Stock Market Outlook: June 14th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, as U.S. markets enter a shortened trading week.

Bitcoin, Materials, Momentum outperformed; Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Growth underperformed.  Turnaround Tuesday was in full effect, as markets reacted to de-escalating tensions in West Asia.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.6% last week.  The index is:

• ~3% above the 50-day moving average
• ~8% above the 200-day moving average

Some added selling pressure last week as stocks moved lower, but the index remains above key levels and hasn’t given us a signal change yet.

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
  • No change
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
  • The total number of distribution days (6) is elevated, with 3 in the last 8 sessions
  • Price remains above the 50-day, so the signal is mixed at the moment
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-06-14

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Bitcoin had a bit of an oversold bounce last week, good enough to lead assets on the upside.  Oil ( $USO ) lagged other assets classes.  With last weeks loss, Oil dropped to bearish bias, after months in bullish territory and gains of more than 80%. U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ) moved up to neutral.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-06-14

S&P500 Sectors

Materials ( $XLB ) outperformed, while Energy ( $XLE ) was the only sector in the red.  eading to the downside for a change.  Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Industrials ( $XLY, $XLP, $XLI ) continued their recent improvement and are now bullish bias.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-06-14

S&P500 Investing Styles

Momentum ( $MTUM ) showed out last week, while Large Cap Growth underperformed.  Low Beta and Defensives ( $SPLV, $POWA ) returned to bullish bias.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-06-14

COMMENTARY

Markets

SpaceX ( $SPCX ) Day came and went, with the company’s historic, $75 billion IPO on Friday.  Even though the rest of the “space trade” didn’t fair so well, equity indexes absorbed the event rather well.

Despite higher than expected inflation readings ( see the next section ), traditional hedges ( Gold/Bonds ), and risk assets like Bitcoin, appeared trade on de-escalation in West Asia.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

Headline CPI for May was 4.2% year-over-year, up from 3.8% in April and almost doubling last May’s 2.4% reading.  It was the highest annual inflation rate in three years, thanks in part to an increase in energy prices of ~24%.  Core CPI hit 2.9% year-over-year, up slightly from April and last May.

Producer prices experienced renewed inflation, similar to CPI, with May Headline PPI hitting +6.5% year-over-year, up from 5.7% in April and near 2.5x higher than last year.  Core PPI was +4.9% year-over-year, which was inline with April and up from +3.2% last May.

The European Central Bank decided to increase interest rates by 0.25%. This highlighted a stark macroeconomic and monetary policy divergence between resilient U.S. corporate markets and European equities, which continue to struggle from a structural reliance on imported energy.

There was some good news:  The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded from May’s all time low and exceeded market expectations.

Geopolitics

Peace efforts in West Asia remain “challenging” at best.  Markets reacted positively to headlines that military strikes were canceled, and the prevailing narrative heading into the weekend was that an agreement was close at hand.

As of this post (Sunday evening), the US and Iran say they have reached an agreement that will take effect next Friday, after a signing ceremony in Switzerland. The memorandum of understanding is expected to kick-off 60 days of negotiation on ending the war. President Donald Trump said the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen once the framework is signed. The full text of the agreement has not yet been released.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

We’ve got a packed week ahead in financial markets, with equity trading closed on Friday for Juneteenth.  The most anticipated event has to be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday; the first with Kevin Warsh as Chairman.

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: Housing Starts
• Wednesday: Retail Sales, FOMC Rate Decision
• Thursday: Quadruple Witching Day
• Friday: U.S. Markets Closed

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: June 7th = Uptrend

Despite Friday’s sell-off, the stock market outlook remains in an uptrend.

Oil, Energy, and Low Beta outperformed; Bitcoin, Technology, and High Beta underperformed.  Capital flowed out of the AI-trade on Friday, but employment, inflation and earnings growth continue to support asset prices.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 2.6% last week.  The index is:

• ~3% above the 50-day moving average
• ~8% above the 200-day moving average

Friday’s sell-off put a dent in the technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish:

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
  • Friday’s sell-off created a cross-over
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • The total number of distribution days sits at 5, which is elevated
    • The arrows for two May distribution days were missing (5/4 and 5/19) and have been re-added.
    • Two distribution days were added to the count, along with a stalling day on 5/29 when the indexes rebalanced.
  • Selling is not concentrated, and the May 4 distribution day drops out tomorrow, so the signal remains bullish for now
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-06-07

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) ended the with the only gain.  Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) was absolutely crushed.  Not surprisingly, the cryptocurrency also fell to bearish trend, along with US bonds ( $IEF ).  Emerging Market Bonds ( $PCY ) weakened to neutral and the U.S. Dollar reclaimed bullish bias.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-06-07

S&P500 Sectors

Energy and Healthcare ( $XLE, $XLV ) led sectors higher, and it was Technology ( $XLK ) leading to the downside for a change.  Communications did an about face and dropped to bearish bias.  Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Industrials all met in neutral territory.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-06-07

S&P500 Investing Styles

No surprise in style performance:  Low Beta ( $SPLV ) was the best, High Beta the worst ( $SPHB ).  High Dividend ( $SPHD ) moved back to bullish bias.  Low Beta and Defensives ( $SPLV, $POWA ) returned to neutral.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-06-07

COMMENTARY

Markets

Oof.  The tech sector took it on the chin last week, as capital flows rotated out of AI-related companies.  It wasn’t ALL bad though:  the tables above show several sectors doing fairly well despite Friday’s drop.  In fact, FactSet compiled statistics from the latest earnings cycle that supports this move, showing non-tech, cyclical sectors like industrials, financials, and materials exceeding 20% earnings growth.  Even with Friday’s sell-off, U.S. equities have been largely immune to the macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds…so far at least.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

ISM Manufacturing PMI increased slightly in May, though the level did indicate the strongest expansion in 4 years.  ISM Services PMI also increased in May.

Job openings (JOLTS) increased in April, reaching the highest level since November 2024.  ADP data showed private businesses added jobs in May 2026, which aligned with the blowout NFP data released Friday.  The US economy added 172K jobs in May, more than double the forecasts, and April was revised higher by more than 50%.  The strong employment data, along with higher inflation, has many dropping expectations for rate cuts this year.

Geopolitics

Peace efforts in West Asia stalled out again, with the U.S. and Iran renewing military strikes.  Israel launched ground operations and airstrikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, drawing the ire of Iran.

The Trump administration discussed plans for new import tariffs (~10%) on major trading partners, using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to make the measures legally resilient.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Inflation datasets (Consumer and Producer Price index) drop later this week.

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: Existing Home Sales
• Wednesday: CPI
• Thursday: PPI
• Friday: UofM Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: May 31st = Uptrend

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place, with stocks at all time highs to close out the month of May.

Emerging Market Equities, Technology, and High Beta outperformed; Oil, Energy, and Low Beta underperformed.  Social media diplomacy continues to wag the markets, but tech earnings and new IPO rules are giving the market something else to discuss.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.4% last week.  The index is:

• ~7% above the 50-day moving average
• ~11% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish:

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
  • No change
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • No change
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-31

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Emerging Market Equities ( $EEM ) led assets higher last week; Oil led to the downside ( $USO ).  Bitcoin eased back to neutral bias ( $IBIT), while Developed and Emerging Market Bonds ( $BNDX, $PCY ) rallied back to bullish.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-31

S&P500 Sectors

Technology ( $XLK ) led the sectors higher, gaining 7% and now up over 20% in the past 4 weeks! Energy ( $XLE ) led lower, taking a hit from oil prices.  Communications and Industrials regained bullish bias, while Consumer Staples and Energy ( $XLP, $XLP ) dropped back to bearish.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-31

S&P500 Investing Styles

High Beta ( $SPHB ) bested all styles last week; Low Beta ( $SPLV ) was the worst performer and dropped back to bearish bias.  High Dividend ( $SPHD ) eased to neutral bias, and Defensives ( $POWA ) jumped back to bullish.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-31

COMMENTARY

Markets

The Tech sector propelled the S&P500 to is 9th consecutive up week.  If that seems like a lot, that’s because it IS a lot.  Dell Technologies ( $DELL ) blowout earnings weren’t overlooked like Nvidia’s.  This week encompasses more important earnings for the sector, including cyber-security firms Palo Alto Networks ( $PANW ) and Crowdstrike ( $CRWD ), along with Broadcom ( $AVGO ), a member of the recently expanded Magnificent 7 ( the Mag7+ or Mag 10 ).

With an impending IPO in June, SpaceX is sucking up more and more oxygen in financial media.  Last week saw a critical mass of headlines finally bring aspects of the listing to light, specifically the unprecedented rules changes being enacted with the filing.  And thanks to a couple of those rule changes, you’re going to own it soon via index funds, whether you want to or not.

1. Waiting period for Index Funds
   • Historically, new IPOs traded for up to a year before being allowed to join an index like the Nasdaq.  On May 1, 2026, Nasdaq altered the timeframe, allowing any new listing, ranked in the top 40 by market cap, to enter the Nasdaq-100 after 15 trading days.  Other indexes (e.g. Russell 1000) decided to allow mega-caps, like SpaceX, to enter their indexes after 5 trading days.
   • Basically, the new rule significantly reduces the price-discovery period, meaning anyone doing fundamental analysis has very little time to audit a company properly.  That’s kind of a big deal when said company’s first financial statement showed a ~$5 billion net loss for 2025.
2. Share Availability (Spot Gamma)
   • Passive indexes required new additions to have ~10% of their shares “free-float” (i.e. freely available to the public vs. locked up among insiders, founders, or private portfolios).  Most Large and Mega Cap stocks float around 20%.  SpaceX’s S-1 filing indicates that public float will be 3%-5%, so exchanges have eliminated minimum float constraints entirely for “top-tier” listings.
   • Because the float is so low, the indexes will apply a float multiplier when determining the weighting SpaceX will have in the index, thereby increasing how much of the free-float indexes will be forced to buy (or sell when the time comes).

So what’s the takeaway?  For an index owner, not much, other than the new risks to the index.  For sector, style, or individual stocks, the impacts may be more noticeable.  Basically, SpaceX stock will have guaranteed demand from index funds when they need to rebalance.  And any stock with a large index weighting (i.g. Mag 7) will see selling pressure during that timeframe.  A mini-example played out on Friday, when major indexes experienced some forced rebalancing ( e.g. MSCI Equity Indexes ).  In the last 15 minutes of the session, Nvidia plunged more than 2%, while Microsoft jumped 1.5%.  Even Cramer commented:

Every rebalance for Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI will lead to the chaos we saw at 3:50 p.m. unless we take this stuff out of the shadows. The manipulation potential is so fraught and the losses will be so palpable that it has to be discussed ahead of time to stave it off!!! @jimcramer

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

April PCE (y/y) hit +3.8%, higher than March and much higher than last year’s +2.3%.  That’s a significant increase in the rate of change!  Core PCE told a similar story: +3.3% y/y, higher than March and much higher than April 2025.  Given the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the trend higher likely continues into the summer months.

The second estimate of Q1 GDP came in at +1.6%, which means the U.S. economy likely avoided stagflation in the first part of the year.  The GDP comparisons get harder in Q2 and Q3, which both saw growth near 4% in 2025.

Geopolitics

Social media was abuzz with rumors that the U.S. and Iran had reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement.  While a framework may be available, the actions speak louder than words and there’s been no change in the military posture or Strait of Hormuz traffic, despite the drop in oil price.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

It’s employment week in macro land, alongside the latest PMI data.

• Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Tuesday: JOLTS
• Wednesday: ADP Payrolls, ISM Services PMI
• Thursday: —
• Friday: NFP

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: May 24th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place, with U.S. markets closed on Monday.

Developed Market Equities, Utilities, and an odd mix of styles outperformed; Oil and Communications underperformed.  Surging bond yields and geopolitics continue to exert their influence over asset prices as we head into June.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9% last week.  The index is:

• ~7% above the 50-day moving average
• ~10% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
  • No change
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • Two distribution days will fall out of the count this week
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-24

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Developed Market Equities ( $VEA ) led assets higher last week, with Oil and Bitcoin ( $USO, $IBIT ) underperforming.  U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ) clawed their way back to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-24

S&P500 Sectors

Utilities ( $XLU ) led the market higher after experiencing an oversold bounce. Communications ( $XLC ) lagged and slide back to neutral bias.  Healthcare ( $XLV ) had a strong week and was able to reclaim bullish bias; Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) shifted back to bullish bias as well.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-24

S&P500 Investing Styles

A 3-way tie for best investing style last week between High Beta, Small Cap Growth and High Dividend ( $SPHB, $IWO, $SPHD ) .  There was also a tie for “worst” style, with Large and Mega Cap Growth ( $IWF, $OEF ) only gaining 0.50%.  The gains in High Dividend were enough to improve to bullish bias, and Low Beta moved from bearish to neutral.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-24

COMMENTARY

Markets

Given the lack of macro data released last week, you’d be forgiven if you expected Nvidia’s blowout earnings report to have a bigger impact on equity prices.  While the technology sector responded positively, it appears geopolitical uncertainty, rising bond yields, and the specter of rate hikes were enough to offset AI enthusiasm.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

FOMC meeting minutes showed a U.S. Federal Reserve contemplating the possibility of rate hikes if inflation continued to move away from their long-run target.  And Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on Friday.

Geopolitics

Social media diplomacy continued last week, with both sides of the U.S.-Iran “Maritime Conflict & Ceasefire” issuing conflicting updates.  This may turn into the ultimate “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, given the recent moves in rates, bonds, and inflation haven’t significantly impact equity indexes.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Short trading week in the U.S. with markets closed Monday for Memorial Day.

• Monday: U.S. Market Closed (Memorial Day)
• Tuesday: —
• Wednesday: —
• Thursday: PCE (April), Q1 GDP (2nd Estimate)
• Friday: —

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: May 17th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place after the index reached another all time high.

Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Growth outperformed; Emerging Markets, Consumer Discretionary, and Small/MidCap value underperformed.  Inflation data was much higher than expected, pushing interest rates above long-term levels and pressuring other assets.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.1% last week.  The index is:

• ~8% above the 50-day moving average
• ~10% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
  • No change
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • Another distribution day added to the count ( 4 )
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-17

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) led to the upside last week.  Emerging Market Equities ( $EEM) reversed the prior weeks win and led to the downside.  U.S. and Development Market Bonds ( $IEF, $BNDX ) fell to bearish bias after a strong move in long-dated interest rates, while the US Dollar ( $DXY ) moved up to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-17

S&P500 Sectors

A week after leading to the downside and falling to bearish bias, Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed all other sectors in dramatic fashion, bested the index by than 6%, and reclaimed bullish bias.  Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) was the worst sector.  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) shifted back to neutral bias, while Industrials ( $XLI ) fell to bearish.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-17

S&P500 Investing Styles

Large Cap Growth ( $IEF ) led to the upside, one of two outperformers.  Small and Mid Cap Value ( $IWN, $IJJ ) tied for the worst performance, though High Beta, Mid Cap Growth, and Defensives ( $SPHB, $IJH, $POWA ) weren’t far behind.  There were no bias changes.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-17

COMMENTARY

Markets

The jump in inflation data ( more below ) sent interest rates up, particularly on the long-end of the curve, with renewed fears of a “higher for longer” environment.  30-year U.S. Treasuries hit 5.12% on Friday, the highest level since July of 2007.  Resurgent oil prices and a stronger dollar added to the downward pressure on other asset classes.

According to the International Energy Agency ( IEA ), the crude oil in storage tanks and tanker ships is dwindling at a record pace.  They warned that even with a reopened Hormuz , the market could remain undersupplied until October and raising probabilities of global shortages.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

CPI inflation hit +3.8% in April; up 1.5% verses last years April reading of +2.3%!  That’s a big move.  Interestingly, Core CPI was flat during the same time period, showing the impact of food and energy prices over the past 12 months.

It was the PPI reading that surprised market participants, hitting +6% in April…up from +2.4% at this time last year (yes, that means PPI is more than double last years figure).  Even the month over month was much higher than expected, and that includes an increased to March figures. Core increased to +5.2%, not quite double last years figure of +3.1%, but nothing to celebrate.

Geopolitics

A quiet week in the U.S.-Iran “Maritime Conflict & Ceasefire” saga, as investors focused on the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.  The meetings generated corporate headlines and photo ops, but didn’t not result in any major policy agreements…but be on the lookout for social media diplomacy nonetheless.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

This week is light on high impact news: FOMC meeting minutes on Tuesday.  Lower impact data sets includes pending home sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Flash PMI.

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Wednesday: —
• Thursday: —
• Friday: —

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: May 10th = Uptrend

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place with the indexes reaching new all time highs.

Emerging Market, Technology, and Momentum outperformed; Oil, Energy, Low Beta underperformed.  Employment data was better than expected, as investors now await the latest CPI/PPI inflation datasets.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 2.3% last week, riding the recent accumulation of technology and semiconductor stocks.  The index is now:

• ~8% above the 50-day moving average
• ~10% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
  • No change
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • Another distribution day added to the count ( 4 )
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-10

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Emerging market equities ( $EEM )  led assets on the upside last week, and Oil ( $USO ) gave back some recent gains. Developed Market Bonds ( $BNDX ) moved up to bullish and the US Dollar ( $DXY) moved down to bearish bias.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-10

S&P500 Sectors

Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed all other sectors in dramatic fashion.  Energy ( $XLE ) led to the downside, and dropped to bearish bias, along with Utilities ( $XLU ).

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-10

S&P500 Investing Styles

It was a risk on week in sector styles, with Momentum ( $MTUM ) and High Beta ( $SPHB ) outpacing the rest o the field.  Low Beta ( $SPLV ) underperformed.  There were no bias changes.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-10

COMMENTARY

Markets

Another week, another set of record highs for U.S. equities.  As of Friday’s close, the S&P500 recorded six consecutive weekly gains, thanks in large part to the technology sector and semiconductor stocks.  Even Bitcoin joined the party, after a rough 6 month stretch, while the Gold correction continues.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

ISM Services PMI slipped slightly in April, but continues to show an expansion in place.

The latest employment data shows a “low hire, low fire” environment remains in place.  March job openings (JOLTs) eased slightly, while private businesses (ADP employment) hired well above forecasts.  NFP was higher year over year and exceeded expectations, despite being lower month over month.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a record low, with inflation and rising gasoline prices the major concerns.

Geopolitics

The U.S.-Iran “Maritime Conflict & Ceasefire” continues to provide financial markets with all the instability they can handle.  Event-driven traders are having a field day in commodities, using various announcements and social media headlines as catalysts.

Underneath those headlines, follow-on and secondary effects from the supply chain disruption continue to grow.  China’s recent export restriction on sulfuric acid adds to the current Hormuz-related shortages, and is expected to further increase prices in a wide swath of industries, from copper mining all the way to fertilizer production.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

This week provides the latest CPI/PPI datasets, along with retail sales and a tentative nomination of the new Fed Chair by the US Senate.

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: CPI, Fed Chair Nomination ( tentative )
• Wednesday: PPI
• Thursday: Retail Sales
• Friday: —

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook: May 3rd = Uptrend

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to start the first full week of May.

Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Value outperformed; Gold, Industrials, and Defensives underperformed.  Mag 7 earnings came through for the market again, and investors now turn their attention to this week’s employment data.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9% last week, thanks to a strong move higher on Thursday.  The index is now:

• ~6% above the 50-day moving average
• ~8% above the 200-day moving average

The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
  • No change
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
  • Another distribution days added to the count
  • Trading volume remains subdued
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish
  • No change

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-03

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

Asset Classes

Oil ( $USO ) led asset prices higher for a second consecutive week.  Gold ( $GLD ) lagged…again.  Emerging Market Bonds ( $PCY ) eased back to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-03

S&P500 Sectors

Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed last week, ending Technology’s bid for 4 consecutive weeks leading to the upside.  Industrials ( $XLI ) underperformed. Communications ( $XLC ) climbed back bullish bias.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-03

S&P500 Investing Styles

In a bit of a surprise, Large Cap Value ( $IWX ) was the leading sector style.  Defensives ( $POWA ) underperformed.  There were no bias changes.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-03

COMMENTARY

Markets

From a market standpoint, Magnificent 7 earnings didn’t disappoint, again, pushing equities higher midweek. That said, investors didn’t reward every report.  Alphabet’s revenue beat and increased capital expenditure guidance sent shares soaring; Amazon and Apple carried their weight as well. Microsoft’s strong results didn’t provide the same boost in share price. Meta had the worst luck, with investors sending shares lower due to increased capex figures.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

The FOMC held rates steady, in what was likely Chairman Powell’s last press conference.

The first estimate of Q1 GDP came in at +2%, which was slightly below estimates but still a welcome increase year over year.  March PCE, which reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States, came in at +3.5% year over year; Core was +3.2%.  Combined, these datapoints show an inflationary environment in place for much of the first quarter.

ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady in April, continuing the expansion in place since January.

Geopolitics

A quiet week on the geopolitical front, relatively speaking, with the U.S./Iran cease-fire holding and potential deals being discussed through back channels.

EYES ON THE HORIZON

The first full week of May is all about employment data: March Job Openings ( JOLTS ), April employment change ( ADP ), and April Non-farm Payrolls ( NFP ).

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: ISM Services, JOLTS
• Wednesday: ADP Job Openings
• Thursday: —
• Friday: NFP, Consumer Sentiment

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.

Disclaimer:
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.
Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any products available through Invest‑Safely.com is subject to
our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.