Stock Market Outlook: May 3rd = Uptrend

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to start the first full week of May.

Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Value outperformed; Gold, Industrials, and Defensives underperformed.  Mag 7 earnings came through for the market again, and investors now turn their attention to this week’s employment data.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9% last week, thanks to a strong move higher on Thursday.  The index is now:

• ~6% above the 50-day moving average
• ~8% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
  • No change
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • Another distribution days added to the count
  • Trading volume remains subdued
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-03

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) led asset prices higher for a second consecutive week.  Gold ( $GLD ) lagged…again.  Emerging Market Bonds ( $PCY ) eased back to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-03

S&P500 Sectors

Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed last week, ending Technology’s bid for 4 consecutive weeks leading to the upside.  Industrials ( $XLI ) underperformed. Communications ( $XLC ) climbed back bullish bias.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-03

S&P500 Investing Styles

In a bit of a surprise, Large Cap Value ( $IWX ) was the leading sector style.  Defensives ( $POWA ) underperformed.  There were no bias changes.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-03

COMMENTARY

Markets

From a market standpoint, Magnificent 7 earnings didn’t disappoint, again, pushing equities higher midweek. That said, investors didn’t reward every report.  Alphabet’s revenue beat and increased capital expenditure guidance sent shares soaring; Amazon and Apple carried their weight as well. Microsoft’s strong results didn’t provide the same boost in share price. Meta had the worst luck, with investors sending shares lower due to increased capex figures.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

The FOMC held rates steady, in what was likely Chairman Powell’s last press conference.

The first estimate of Q1 GDP came in at +2%, which was slightly below estimates but still a welcome increase year over year.  March PCE, which reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States, came in at +3.5% year over year; Core was +3.2%.  Combined, these datapoints show an inflationary environment in place for much of the first quarter.

ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady in April, continuing the expansion in place since January.

Geopolitics

A quiet week on the geopolitical front, relatively speaking, with the U.S./Iran cease-fire holding and potential deals being discussed through back channels.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

The first full week of May is all about employment data: March Job Openings ( JOLTS ), April employment change ( ADP ), and April Non-farm Payrolls ( NFP ).

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: ISM Services, JOLTS
• Wednesday: ADP Job Openings
• Thursday: —
• Friday: NFP, Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: April 26th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend with equities consolidating near all time highs.

Oil, Technology, and Momentum outperformed; Gold, Healthcare, High Dividend, and Defensives underperformed.  Earnings reports have exceeded expectations so far, and this week’s line-up could have an outsized impact.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.5% last week, consolidating slightly after the historic run-up.  The index is now:

• ~6% above the 50-day moving average
• ~7% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
  • No change.
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • Two distributions days were added to the new count
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-26

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) continues to bounce around, leading asset prices higher last week.  Gold ( $GLD ) was the worst performer. Developed Market Bonds ( $BNDX ) eased back to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-26

S&P500 Sectors

Technology ( $XLK ) led sectors to the upside for the 3rd straight week.  Communications and Healthcare ( $XLC, $XLV ) underperformed. Energy ( $XLE ) rallied back to bullish bias, while Communications ( $XLC ) eased back the neutral.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-26

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum ( $MTUM ) outperformed last week, followed closely by High Beta ( $SPHB ). High Dividend and Defensives ( $SPHD, $POWA ) were the worst performers.  Low Beta dropped to bearish bias ( $SPLV ).

Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-26

COMMENTARY

Markets

The equity market is back to risk-on, and one place that’s readily apparent is semiconductor stocks.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor index rallied almost 10% last week, on the back Intel’s blow-out earnings.

Speaking of earnings, a majority of the companies reporting have exceeded revenue and profit expectations.  Add in the extended cease-fire, and the S&P500 passed 7,000 for the first time last week.

This week has a lot of potential earnings-related volatility, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple reporting.  5 of the Mag 7 represent a lot of market cap in today’s indexes.  All eyes will be on their AI-related spending, especially CAPEX projections.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Retail sales increased in March, thanks in large part of higher gas prices. Flash PMIs were also higher.  Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh didn’t make many waves during his Congressional testimony, sticking to well-worn talking points.  He did mention assessing better models for inflation and the labor market.

Geopolitics

The off again, on again nature of West Asia peace talks kept most people guessing last week, with the only concrete steps being the extension of ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon.  It’s unclear if a weekend assassination attempt on the U.S. President will have any impact on futures markets when they open Sunday evening.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

This week marks Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve Chairman, with markets expecting the committee to keep interest rates steady.  We’ll also get the latest PCE inflation data and our first look at Q1 GDP.

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: —
• Wednesday: FOMC
• Thursday: PCE, Q1 GDP
• Friday: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: April 19th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook returned to an uptrend on Monday, while in the process of a historic move to new all time highs.

Bitcoin, Emerging Markets, Technology and High Beta names led assets higher, while Oil, Energy, and Low Beta underperformed.  CTAs reversed their recent short positioning, pushing equity prices higher as West Asia headlines took down oil and energy.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 4.8% last week, rallying further from September lows and reclaiming widely followed moving averages.  The index is now:

• ~5% above the 50-day moving average
• ~7% above the 200-day moving average

We received confirmation of the new uptrend, via the second signal, in short order last week, with the ADX moving to bullish on Monday.  And the OBV crossover joined the other indicators in the green later in the week.

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
  • Directional indicators crossed on Monday .
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • No change; trading volume remains subdued
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • Back above the long-term average

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-19

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) led assets higher again last week, but Emerging Market Equities were a close second ( $EEM ).  Oil ( $USO ) fell on West Asia headlines ( more commentary in the Geopolitics section ), but is still up more than 50% since moving to bullish bias.  Bitcoin, Developed Market and Emerging Market Bonds ( $IBIT, $BNDX, $PCY ) regained bullish bias.  

Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-19

S&P500 Sectors

Same situation as the last review:  Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed and Energy ( $XLE ) sold off.  Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials ( $XLC, $XLY, $XLF) reclaimed bullish bias, and Energy ( $XLE ) dropped to bearish.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-19

S&P500 Investing Styles

All sector styles were higher last week. High Beta ( $SPHB ) led to the upside, while Low Beta ( $SPLV ) brought up the rear. High Dividend ( $SPHD ) was the worst performer and came in flat.  Small Cap and Large Cap growth, along with Quality, got back to bullish bias ( $IWO, $IWF, $QUAL ).

Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-19

COMMENTARY

Markets

We’ve all just experienced a historic run in U.S. equities.  The SPX rallied almost 11% in over 11 trading sessions, reversing the correction and moving back to all-time highs.  The index has never moved from correction territory to new all time highs that quickly.  Not to mention the Nasdaq’s 13 session win streak, which is the longest since 2009.

Per Goldman Sachs:

The last five sessions have garnered one of “the largest in history” trading demand from CTAs ( Commodity Trading Advisors ), or hedge ⁠funds that ride market trends. – Reported by Reuters

CTA’s were net short U.S. equities as crease-fire and Hormuz rumors began to circulate.  So they were offside of any relief rally and needed to reverse course ( probably long oil too, but that’s just me making an educated guess ).

During rallies, buyers are typically price insensitive; they buy because they want to get in, regardless of price.  During sell-offs, sellers are insensitive; they sell because they want to get out, regardless of price.

The theory is that the CTAs got squeezed, with market participants only willing to sell at higher prices ( i.e. where we are now ) due to expectations an end to hostilities in West Asia.  You might think that all that buying would manifest as higher trading volume for the index, but that didn’t happen.  Despite the large level of CTA buying, other participants were less enthusiastic.

Earnings season kicked off with good showings from major banks, thanks largely to higher interest rates and fees.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Inflation remains an issue.  March Producer Price index came in at +4.0% y/y, 80 basis points higher than this time last year.  Core PPI came in at +3.8% y/y, which is flat versus 2025.

Geopolitics

Despite its uncertain nature, the West Asia ceasefire narrative continues to move global asset prices.  High-level peace talks in Islamabad ended without a long-term agreement on April 13th, but equities and commodities responded to Hormuz-related headlines: closures, blockades, re-openings and everything in between. As of this post, the strait is closed again, and there are rumors of a seized Iranian ship.
i

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Earnings reports pick up steam this week.  The income Chairman of the Federal Reserve testifies before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Tuesday, giving observers a taste of his upcoming tenure.

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: Retail Sales, Fed Chair-Designate Warsh Testifies
• Wednesday: —
• Thursday: Flash PMIs
• Friday: Revised Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: April 12th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook continues with a downtrend until a second indicator confirms the new rally.

Bitcoin, Technology and Momentum plays led assets higher, while Oil, Energy, and High Dividends underperformed.  Markets welcomed cease-fire headlines and volatility retreated across the board, while investors await the start of earnings season this week.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 3.6% last week, rallying further from September lows and reclaiming widely followed moving averages.  The index is now:

• ~1% above the 50-day moving average
• ~2% above the 200-day moving average

Institutional activity shows firms buying the dip last week from deeply oversold levels.  Now we’re waiting on another indicator to confirm the bullish move.

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
  • Trend strength has leveled off, and the directional indicators are nearing a cross-over.
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • Follow-through on Day 6 (Wednesday) confirmed a new rally; trading volume was just okay though.
  • Price also reclaimed the 50-day moving average
• On-Balance Volume: Bearish
  • Rebounding to the long-term average

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-12

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) led assets higher last week, reflecting a risk-on mood after the cease-fire announcement.  No surprise that Oil ( $USO ) lagged.  All equities ( $SPY, $VEA, $EEM ) regained bullish bias, along with U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ).   EM bonds and the dollar flipped to neutral.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-12

S&P500 Sectors

Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed and Energy ( $XLE ) gave back more of its recent gains.  Industrials, Materials, Real Estate, and Technology ( $XLI, $XLB, $XLRE, $XLK ) reclaimed bullish bias.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-12

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum ( $MTUM ) more than doubled its gain from last week to lead styles higher. High Dividend ( $SPHD ) was the worst performer and came in flat.  Several styles ( $SPHB, $IJH, $OEF, $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX, $MTUM ) improved to bullish. Small Cap Growth and came up to neutral ( $IWO, $QUAL ).

Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-12

COMMENTARY

Markets

Now that volatility retreated a bit and price reclaimed key levels, it’s a good time to assess the wreckage.  For example, sectors that held up well during the recent correction ( e.g. Utilities ) are places to investigate further, while those that didn’t see any inflows ( e.g. Healthcare ) are lower probability.

The areas that performed well last week ( i.e. bounced off the lows ) are also overbought, so best to wait for the first retrace/retest of key levels before deploying more capital.  A pause will sort out which moves were just short-covering, and which are actual accumulation.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Durable goods declined 1.4% month over month, and February data was revised lower as well. It was the third straight decline.

The final Q4 GDP figure came in at +0.5%, down from +0.7% in the second estimate, and well below the initial +1.4% level.  So the economy slowed in the 4th quarter, from a rate of change perspective ( i.e. year over year ).

February PCE showed relatively tame inflation, with “Headline” data flat at +2.8% y/y, and “Core” data easing to +3% y/y. On the other hand, March CPI showed “Headline” inflation increasing to +3.3% y/y, and “Core” trending higher to +2.6% y/y.

The FOMC meeting minutes revealed officials still expect to cut interest rates this year, but are open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated.  They also raised their yearly inflation forecast to +2.7%.

April’s preliminary University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to record low. Surveys cited consumer concerns relating to higher prices, higher inflation expectations, and economic fallout from global conflict.

Geopolitics

The U.S. and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire last week, which was the catalyst for equities to rally.  Although drone and missile strikes continued throughout the region, both sides claimed “victory” while using back-channels to set-up negotiations.  As of this post, it appears the weekend negotiations didn’t result in any further progress.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Not a lot of macro data catalysts on the schedule, but that shouldn’t be a problem. Earnings season kicks off next week with bog banks, and there’s sure to be daily geopolitical developments.

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: March PPI
• Wednesday: —
• Thursday: —
• Friday: —

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: April 5th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook continues in a downtrend, but the bulls did pick themselves up a bit last week.

Oil, Industrials, Communications, and Momentum led assets higher, while Energy and Bitcoin underperformed.  Volatility crept into employment data, as we wait for the next round of inflation data and geopolitical headlines to hit the wires.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.7% last week, finding some footing at the September lows.  The index is now:

• ~3% below the 50-day moving average
• ~1% below the 200-day moving average

Technical indicators showed some signs of bullishness last week:

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
  • Trend strength has stopped increasing
• Institutional Activity: Neutral
  • Look for a follow-through day to confirm the new rally
  • A follow-through is a significantly higher close than the prior day, on higher greater volume, and usually occur on Day 4 – 11 of the rally attempt
• On-Balance Volume: Bearish
  • Inflected higher, but remains below the long-term average

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-05

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Another week, another win for Oil ( $USO ).  Bitcoin was the lone asset class in the loss column.  U.S. bonds ( $IEF ) rose to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-05

S&P500 Sectors

Industrials and Communications ( XLI & XLC ) outperformed; Energy ( $XLE ) gave back  some of the recent gains.  Industrials ( $XLI ) also reclaimed neutral bias.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-05

S&P500 Investing Styles

All the investing styles scored a win last week: Momentum ( $MTUM ) secured the top spot with a gain of more than 3% and Defensives ( $POWA ) came in last place with 0.6%.  Low Beta and Small Cap Value moved to neutral bias.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-05

COMMENTARY

Markets

Volatility retreated last week, for both equities and interest rates, thanks to oversold bounces across various asset classes.  A step in the right direction.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Employment data showed higher than expected gains, but came with an asterisk.  Job openings (JOLTS) were steady, and ADP private payrolls beat expectations, so no issues there.  Non-farm payrolls (NFP) was the problem: high volatility makes drawing conclusions on the health of the labor market very difficult.  March employment just about tripled expectations, in large part from seasonal recoveries and the end of a major strike in healthcare.  Payrolls in February were revised significantly lower (41k to -133k), while January figures were revised significantly higher (34k to 160k).

ISM Manufacturing PMI for increased in March, remaining in expansion territory and well above last year’s contractionary number.

Geopolitics

The 10-day grace period for U.S.- Iran negotiations ends this week, with severe ultimatums issued via social media.  Expect asset price volatility to continue until a ceasefire is reached.  And the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the longer the price impacts will reverberate through supply chains.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

We’ll get some form of macro data every day next week, plus a look at the March FOMC minutes.

• Monday: ISM Services PMI, 2026 NCAA men’s basketball National Championship Game
• Tuesday: Durable Goods
• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
• Thursday: February PCE, Final Q4 GDP
• Friday: March CPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week ( and GO BLUE)!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: March 29th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook continues in a downtrend, though there are pockets of oversold conditions despite the elevated volatility.

Oil and Energy continue to outperform, and were joined by small cap value this week.  Bitcoin, Communications, and Large Cap Growth underperformed.  Mixed survey data and a downbeat consumer didn’t do anything to combat uncertainty caused by the conflict in West Asia.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) dropped 2.1% last week, falling further below key moving averages.  Th index is now:

• ~7% below the 50-day moving average
• ~4% below the 200-day moving average

All 3 technical indicators remain bearish and have shown no signs of changing sides yet:

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
  • A strong bearish trend is underway
• Institutional Activity: Bearish
  • Price continues to drop below key moving averages on elevated volume
• On-Balance Volume: Bearish
  • Remains below the long-term average

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-03-29

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) continued its recent win streak in weekly performance, while Bitcoin lost the most ground.  Only Oil and the U.S. dollar are bullish.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-03-29

S&P500 Sectors

Thanks to the strength in Oil, Energy ( $XLE ) continues to resist the selloff, gaining over 5% last week despite the general market dropped more than 2%.  Communications was the worst sector ( $XLC ), thanks in large part to declines by Alphabet and Meta ( $GOOGL & $META ).  Utilities ( $XLU ) managed to regain bullish bias.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-03-29

S&P500 Investing Styles

Small Cap and Mid Cap Value overperformed and Large Cap Growth underperformed.  All sector styles are bearish.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-03-29

COMMENTARY

Markets

The Volatility Index ( $VIX ) is back on the rise and looks destined to close above 30.  Bond volatility ( $MOVE ), remains above 110.  Both continue to signal markets under stress. While many areas in the equities and bonds are oversold verses most traditional technical indicators, markets also tend to crash from oversold levels when volatility is elevated like it is right now.

No need to try and pick a bottom.  Adding to positions when they’re below the 200 day moving average is usually a good bet for long-term investors, but the inflationary shock from oil prices has yet to be absorbed.  Wait for prices to re-establish themselves in bullish bias, or at least get back above key moving averages.  The focus on sectors, styles, and industry groups that are showing the most strength.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in March 2026, up substantially from last year.  Other the flip side, Services PMI fell to 51.1, down significantly from last year.  Since services has become a larger percentage of the overall economy, this divergence does not bode well for economic growth.

Consumer Sentiment fell year over year, for all age groups and political affiliations. Households with middle and higher incomes, as well as those with significant investments, experienced the steepest drops in confidence.

Geopolitics

Shipping disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, which directly impacts the price of oil and indirectly impacts the price of almost everything else, from diesel fuel and shipping costs, to synthetic fibers for clothing, to detergents and fertilizers…let along plastic.

President Trump postponed further U.S. attacks on Iranian energy grids to provide a window for “negotiations”, but its not clear who is negotiating with whom at this point.  In the meantime, strikes and counterstrikes continue across the region.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Next week the markets are closed for Good Friday, though NFP data will still be released.  We’ll get several updates on employment, as well we a speech from Fed Chair Powell and the latest ISM Manufacturing survey data.

• Monday: Powell Speech
• Tuesday: JOLTS
• Wednesday: ADP non-farm payrolls, Retail Sales, ISM Manufacturing
• Thursday: —
• Friday: Markets Closed, Non-Farm Payrolls

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: March 22nd = Downtrend

The stock market outlook continues in a downtrend and price fell below long-term technical indicators.

Oil and Energy outperformed again, while Gold, Utilities, and Low Volatility underperformed.  The FOMC held rates steady, while investors were busy repricing risk across asset classes.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) dropped 1.9% last week, slicing through the 200-day moving average.  Price is now:

• ~5% below the 50-day moving average
• ~2% below the 200-day moving average

All 3 technical indicators remain bearish and have shown no signs of changing sides yet:

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
  • A strong bearish trend is underway
• Institutional Activity: Bearish
  • Price fell below the 200-day moving average on elevated volume
• On-Balance Volume: Bearish
  • Remains below the long-term average

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-03-22

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) was the only asset to register a gain, while Gold ( $GLD ) led to the downside again after dropping 10%!  Gold, along with U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ), dropped to Bearish bias as well.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-03-22

S&P500 Sectors

Energy ( $XLE ) continues to resist the selloff, and Financials managed to finish in the green.  Utilities ( $XLU ) bore the brunt of the selling last week, though Industrials ( $XLI ) and Staples weren’t far behind.  Consumer Staples and Real Estate ( $XLP, $XLRE ) dropped to bearish bias; Utilities fell to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-03-22

S&P500 Investing Styles

In a strange twist, High Beta ( $SPHB ) outperformed and Low Beta ( $SPLV ) underperformed during last weeks selling!  Low Beta also dropped to bearish bias, putting the entire style space into risk-off.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-03-22

COMMENTARY

Markets

Oil and the US dollar are the only assets in bullish trends.  Equities remain risk off, despite being deeply oversold per most technical analysis techniques.  Even traditional safety plays, like Low Volatility and Utilities, have led to the downside during the past two weeks.  The sectors to watch from last week, Consumer Staples and Real Estate ( $XLP, $XLRE ), did indeed test their bias turning points.  Both failed. Just another reminder that when an asset class sells off, there are few, if any, places to hide.

The Volatility Index ( $VIX ) was flat on the weekly basis, but it’s uptrend remains intact.  Bond volatility ( $MOVE ), or more accurately Treasury Yield Volatility, was and is the real story, as it continues the recent breakout.  The index jumped 28% on Friday to a reading of 108, in response to large moves in Treasury yields.

Why is the change in Treasury yields the real story? Because fixed income is the second largest market in the world behind currencies, and U.S. treasuries drive that market.  Sudden changes in treasury yields cause nearly every financial asset to be repriced, force portfolio managers to rebalance risk, and ultimately shift capital flows.

Case in point: Gold.  The ultimate safe haven asset dropped 10% last week and is now bearish bias, which seems counterintuitive.  Why?  When financial markets start to go sideways, traders sell what they can to cover what they must.  Gold had been winning bigly, especially if you were using leverage as many institutions do.  With the U.S. Dollar and Treasury’s sharply higher, investors are forced to sell winning positions offset losing positions in other areas in order to rebalance, de-risk, or meet margin calls.  To a lesser extent, this behavior also explains some of the move in recent winning sectors like Materials and Industrials,

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Headline PPI was flat year over year year at +3.4%.  Core PPI rose 20 bps +3.9% y/y.  Combined with CPI and PCE, the FOMC chose to leave rates unchanged.  And it’s no longer clear when we’ll see the next rate cut.  The spike in treasury yields actually caused probability markets to start pricing in rate hikes!

Geopolitics

Even for the best traders and investors are having a tough time in today’s headline/event market. Financial markets hate uncertainty, and uncertainty is the only thing that certain at the moment. Our collective struggle is one of the side-effects from a “flood the zone” communication strategy:

“Flood the zone” is a political / media strategy designed to overwhelm, disorient, and distract by releasing large volume and/or rapid succession of news, accusations, or information.

When the strategy is applied to military actions involving a linchpin of the global energy market ( Oil and the Strait of Hormuz ), an element of uncertainty is injected into every supply chain on the planet.  Rising uncertainty equals rising risk, which you’re seeing reflected in prices and interest rates real-time.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

The good news is that on the other side of the current turmoil are new opportunities.  The time will come to redeploy capital into assets, sectors, and styles with new bullish trends.

Next week is a lighter data release schedule, with data from two surveys incoming: Flash PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.  Flash PMI compiles responses from purchasing managers on business conditions like employment, production, orders, pricing, deliveries, inventories, etc.

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: Flash PMI
• Wednesday: —
• Thursday: —
• Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week!

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Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

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