughly the same as the 200-day moving average.

2018-05-07 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-05-07 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

 


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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