Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 4th = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
As expected, US stocks ran into resistance last week. The S&P 500 fell 1%, the Nasdaq lost 2.7%, the NYSE fell 0.1%, and the Russell 2000 lost 2.4%.  The Dow managed to squeeze out a gain of 0.1%.

Except for the Nasdaq, all the major indexes remain above their respective 20/50/200 day moving averages.

2016-12-04 - US Stock Market Averages

2016-12-04 – US Stock Market Averages

The Nasdaq closed below its 20 and 50 day average.  The reason for this weakness, relative to the other indexes?  Technology stocks fell out of favor during the Trump rally, as institutional investors rotated their holdings into steel, oil drillers, construction and bank stocks.

We also witnessed a lot of stalling action during last week’s pullback, in the form of high price spreads intraday with a closing price near the low.  All the averages ran into this phenomenon at least one day last week.  The Nasdaq hauled in a whopping 4 days!

A few more distribution days were added to the count last week, but the totals aren’t elevated yet (Nasdaq = 5, NYSE = 1, S&P500 = 3, and the Dow = 3).

OEW, which was also expecting a pullback, looks for the selling to end shortly and a resumed uptrend.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 27th = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
US stocks winning ways continued last week, in spite of a holiday shortened week.  I’m still expecting a pullback at some point, but that should represent a good opportunity to add shares.

All the major indexes remain above their respective 20/50/200 day moving averages.

2016-11-27 - US Stock Market Averages

2016-11-27 – US Stock Market Averages

As previously discussed, several distributions days fell off the count as they are no longer in the 20-day window. The count now stands at 1, 2, 4, and 5 for the NYSE, S&P500, Dow Jones Industrials, and Nasdaq, respectively.

OEW’s medium term uptrend is expected to remain in place until January.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 20th = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
US stocks continued to rally last week, although not as strongly as the election week.

The Nasdaq joined the other major indexes above their respective 20/50/200 day moving averages.  Given how quickly market prices rose over the past two weeks, some sideways action (consolidation) is likely in the short term.

2016-11-20 - US Stock Market Averages

2016-11-20 – US Stock Market Averages

The number of distribution days remains elevated, but the situation is improving.  Over the next week, 3 distribution days will fall off the count for the Nasdaq, NYSE, and S&P500.  The Dow did show stalling action on Friday, with small price movement on high volume, a larger than average spread between the day’s high and low, and a closing price towards the low.

OEW’s medium term uptrend is expected to remain in place until January.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 13th = Uptrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
What a week!    Even though most of the price change occurred after-hours in the futures markets, individual investors still saw the impact on their portfolios (or at least I did!).  A good reminder that we can’t predict what the stock market will do, we can only be prepared to profit from it.

US stocks rallied Monday on news that the FBI cleared Hillary Clinton in the latest round of email discovery.  On Tuesday, stocks tumbled after hours as the US election appeared to close to call.  As the night wore on, stocks reversed course and swung to the upside as a Trump victory became more certain.  The remainder of the week saw massive price moves (both to the upside and downside) as large investors reallocated their holdings to companies likely to benefit from Trump’s policies.

Performance to the moving averages exploded higher.  All the indexes are back above their 200 day moving averages.  Only the Nasdaq remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.

2016-11-13 - US Stock Market Averages

2016-11-13 – US Stock Market Averages

The Nasdaq picked up another distribution day on Thursday as money rotated out of technology.

OEW’s medium term outlook shifted back to an uptrend, but cautioned that there may be some short-term selling this week before additional moves higher.

As mentioned last week, check your holdings.  For stocks out of favor, your stops were probably triggered.  And for those in favor, you’re probably sitting on some nice gains!  When the markets find support, you can evaluate new positions.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 6th = Downtrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Mixed 
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
Another down week for the US stock markets.

Performance to the moving averages continued weakening.  All the indexes remain below their 20 and 50 day moving averages.  The SP500 closed just 2 points above its 200 day moving average, and the NYSE fell below that level.

Even more heavy volume selling last week, so we’re still waiting for signs relief.

OEW’s medium term outlook remains a downtrend.

As mentioned last week, check your holdings, tighten your stop orders to recent support levels, and take some profits if you’ve hit your targets.  When the markets find support, you can evaluate new positions.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 30th = Downtrend 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Mixed 
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
Prices didn’t find the support needed to turn things around.  In fact, market action went the opposite way, and the strong selling was enough to change the market outlook to a downtrend.

Performance to the moving averages weakened, with all the indexes ending the week  below their 20 and 50 day moving averages.  All the averages still remain above their 200 day moving averages, but the Russell 2000, Dow Jones Industrial, and NYSE are within striking distance.

2016-10-30 - US Stock Market Averages

2016-10-30 – US Stock Market Averages

A lot of heavy volume selling last week (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday) highlights the mood of institutional investors.  All the averages picked up at least 2 distribution days, if not 3.  1 distribution day dropped off the count, improving the picture ever so slightly, but not enough to avoid a change in market outlook (S&P, NYSE, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial counts are 8,8,7,8 respectively).

OEW switched the medium term outlook to a downtrend due to last weeks weakness, and still expects choppy trading action.

If you haven’t already, check your holdings, tightening your stop orders to recent support levels, and take some profits if you’ve hit your targets.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 23rd = Mixed 

  • 20/50/200 Day Moving Averages: Mixed 
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
No change in the market outlook.  Prices did find support last week, so a strong showing this week could be enough to turn things around before the end of the month.

Performance to moving averages strengthened last week, although only the Nasdaq was able to end the week above a key level (50 day moving average).  All the other indexes closed below their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

2016-10-23 - US Stock Market Averages

2016-10-23 – US Stock Market Averages

No change based on last week’s price and volume performance; uptrend remains in place but institutional selling remains on the high side.  All the averages picked up another distribution day last week (S&P, NYSE, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial counts are 6,6,5,8 respectively).

OEW continues to favor an uptrend, but is waiting for all the averages to set a confirmation signal; expect choppy trading action over the new few weeks.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

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