Stock Market Outlook – May 17 2026

Posted on May 17, 2026 by J.Wenger

Stock Market Outlook: May 17th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place after the index reached another all time high.

Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Growth outperformed; Emerging Markets, Consumer Discretionary, and Small/MidCap value underperformed.  Inflation data was much higher than expected, pushing interest rates above long-term levels and pressuring other assets.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.1% last week.  The index is:

  • ~8% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~10% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-05-17

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-17

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) led to the upside last week.  Emerging Market Equities ( $EEM) reversed the prior weeks win and led to the downside.  U.S. and Development Market Bonds ( $IEF, $BNDX ) fell to bearish bias after a strong move in long-dated interest rates, while the US Dollar ( $DXY ) moved up to neutral bias.

Weekly performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) including 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-17

S&P500 Sectors

A week after leading to the downside and falling to bearish bias, Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed all other sectors in dramatic fashion, bested the index by than 6%, and reclaimed bullish bias.  Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) was the worst sector.  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) shifted back to neutral bias, while Industrials ( $XLI ) fell to bearish.

Performance comparison table of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-17

S&P500 Investing Styles

Large Cap Growth ( $IEF ) led to the upside, one of two outperformers.  Small and Mid Cap Value ( $IWN, $IJJ ) tied for the worst performance, though High Beta, Mid Cap Growth, and Defensives ( $SPHB, $IJH, $POWA ) weren’t far behind.  There were no bias changes.

Performance comparison table of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-17

COMMENTARY

Markets

The jump in inflation data ( more below ) sent interest rates up, particularly on the long-end of the curve, with renewed fears of a “higher for longer” environment.  30-year U.S. Treasuries hit 5.12% on Friday, the highest level since July of 2007.  Resurgent oil prices and a stronger dollar added to the downward pressure on other asset classes.

According to the International Energy Agency ( IEA ), the crude oil in storage tanks and tanker ships is dwindling at a record pace.  They warned that even with a reopened Hormuz , the market could remain undersupplied until October and raising probabilities of global shortages.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

CPI inflation hit +3.8% in April; up 1.5% verses last years April reading of +2.3%!  That’s a big move.  Interestingly, Core CPI was flat during the same time period, showing the impact of food and energy prices over the past 12 months.

It was the PPI reading that surprised market participants, hitting +6% in April…up from +2.4% at this time last year (yes, that means PPI is more than double last years figure).  Even the month over month was much higher than expected, and that includes an increased to March figures. Core increased to +5.2%, not quite double last years figure of +3.1%, but nothing to celebrate.

Geopolitics

A quiet week in the U.S.-Iran “Maritime Conflict & Ceasefire” saga, as investors focused on the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.  The meetings generated corporate headlines and photo ops, but didn’t not result in any major policy agreements…but be on the lookout for social media diplomacy nonetheless.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

This week is light on high impact news: FOMC meeting minutes on Tuesday.  Lower impact data sets includes pending home sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Flash PMI.

  • Monday: —
  • Tuesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Wednesday: —
  • Thursday: —
  • Friday: —

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.
Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market Outlook – May 10 2026

Posted on May 10, 2026 by J.Wenger

Stock Market Outlook: May 10th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place with the indexes reaching new all time highs.

Emerging Market, Technology, and Momentum outperformed; Oil, Energy, Low Beta underperformed.  Employment data was better than expected, as investors now await the latest CPI/PPI inflation datasets.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 2.3% last week, riding the recent accumulation of technology and semiconductor stocks.  The index is now:

  • ~8% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~10% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-05-10

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-10

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Emerging market equities ( $EEM )  led assets on the upside last week, and Oil ( $USO ) gave back some recent gains. Developed Market Bonds ( $BNDX ) moved up to bullish and the US Dollar ( $DXY) moved down to bearish bias.

Weekly performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) including 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-10

S&P500 Sectors

Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed all other sectors in dramatic fashion.  Energy ( $XLE ) led to the downside, and dropped to bearish bias, along with Utilities ( $XLU ).

Performance comparison table of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-10

S&P500 Investing Styles

It was a risk on week in sector styles, with Momentum ( $MTUM ) and High Beta ( $SPHB ) outpacing the rest o the field.  Low Beta ( $SPLV ) underperformed.  There were no bias changes.

Performance comparison table of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-10

COMMENTARY

Markets

Another week, another set of record highs for U.S. equities.  As of Friday’s close, the S&P500 recorded six consecutive weekly gains, thanks in large part to the technology sector and semiconductor stocks.  Even Bitcoin joined the party, after a rough 6 month stretch, while the Gold correction continues.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

ISM Services PMI slipped slightly in April, but continues to show an expansion in place.

The latest employment data shows a “low hire, low fire” environment remains in place.  March job openings (JOLTs) eased slightly, while private businesses (ADP employment) hired well above forecasts.  NFP was higher year over year and exceeded expectations, despite being lower month over month.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a record low, with inflation and rising gasoline prices the major concerns.

Geopolitics

The U.S.-Iran “Maritime Conflict & Ceasefire” continues to provide financial markets with all the instability they can handle.  Event-driven traders are having a field day in commodities, using various announcements and social media headlines as catalysts.

Underneath those headlines, follow-on and secondary effects from the supply chain disruption continue to grow.  China’s recent export restriction on sulfuric acid adds to the current Hormuz-related shortages, and is expected to further increase prices in a wide swath of industries, from copper mining all the way to fertilizer production.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

This week provides the latest CPI/PPI datasets, along with retail sales and a tentative nomination of the new Fed Chair by the US Senate.

  • Monday: —
  • Tuesday: CPI, Fed Chair Nomination ( tentative )
  • Wednesday: PPI
  • Thursday: Retail Sales
  • Friday: —

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.
Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market Outlook – May 03 2026

Posted on May 3, 2026 by J.Wenger

Stock Market Outlook: May 3rd = Uptrend

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to start the first full week of May.

Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Value outperformed; Gold, Industrials, and Defensives underperformed.  Mag 7 earnings came through for the market again, and investors now turn their attention to this week’s employment data.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9% last week, thanks to a strong move higher on Thursday.  The index is now:

  • ~6% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~8% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-05-03

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-03

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) led asset prices higher for a second consecutive week.  Gold ( $GLD ) lagged…again.  Emerging Market Bonds ( $PCY ) eased back to neutral bias.

Weekly performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) including 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-03

S&P500 Sectors

Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed last week, ending Technology’s bid for 4 consecutive weeks leading to the upside.  Industrials ( $XLI ) underperformed. Communications ( $XLC ) climbed back bullish bias.

Performance comparison table of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-03

S&P500 Investing Styles

In a bit of a surprise, Large Cap Value ( $IWX ) was the leading sector style.  Defensives ( $POWA ) underperformed.  There were no bias changes.

Performance comparison table of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-03

COMMENTARY

Markets

From a market standpoint, Magnificent 7 earnings didn’t disappoint, again, pushing equities higher midweek. That said, investors didn’t reward every report.  Alphabet’s revenue beat and increased capital expenditure guidance sent shares soaring; Amazon and Apple carried their weight as well. Microsoft’s strong results didn’t provide the same boost in share price. Meta had the worst luck, with investors sending shares lower due to increased capex figures.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

The FOMC held rates steady, in what was likely Chairman Powell’s last press conference.

The first estimate of Q1 GDP came in at +2%, which was slightly below estimates but still a welcome increase year over year.  March PCE, which reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States, came in at +3.5% year over year; Core was +3.2%.  Combined, these datapoints show an inflationary environment in place for much of the first quarter.

ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady in April, continuing the expansion in place since January.

Geopolitics

A quiet week on the geopolitical front, relatively speaking, with the U.S./Iran cease-fire holding and potential deals being discussed through back channels.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

The first full week of May is all about employment data: March Job Openings ( JOLTS ), April employment change ( ADP ), and April Non-farm Payrolls ( NFP ).

  • Monday: —
  • Tuesday: ISM Services, JOLTS
  • Wednesday: ADP Job Openings
  • Thursday: —
  • Friday: NFP, Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.
Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market Outlook – April 26 2026

Posted on April 26, 2026 by J.Wenger

Stock Market Outlook: April 26th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend with equities consolidating near all time highs.

Oil, Technology, and Momentum outperformed; Gold, Healthcare, High Dividend, and Defensives underperformed.  Earnings reports have exceeded expectations so far, and this week’s line-up could have an outsized impact.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.5% last week, consolidating slightly after the historic run-up.  The index is now:

  • ~6% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~7% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-04-26

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-26

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) continues to bounce around, leading asset prices higher last week.  Gold ( $GLD ) was the worst performer. Developed Market Bonds ( $BNDX ) eased back to neutral bias.

Weekly performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) including 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar

Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-26

S&P500 Sectors

Technology ( $XLK ) led sectors to the upside for the 3rd straight week.  Communications and Healthcare ( $XLC, $XLV ) underperformed. Energy ( $XLE ) rallied back to bullish bias, while Communications ( $XLC ) eased back the neutral.

Performance comparison table of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-26

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum ( $MTUM ) outperformed last week, followed closely by High Beta ( $SPHB ). High Dividend and Defensives ( $SPHD, $POWA ) were the worst performers.  Low Beta dropped to bearish bias ( $SPLV ).

Performance comparison table of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-26

COMMENTARY

Markets

The equity market is back to risk-on, and one place that’s readily apparent is semiconductor stocks.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor index rallied almost 10% last week, on the back Intel’s blow-out earnings.

Speaking of earnings, a majority of the companies reporting have exceeded revenue and profit expectations.  Add in the extended cease-fire, and the S&P500 passed 7,000 for the first time last week.

This week has a lot of potential earnings-related volatility, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple reporting.  5 of the Mag 7 represent a lot of market cap in today’s indexes.  All eyes will be on their AI-related spending, especially CAPEX projections.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Retail sales increased in March, thanks in large part of higher gas prices. Flash PMIs were also higher.  Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh didn’t make many waves during his Congressional testimony, sticking to well-worn talking points.  He did mention assessing better models for inflation and the labor market.

Geopolitics

The off again, on again nature of West Asia peace talks kept most people guessing last week, with the only concrete steps being the extension of ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon.  It’s unclear if a weekend assassination attempt on the U.S. President will have any impact on futures markets when they open Sunday evening.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

This week marks Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve Chairman, with markets expecting the committee to keep interest rates steady.  We’ll also get the latest PCE inflation data and our first look at Q1 GDP.

  • Monday: —
  • Tuesday: —
  • Wednesday: FOMC
  • Thursday: PCE, Q1 GDP
  • Friday: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.
Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Stock Market Outlook – April 26 2026

Stock Market Outlook – April 19 2026

Posted on April 19, 2026 by J.Wenger

Stock Market Outlook: April 19th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook returned to an uptrend on Monday, while in the process of a historic move to new all time highs.

Bitcoin, Emerging Markets, Technology and High Beta names led assets higher, while Oil, Energy, and Low Beta underperformed.  CTAs reversed their recent short positioning, pushing equity prices higher as West Asia headlines took down oil and energy.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 4.8% last week, rallying further from September lows and reclaiming widely followed moving averages.  The index is now:

  • ~5% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~7% above the 200-day moving average

We received confirmation of the new uptrend, via the second signal, in short order last week, with the ADX moving to bullish on Monday.  And the OBV crossover joined the other indicators in the green later in the week.

Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-04-19

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-19

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) led assets higher again last week, but Emerging Market Equities were a close second ( $EEM ).  Oil ( $USO ) fell on West Asia headlines ( more commentary in the Geopolitics section ), but is still up more than 50% since moving to bullish bias.  Bitcoin, Developed Market and Emerging Market Bonds ( $IBIT, $BNDX, $PCY ) regained bullish bias.  

Weekly performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) including 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar

Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-19

S&P500 Sectors

Same situation as the last review:  Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed and Energy ( $XLE ) sold off.  Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials ( $XLC, $XLY, $XLF) reclaimed bullish bias, and Energy ( $XLE ) dropped to bearish.

Performance comparison table of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-19

S&P500 Investing Styles

All sector styles were higher last week. High Beta ( $SPHB ) led to the upside, while Low Beta ( $SPLV ) brought up the rear. High Dividend ( $SPHD ) was the worst performer and came in flat.  Small Cap and Large Cap growth, along with Quality, got back to bullish bias ( $IWO, $IWF, $QUAL ).

Performance comparison table of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-19

COMMENTARY

Markets

We’ve all just experienced a historic run in U.S. equities.  The SPX rallied almost 11% in over 11 trading sessions, reversing the correction and moving back to all-time highs.  The index has never moved from correction territory to new all time highs that quickly.  Not to mention the Nasdaq’s 13 session win streak, which is the longest since 2009.

Per Goldman Sachs:

The last five sessions have garnered one of “the largest in history” trading demand from CTAs ( Commodity Trading Advisors ), or hedge ⁠funds that ride market trends. – Reported by Reuters

CTA’s were net short U.S. equities as crease-fire and Hormuz rumors began to circulate.  So they were offside of any relief rally and needed to reverse course ( probably long oil too, but that’s just me making an educated guess ).

During rallies, buyers are typically price insensitive; they buy because they want to get in, regardless of price.  During sell-offs, sellers are insensitive; they sell because they want to get out, regardless of price.

The theory is that the CTAs got squeezed, with market participants only willing to sell at higher prices ( i.e. where we are now ) due to expectations an end to hostilities in West Asia.  You might think that all that buying would manifest as higher trading volume for the index, but that didn’t happen.  Despite the large level of CTA buying, other participants were less enthusiastic.

Earnings season kicked off with good showings from major banks, thanks largely to higher interest rates and fees.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Inflation remains an issue.  March Producer Price index came in at +4.0% y/y, 80 basis points higher than this time last year.  Core PPI came in at +3.8% y/y, which is flat versus 2025.

Geopolitics

Despite its uncertain nature, the West Asia ceasefire narrative continues to move global asset prices.  High-level peace talks in Islamabad ended without a long-term agreement on April 13th, but equities and commodities responded to Hormuz-related headlines: closures, blockades, re-openings and everything in between. As of this post, the strait is closed again, and there are rumors of a seized Iranian ship.
i

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Earnings reports pick up steam this week.  The income Chairman of the Federal Reserve testifies before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Tuesday, giving observers a taste of his upcoming tenure.

  • Monday: —
  • Tuesday: Retail Sales, Fed Chair-Designate Warsh Testifies
  • Wednesday: —
  • Thursday: Flash PMIs
  • Friday: Revised Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.
Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Stock Market Outlook – April 19 2026

Stock Market Outlook – April 12 2026

Posted on April 12, 2026 by J.Wenger

Stock Market Outlook: April 12th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook continues with a downtrend until a second indicator confirms the new rally.

Bitcoin, Technology and Momentum plays led assets higher, while Oil, Energy, and High Dividends underperformed.  Markets welcomed cease-fire headlines and volatility retreated across the board, while investors await the start of earnings season this week.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 3.6% last week, rallying further from September lows and reclaiming widely followed moving averages.  The index is now:

  • ~1% above the 50-day moving average
  • ~2% above the 200-day moving average

Institutional activity shows firms buying the dip last week from deeply oversold levels.  Now we’re waiting on another indicator to confirm the bullish move.

  • Average Directional Index: Bearish
    • Trend strength has leveled off, and the directional indicators are nearing a cross-over.
  • Institutional Activity: Bullish
    • Follow-through on Day 6 (Wednesday) confirmed a new rally; trading volume was just okay though.
    • Price also reclaimed the 50-day moving average
  • On-Balance Volume: Bearish
    • Rebounding to the long-term average
Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-04-12

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-12

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) led assets higher last week, reflecting a risk-on mood after the cease-fire announcement.  No surprise that Oil ( $USO ) lagged.  All equities ( $SPY, $VEA, $EEM ) regained bullish bias, along with U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ).   EM bonds and the dollar flipped to neutral.

Weekly performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) including 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar

Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-12

S&P500 Sectors

Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed and Energy ( $XLE ) gave back more of its recent gains.  Industrials, Materials, Real Estate, and Technology ( $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK ) reclaimed bullish bias.

Performance comparison table of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-12

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum ( $MTUM ) more than doubled its gain from last week to lead styles higher. High Dividend ( $SPHD ) was the worst performer and came in flat.  Several styles ( $SPHB, $IJH, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM ) improved to bullish. Small Cap Growth and came up to neutral ( $IWO, $QUAL ).

Performance comparison table of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-12

COMMENTARY

Markets

Now that volatility retreated a bit and price reclaimed key levels, it’s a good time to assess the wreckage.  For example, sectors that held up well during the recent correction ( e.g. Utilities ) are places to investigate further, while those that didn’t see any inflows ( e.g. Healthcare ) are lower probability.

The areas that performed well last week ( i.e. bounced off the lows ) are also overbought, so best to wait for the first retrace/retest of key levels before deploying more capital.  A pause will sort out which moves were just short-covering, and which are actual accumulation.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Durable goods declined 1.4% month over month, and February data was revised lower as well. It was the third straight decline.

The final Q4 GDP figure came in at +0.5%, down from +0.7% in the second estimate, and well below the initial +1.4% level.  So the economy slowed in the 4th quarter, from a rate of change perspective ( i.e. year over year ).

February PCE showed relatively tame inflation, with “Headline” data flat at +2.8% y/y, and “Core” data easing to +3% y/y. On the other hand, March CPI showed “Headline” inflation increasing to +3.3% y/y, and “Core” trending higher to +2.6% y/y.

The FOMC meeting minutes revealed officials still expect to cut interest rates this year, but are open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated.  They also raised their yearly inflation forecast to +2.7%.

April’s preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to record low. Surveys cited consumer concerns relating to higher prices, higher inflation expectations, and economic fallout from global conflict.

Geopolitics

The U.S. and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire last week, which was the catalyst for equities to rally.  Although drone and missile strikes continued throughout the region, both sides claimed “victory” while using back-channels to set-up negotiations.  As of this post, it appears the weekend negotiations didn’t result in any further progress.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Not a lot of macro data catalysts on the schedule, but that shouldn’t be a problem. Earnings season kicks off next week with bog banks, and there’s sure to be daily geopolitical developments.

  • Monday: —
  • Tuesday: March PPI
  • Wednesday: —
  • Thursday: —
  • Friday: —

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.
Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Stock Market Outlook – April 12 2026

Stock Market Outlook – April 05 2026

Posted on April 5, 2026 by J.Wenger

Stock Market Outlook: April 5th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook continues in a downtrend, but the bulls did pick themselves up a bit last week.

Oil, Industrials, Communications, and Momentum led assets higher, while Energy and Bitcoin underperformed.  Volatility crept into employment data, as we wait for the next round of inflation data and geopolitical headlines to hit the wires.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.7% last week, finding some footing at the September lows.  The index is now:

  • ~3% below the 50-day moving average
  • ~1% below the 200-day moving average

Technical indicators showed some signs of bullishness last week:

  • Average Directional Index: Bearish
    • Trend strength has stopped increasing
  • Institutional Activity: Neutral
    • Look for a follow-through day to confirm the new rally
    • A follow-through is a significantly higher close than the prior day, on higher greater volume, and usually occur on Day 4 – 11 of the rally attempt
  • On-Balance Volume: Bearish
    • Inflected higher, but remains below the long-term average
Technical analysis chart of $SPX showing 6 months of candlesticks with 21-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, volume with EMA(50), ADX(14) with +DI and -DI, and OBV with MA(62) through 2026-04-05

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-05

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Another week, another win for Oil ( $USO ).  Bitcoin was the lone asset class in the loss column.  U.S. bonds ( $IEF ) rose to neutral bias.

Weekly performance comparison of major asset class ETFs ($USO, $IBIT, $GLD, $SPY, $VEA, $EEM, $IEF, $BNDX, $PCY, $DXY) including 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns relative to the U.S. Dollar

Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-05

S&P500 Sectors

Industrials and Communications ( XLI & XLC ) outperformed; Energy ( $XLE ) gave back  some of the recent gains.  Industrials ( $XLI ) also reclaimed neutral bias.

Performance comparison table of S&P500 sector ETFs ($XLC, $XLY, $XLP, $XLE, $XLF, $XLV, $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK, $XLU, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-05

S&P500 Investing Styles

All the investing styles scored a win last week: Momentum ( $MTUM ) secured the top spot with a gain of more than 3% and Defensives ( $POWA ) came in last place with 0.6%.  Low Beta and Small Cap Value moved to neutral bias.

Performance comparison table of investment style ETFs ($SPHB, $SPLV, $IWO, $IJH, $IWF, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM, $QUAL, $SPHD, $POWA, $SPY) showing 1-week, 4-week, and bias-shift returns

Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-05

COMMENTARY

Markets

Volatility retreated last week, for both equities and interest rates, thanks to oversold bounces across various asset classes.  A step in the right direction.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Employment data showed higher than expected gains, but came with an asterisk.  Job openings (JOLTS) were steady, and ADP private payrolls beat expectations, so no issues there.  Non-farm payrolls (NFP) was the problem: high volatility makes drawing conclusions on the health of the labor market very difficult.  March employment just about tripled expectations, in large part from seasonal recoveries and the end of a major strike in healthcare.  Payrolls in February were revised significantly lower (41k to -133k), while January figures were revised significantly higher (34k to 160k).

ISM Manufacturing PMI for increased in March, remaining in expansion territory and well above last year’s contractionary number.

Geopolitics

The 10-day grace period for U.S.- Iran negotiations ends this week, with severe ultimatums issued via social media.  Expect asset price volatility to continue until a ceasefire is reached.  And the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the longer the price impacts will reverberate through supply chains.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

We’ll get some form of macro data every day next week, plus a look at the March FOMC minutes.

  • Monday: ISM Services PMI, 2026 NCAA men’s basketball National Championship Game
  • Tuesday: Durable Goods
  • Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
  • Thursday: February PCE, Final Q4 GDP
  • Friday: March CPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week ( and GO BLUE)!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.
Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Stock Market Outlook – April 05 2026