Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 17th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Uptrend signals across the board this week.

In the weekly view, the S&P starts this week right at a key resistance level.  And we have a lower weekly close to use as a reference point for an uptrend.  It’s a steep trendline…you have to wonder how long it can be maintained.

SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-03-17 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly View

Switching to a daily view, the S&P500 ($SPX) recovered from a very brief trip below the 200-day moving average.  Prices start the week just above a resistance trendline going back to Q4 of last year.  The index needs a high-volume gain this week to change the 2810’s from resistance to support.

SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-03-17 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily View

The DI+ / DI- starts the week in bullish territory, having briefly flipped to bearish last week.  Price/volume still signals an uptrend.

The OEW group maintained an uptrend call for this week, through the near-term potential for sideways/corrective price action remains.

2019-03-17 - US Stock Market Averages

2019-03-17 – US Stock Market Averages

The DJIA and Russell 2000 haven’t shown the same strength as the NASDAQ and S&P; this difference is part of the reason OEW touched on the possibility for “weak” price action.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 10th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
An entire week of lower closing prices weakened the signals a bit, but not enough to change the trend at this point.

In the weekly view, the S&P finally encountered a lower weekly close, ending the week just below the 40-week / 200-day moving average.

SPX Trendlines

2019-03-10 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

Switching to a daily view, the S&P500 ($SPX) retreated from the 2,800 resistance level we’ve been tracking, having reached a near-term high of 2817.

SPX Trendlines

2019-03-10 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The DI+ / DI- switched from bullish to bearish as of Thursday’s close.  For the price/volume signal, the S&P remains above 50-day moving average, while distribution days have started to pile up.  Again, not enough to change the signal, but worth watching in the coming weeks.

The OEW group posted a weekly summary Saturday, indicating that markets are still in an uptrend, but there’s an expectation that we confirm a new, short-term downtrend in the coming weeks.

A sell-off is a good thing, especially after the v-shaped recovery we’ve seen.  Some light selling now is much preferred to heavy selling later…unless you’re looking for valuations to come down…then you might prefer the latter scenario!


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 3rd = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Best to your week

COMMENTARY
The uptrend continues; no change in the ADX or price / volume.

In the weekly view, S&P prices closed close to the weekly high point, again, so we’re still searching for a weekly “low” to use for drawing the new uptrend.

SPX Trendlines

2019-03-03 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

Switching to a daily view, the S&P500($SPX) spent most of last week flirting with the 2,800 resistance level.  The chart below reflects an updated the potential uptrend, based on the most recent “low”.  If price are able to climb past their current levels, we could see a run at the all time highs.

SPX Trendlines

2019-03-03 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The DI+ / DI- continues to show a bullish environment.  No change in price/volume, although we did pick up a distribution day last week.

The major stock indexes continue to grind higher, while volatility declines.

2019-03-03 - US Stock Market Averages

2019-03-03 – US Stock Market Averages

Best to your week.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 17th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Best to your week

COMMENTARY
The uptrend rolls on; no change in the technical picture, ADX, or price and volume.

Tony Caldaro, the proprietor of OEW, passed away early last week. He will be missed.  We’ve lost a wealth of objective knowledge and insight, freely shared.  It’s unclear what will happen with the public-facing OEW blog; Tony had many students, so it’s possible that one of them will step up and pastor the flock, so to speak.  For now, we’ll use the sign off from Tony’s public blog posts as the signal and send our prayers to his family.

Weekly SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-02-17 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the weekly view, S&P ($SPX) prices closed at the highs, again, so still no higher “low” to use for drawing the new uptrend.

Daily SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-02-17 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

Switching to a daily view, prices spent most of the week flirting with the 200-day moving average, finally pulling away on above average volume Friday.  I’ve laid in a potential uptrend, based on the most recent “low”.  Next up, the resistance level just above 2,800.

The DI+ / DI- continues to show a bullish environment.  No change in price/volume; the markets are still in rally mode (above the 50 day moving average, limited institutional selling).

2019-02-17 - US Stock Market Averages

2019-02-17 – US Stock Market Averages

An interesting blog post titled, “Putting this Rally Into Historical Context” by Bryce Coward (CFA) at Knowledge Leaders Capital sheds give us some historical context for the current rally (hat tip to Steve Blumenthal over at CMG):

Several weeks ago we did some research to find out what a typical rally looks like after a big waterfall-like decline takes place. The takeaway was that the rallies after those waterfall declines have lasted anywhere from 1 to 74 days and have retraced 20-90+% of the initial decline. That’s quite a wide range in both duration and magnitude of the move, but a universal similarity was that in 19 of 19 post-war instances of a 15% uninterrupted decline (excluding the current one), the stock market ended up testing the waterfall low in some fashion.

Of course, an outlier is possible…there’s a first time for everything and all that.  Near- term, getting back above the 200-day is an important step in the recovery.  But we can’t give the all clear just yet.

Don’t forget to check out the 2018 performance review.

Best to your week.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 10th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators:Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The stock markets took a breather last week.  Earnings season has been a mixed bag.  In some cases, future guidance was more important than beating expectations.

The 2018 performance review posted during the week; you can check it out here. The biggest change, from a weekly post perspective, is the switch from 50-day moving averages to the ADX directional indicator.

In the weekly view, the S&P ($SPX) basically ended where it started after running into resistance at the 200-day / 40-week moving average.  Even though it didn’t close at the highs for the first time in several weeks, there still isn’t a higher “low” to use for drawing the new uptrend.

SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-02-10 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

Switching to a daily view, the bounce lower from the 200-day moving average broke the tentative uptrend I had drawn. Now we wait for signs of support…I’d guess the mid-2600’s…or the 50-day moving average by the time prices get there.

SPX Trendline Analysis

2019-02-10 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The DI+ / DI- continues to show a bullish environment.  In support of the signal adjustments made in the 2018 performance review, the DI cross-overs (uptrend/downtrend signals) are now overlaid on the daily chart.

No change in price/volume; still in rally mode (above the 50 day moving average, limited institutional selling).  OEW also remains in uptrend mode.

2019-02-10 - US Stock Market Averages

2019-02-10 – US Stock Market Averages

The U.S. stock markets have made an impressive bounce off the late December low, so a brief pause / consolidation is a good thing…fingers crossed this uptrend/rally isn’t just a big bull trap!


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

2018 Performance Review – Invest Safely Stock Market Outlook

It’s time! Time for the annual performance review of the Stock Market Outlook.


calculator and personal financial statement

Back in 2014, I began publishing a weekly post detailing the current state for the U.S. stock markets, specifically the S&P500. The outlook is one piece of an investing process; an example for determining whether to put your money to work or take it off the table.

But it’s not enough to just monitor the market. You need to translate that knowledge into action. To that end, I created a simple trading system using rules and criteria for entering and exiting trades based on the weekly market outlook signals (e.g. the “execute” step in the safe investing process). Example trades come with example profits and losses, so I can use those rules to estimate performance…another critical piece of the “monitor” step in your investing process.

At the start of 2016, I posted the first annual review, examining the outlook, the opportunities and challenges that come with translating signals into trades, as well as refinements that can improve performance.

So without further ado, let’s get started.

Click here to continue reading the 2018 Performance Review

Posted in Historical Data, Investing, Market Trends | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 3rd = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Positive action last week keeps the outlook in an uptrend as we start the month of February.  Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow, so we don’t’ get 6 more weeks of a bear market…that’s how it works, right?

In the weekly view, we see another close at the highs…that’s 5 straight weeks.  Three of them on higher than average trading volume.  The 2018 Q4 downtrend we’ve been following is finished and prices ended the week above the 40-week moving average.  We still don’t have a “low” to use for the new uptrend.  But we can say that when we do see that low, it represents a good buying opportunity in the near future, rather than a continuation of the downtrend.

SPX Trendlines

2019-02-03 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

Switching to a daily view, the S&P ($SPX) found support at the 50-day moving average, broke the 2018 Q4 downtrend, and closed above the 200-day moving average (with volume).  Mirroring the weekly view, the SPX still needs to put in a higher “low” price of some kind.  For now, we’ll use what we have to estimate the trendline.

SPX Daily Trendlines

2019-02-03 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The DI+ / DI- continues to show a bullish environment.  Price and volume was bullish last week, courtesy of high volume accumulation days.  The latest OEW analysis also puts us back in an uptrend, with the probability of a new bull market 80%.

2019-02-03 - US Stock Market Averages

2019-02-03 – US Stock Market Averages

More broadly speaking, all the indexes start the week above their 50 day moving averages.  The VIX is back around 16…is that an indication we’ll see a spike in volatility? Asking for a friend…

So what investing “lessons learned” can we take away from January?  Don’t fight the Fed.  It’s amazing what a few dovish speeches will do in today’s trading environment, considering nothing has changed in the past few weeks (underlying fundamentals, etc.).


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment