The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 10th = Downtrend 

Not so happy start to 2016 if you’re long US equities.  Trading volumes came back in a big way, and came via a lot of selling.

Read more after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Jan 10, 2016

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 3rd = Mixed

Price/volume action actually confirmed an uptrend, but two additional distribution days may have already derailed the rally. OEW continues to lean towards an uptrend, but still no confirmation. Trading volumes should get back to normal this week, which should give us better technical indicators.

Read more after the jump – Stock Market Outlook – Jan 3, 2016

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 27th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend 
  4 of the 5 major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  4 of the 5 major stock market averages ended the week below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
A short trading week in the US, and some upward price movement, was enough to change the market outlook heading into the last week of 2015.  Price/volume and OEW are now leaning towards an uptrend.

However, short weeks and low trading volumes are not the stuff that uptrends are made of…best to enjoy the holidays and sit tight!

2015-12-27 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 20th = Downtrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All major stock market averages ended the week below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Last Friday was a “quadruple witching day” for the US market.  With something like $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring, volatility was a given.  Unfortunately price movement was to the downside, and not even the mid-week, Fed rate hike rally could help.

Price/volume and OEW are both leaning towards a downtrend, but nothing is completely confirmed at this point.  Until the market shows some signs of strength, it’s best to remain cautious and protect your capital.

2015-12-20 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 13th = Downtrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages fell below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  All the major stock market averages fell below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All major stock market averages fell or remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Last week saw a continuation of bearish market action, with stocks taking a major beating on Friday.  Price/volume action, as well as OEW both confirm that a correction has taken hold, which is the bad news.

The good news?  The bull market that won’t die will do just that, extending into 2016.

2015-12-13 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 6th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend 
  All the major stock market averages closed above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  4 of the 5 the major stock market averages remained above  their 50-day moving averages, and the NYSE closed above that mark by Friday.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed 
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages remained above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Last week had a lot of volatility, which has interesting implications on the length of the current uptrend.

Thursday saw a very bearish move, with the S&P500 taking out the 200-day moving average on high trading volume.  Friday answered with a bullish move, allowing the S&P500 to retake the 200-day moving average, albeit on slightly lower trading volume.

Per OEW, there are two likely scenarios:

• If Thursdays action continues, we’re likely to see another correction, which would delay the end of the current bull market until we have another chance to test all-time highs (probably sometime in 2016).
• If Friday’s action continues, we’re likely to see new highs in the next few weeks, which could spell the end of current bull market shortly thereafter.

Given the recent number of distribution days, the coming interest rate hike, and the normal, end-of-year tax loss harvesting, I think we’ll see a correction, and then the bull market extend into 2016.

But it doesn’t matter what I think.  Be prepared for either situation; update your watch list for good buying opportunities, and keep you losses small for current holdings.

2015-12-06 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of November 29th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend 
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages (NYSE & Russell 2000) remained above  their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed 
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages remained above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
A short, lightly traded week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.  Price/volume cues continue to indicate an uptrend.  And we’re still in an uptrend per OEW, although not without some storm clouds on the horizon:

Typically markets lose 45% to 50% of their value during these  [upcoming bear market] types of declines. With 55% of the world’s indices already in confirmed bear markets, and another 30% looking like they may already be in bear markets, [the current uptrend] will certainly run into some headwinds after it makes new highs.

2015-11-29 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week