Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 16th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
All signals in the green to kick off this week. Prices didn’t make much progress after retaking the 50-day moving average, and trading volumes were subdued. The latest geopolitical tensions didn’t help, this time with Iran.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-06-16 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) found support at the 50-day, rather than resistance, but we did pick up some distribution along the way.  The ADX remains bullish and I expect OEW to keep their uptrend call when they post this weeks update.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-06-16 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the weekly view, we see the same trend and price action reflected in the daily view.

My watch list for “growth” stocks looks okay; some new names and some that have held up well over past few weeks.  But my income stocks continue to outperform, which gives me pause about the current state of the market…not to mention gold’s recent rally.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 9th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Two of three signals shifted to uptrends sometime last week, as U.S. stocks rallied despite political and economic uncertainty. The ADX directional indicators flipped late last week, as did OEW. Prices are just below the 50-day moving average, but leading stocks are behaving well.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-06-09 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

In the daily view, S&P 500 prices ($SPX) got within a few points of the 2720 support level before rallying back above the 200 day moving average. And the bearish trendline ended Tuesday. That said, be on the lookout early in the week for some profit taking. Since prices closed at the 50 day, that level could still provide some resistance early in the week.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-06-09 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the weekly view, the trend of higher trading volume in June looks to be repeating.

Unfortunately, stock markets are still driven by the news cycle, so it’s difficult to judge the strength of this latest rally attempt. The May jobs report came in well below estimates; normally a sign that the economy is slowing. Combined with an inverted yield curve, you’d think large investors would be concerned. Instead, hopes are high that the Fed will be more likely to cut interest rates, which in turn is seen as a catalyst for higher stock prices.

The underlying risks and issues that drove prices lower in May are far from solved (e.g. China tariffs, corporate debt levels, etc.), so a little extra caution is warranted. Now is not the time to loosen your stops, use margin, or increase risk limits on your position sizes.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 2nd = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
Sell at the start of May and go away would have been great advice this year. No change in signals; the “downtrend” enters its fourth week.

In the daily view, S&P 500 prices ($SPX) took out another potential support level, closing below the 200-day moving average.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-06-02 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The ADX directional indicators show the bears in control and two more high-volume selling days were added to the count last week. OEW maintains the downtrend as well. 2,720 looks like the next potential support level.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-06-02 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the weekly view, take a look at June trading volumes over the past few years; it looks like we could be in for some high volume trading over the new few weeks. That could be good news if markets find support and start rallying this month.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 26th = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
A holiday shortened week ahead, as U.S. markets closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day.  No change in signals, so the “downtrend” enters its third week.   All the major indexes (S&P, NASDAQ, DJIA, NYSE, R2K) remain below their 50-day moving averages, with the Russell 2000 leading the way down.

In the daily view, S&P 500 prices ($SPX) broke the potential uptrend, but remain above the 2800 level mentioned week.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-05-26 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The ADX directional indicators widened a little bit reflecting the bearish nature of the current market. We added two high-volume selling days last week, and accumulation days were on lower volume. That’s not the greatest price action for a near term bottom. OEW took a break this week; I’m assuming they’d say the current downtrend is extending, but still expect a run at new highs soon.

We’re still looking for a trend in the weekly view.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-05-26 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

Hopefully you rang the register last week and booked some profits from your high performance stocks and/or growth strategies. On the income side, how about those gains by utilities? Not exactly the stuff of new rallies. But all it takes is a tweet, so keep those watch lists updated.

 


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 19th = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
All the major indexes (S&P, NASDAQ, DJIA, NYSE, R2K) recovered some ground last week, but still closed below their 50-day moving averages.  So it’s no surprise that the stock market outlook stays at “downtrend” for a second week.   The ADX remains in bearish territory, as does OEW.  Price & Volume also turned negative last Monday, when prices opened well below the 50-day moving average on trade war fears.

The weekly price chart continues to show a market in search of a trend.   Verses the past two major sell-offs (2018 Q1 and Q4), prices recovered quickly this time around, and trading volumes weren’t nearly as high.  Combined, this info indicates less “acute” selling pressure.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-05-19 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) may have put in a near term bottom, just above 2800, which was a major resistance level in Q4 last year.  I added new trendlines to reflect the current downtrend and the potential uptrend.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-05-19 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The ADX narrowly missed a cross-over, so we’ll have to wait a bit more before that signal turns bullish.   Price & volume needs a follow-through day this week to confirm a new rally…and a close above the 50-day would also be bullish. The distribution day count isn’t low, but could be a lot worse.

OEW maintains the outlook that new highs are just around the corner.  


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 12th = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
The overall signal switched to a downtrend during last week.  The ADX turned negative on Tuesday.  OEW switched the medium-term signal to a downtrend that may have bottomed on Friday. The Price & Volume signal remains in an uptrend; a couple more distributions days, but prices found support at the 50-day moving average.

Technical analysis of weekly S&P 500 prices

2019-05-12 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

The weekly price chart shows a market looking for a trend.  Unlike the last two sell-offs from all time highs, we didn’t see the same spike in trading volume and prices closed off the lows for the week.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-05-12 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) put the price channel we were tracking in its rearview mirror.  But the index looks to have found a solid support level, with prices closing above the 50-day moving average on Thursday and Friday.

I can now say I wasn’t surprised to see market prices encounter a sell off.  Within hours of last week’s post, Trump tweeted on the China trade negations and it was downhill from there.  But lets be honest; from the all time high to Friday’s low is only 4.5% or so…and prices recovered almost half of that before closing for the week.  All in all, I’d say investors took that one rather well.

Now we’ll see how long this weak patch lasts.  At the moment, this still looks and feels like a run of the mill correction.  Price action to close last week was positive, technically speaking, so this downtrend may be over already!  Then again, we’re just a tweet or tariff away from something bigger. As always, let price be your guide.

Monday Morning Update: A shock to almost no one, U.S. President Donald Trump warned China not to retaliate against a hike in tariffs. Then China announced plans to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, in response to the U.S. tariff hike. S&P futures are down ~2% as of 9am.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 5th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
No change in the signals to start the first full week of May.  The ADX still shows a bullish trend in place, although it’s weakened a bit.  The Price & Volume signal looks good; above the 50-day moving average with minimal distribution days.  OEW still shows an uptrend in place as well.

The S&P shows weekly prices start the week near all time highs; just above the last resistance level from 2018 (~2,930).  So we can say the v-shaped recovery is complete!  But that 2019 Q1 trendline looks like it’s done.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-05-05 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) briefly dipped below the uptrend channel.  Since prices immediately recovered, I won’t call it done just yet.  But given the weakening ADX, be on the lookout for signs of selling next week.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-05-05 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

Given the completion of the recovery, and what appears to be some loss of momentum (ADX and trendlines), I wouldn’t be surprised to see market prices encounter a short correction.  Most of the “growth stocks” that I follow are well extended from proper buy points and/or sitting on >20% gains.  And new set-ups aren’t exactly setting the world on fire (e.g. low volume breakouts). “Sell in May and Go Away” really happens…especially if you’re sitting on 20% gains within 4 months!


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
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Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
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