The Safe Investing Blog

Market Outlook entering the Week of October 4th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Buy signal
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages remained below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US stocks showed signs of life last week, with higher volume up days indicating the start of a new uptrend.  OEW also confirmed an uptrend, so odds are good that the markets will see at least a short-term rally.  If so, the next few weeks will be a great time to readjust your holdings, especially if you’ve managed to hold on to positions since August.

2015-10-04 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of September 27th = Downtrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Sell signal
  All the major stock market averages fell below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages remained below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US stocks retreated last week.  We’re still waiting for confirmation of the longer-term trend, so continue to monitor your positions and keep your losses small.

2015-09-27 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of September 20th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Buy Signal
  All the major stock market averages rose above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages remained below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
On the upside, markets flashed a short-term buy signal by crossing their 20-day moving averages.

On the downside, markets encountered downward price action on very high trading volumes Thursday and Friday.  Apparently, the big investors weren’t too happy about the Fed’s decision not to raise rates.

We’re still waiting for a retest of the 1860’s.  According to OEW, a bounce will take us back to new price highs, effectively extending the bull market another 2-6 months before giving way to bear market.  If that price level doesn’t hold and the market continues downward, the bull market is over.

2015-09-20 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of September 13th = Downtrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
  4 of the 5 major stock market averages remained below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages remained below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
A little less volatility last week, and US stocks were able to gain some ground (~2%).  That also means we’re still waiting for a trend confirmation.

We’ll likely need a retest of recent lows (1,850’s for the S&P500) to make that determination.  Failure to hold that level results in a bear market, and a bounce of that level results in some nice gains as the bull continues.

2015-09-13 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week