Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 19th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Strong trading to close out last week puts us into week 12 of the current uptrend.  A shorter window of opportunity this week, with U.S. markets closed Thursday, and open until 1pm EST on Friday, for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

The U.S. market indexes remain in good shape with respect to their moving averages.  All the indexes are above their 50 day moving averages, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 start the week below their 20-day moving averages.

Price Charts for $INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-11-19 – US Stock Market Averages

The Russell 2000 closed below it’s 50-day 3 days in a row last week; a potential warning sign, as it has been the weakest of the indexes.  But a strong Thursday and Friday session enabled the Russell to reclaim both the 20 and 50 day levels.  The NYSE also faltered last week, and now rests on the 50-day.

Price and volume action is still okay; not too good, not too bad. As mentioned last week, flat bases remain the most abundant chart pattern for growth investing, so be on the lookout for high quality set-ups (5 week minimum, high volume breakouts, etc.).

And finally, OEW shows the uptrend is still intact.



If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 12th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
We’re entering the 11th week of the current uptrend, although last week was the first lower weekly close in almost 2 months for a couple of the indexes.

The U.S. market indexes begin the week in good shape, with only 1 index looking for support at a key level.  The Russell 2000 continues to the be the weakest index, with regard to moving averages.  It starts this week just above the 50-day moving average.  The other indexes sit just above their 20-day moving averages.

Price charts for $INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-11-12 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action didn’t improve last week, but it didn’t degrade either.  Several leading growth stocks rocketed higher after reporting earnings (e.g. NVDA).  As mentioned last week, most leaders are extended from proper buy points, so now is not the time to initiate new positions.

Since we haven’t had much in the way of proper corrections, flat bases have been the best technical entry point for initiating new positions and/or adding shares.

And finally, OEW shows the uptrend is still intact.



 

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 5th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
We’re entering the 10th week of the current uptrend, which has shown no signs of stopping.

Most of the U.S. market averages begin the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.  The Russell 2000 was unable to retake its 20 day during the week and sits just below that level, while the NYSE is just above the 20 day.

Price Action for $INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-11-05 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action is still okay.  Most leaders are still in profit taking zones (>20% from buy points), so you haven’t missed your chance to lock in gains.

In the latest weekend update, OEW continues to indicate an uptrend is in play.

I’ve been reading a lot of market commentary, attributing the general strength of stocks to the amount of money being used for “passive investing”.  I’ll over simplify here, and say that means putting your money into mutual funds and ETFs that track a group of stocks (typically averages or indexes)

In the past, a market index was just an indicator…the average price performance of a set of stocks.  It was just a measurement tool.  Today, there are all kinds of investments that allow you to allocate your money just like an index; basically buying all the components of the index, both good and bad.

When buying an index ETF, for example, the ETF attempts to represent all stocks in that index…both good and bad.  As more money goes into a stock, the price increases.  If we invest in all the stocks that make up an index, the price of all the stocks increase, and so does the price of the index.  And so our markets grind higher.

Beneath the surface, the fear is that stock prices are disconnected from the underlying value of a company.  Money isn’t being invested in companies because their fundamentals are strong or they have good technical patterns.  Instead, money is being invested in stocks that make up an index, regardless of company performance.

The whole situation reminds me of taking a thermometer and putting it next to a lightbulb to show that you have a fever.  The thermometer is just measuring the temperature of the environment, regardless of whether its in your mouth or next to a light bulb.  An index ETF is just measuring the change in price of stocks included in the index, regardless of whether those companies are performing well or if they’re being bought solely because they’re part of that index.

If this development is true, it’s neither good nor bad.  It just is…the key is remembering that you can’t fight the market.  Regardless of the reason for the markets strength, accept that it is strong and stay vigilant for signs of weakness (e.g. high volume selling).

 



 

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 29th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Another week, and no change in signals…definitely feels like complacency has set in.  But feelings are hard to trade profitably, and the positive trends remain intact.  U.S. markets continue to grind higher.  Volatility has picked up a bit over the past couple weeks, but is still low by all accounts.

U.S. market averages remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Price trends for $INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-10-29 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action is good, thought most leaders are in profit taking zones (>20% from buy points).  Now is a great time to book some gains and let the rest ride until sell signals pop up.

OEW remains in an uptrend and estimates 10% more upside before we see a meaningful correction.



 

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 22nd = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
No change in signals to start this week.  U.S. markets continue to grind higher.  Volatility spiked on Thursday, but otherwise another boring week, market-wise.

The indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Price Action for $INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-10-22 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action is still positive, but there aren’t many new set-ups.  The early September break-outs (even with their low trading volumes) are going strong.  Even the less than ideal set-ups are working…although they are also more likely to give back those gains going forward (e.g. Celgene – $CELG).

OEW remains in a uptrend.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 15th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Another uneventful week in the markets and the latest uptrend rolls on.  After a small spike, volatility resumed its downward trend.

All the indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Price chart for $INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-10-15 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains positive; early September break-outs are holding on to their recent gains.

OEW also remains in a uptrend, citing this uptrend’s ability to grind out higher highs.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 8th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
No changes again this week, after another strong showing by the US markets; volatility is approaching record lows again.  Now is the time when most investors get complacent; don’t be most investors.  Stick to your rules, lock in gains when targets are hit, and always keep your losses small.

All the indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Price action for $INDU,$NYA,$SPX,$USD,$COMPQ,$CRB,$RUT,$GOLD

2017-10-08 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action continues to look positive as more distribution days fell outside the tracking timeframe.

OEW remains in a uptrend; when it completes, be on the lookout for our largest corrections since 2016.  Although, that’s probably on the order to 7-10%, so more of a buying opportunity.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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