The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 11th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
• Institutional Activity: Bullish
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook maintains an uptrend, despite geopolitical turmoil and news-driven volatility.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.6% last week.  The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

All three technical indicators are bullish to start the week.  Price broke out of a recent trading range and the index dropped a few distribution days from the overall count.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Jan 11 2026

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) outperformed by a wide margin, thought Industrials  ( $XLI ) was a close second.  Utilities ( $XLU ) underperformed; the only sector in the red.  Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) improved to bullish bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 03 of 2026

All sector styles made headway last week, but it was Small Cap Value ( $IWN ) leading the charge.  Interestingly, the “Value” category ( $IWN, $IJJ, $IWX ) has improved more than all other styles over the past 4 weeks, on a relative basis.  High Dividend ( $SPHD ) underperformed.  Low Beta ( $SPLV ) moved back to neutral; High Dividend and Defensives ( $POWA ) improved to bullish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 03 of 2026

Gold ( $GLD ) returned to the win column last week, leading assets higher.  Bonds ( $IEF )   lagged.  Oil ( $USO ) moved back to bullish bias after almost 4 months in bearish territory.  Time will tell if it’s a retest or a breakout.  Bonds and U.S. dollar ( $DXY ) improved to neutral bias as well.

Asset Class Performance from Week 03 2026

COMMENTARY
In addition to geopolitical headlines, policy by social media ramped up again last week, with the U.S. defense sector in the crosshairs.  President Trump called out contractors and executives for their high dividends, stock buyback programs, and compensation packages, which sent most of the sector lower midweek.  A few hours later, he requested for a $1.5 trillion dollar defense budget for 2027 ( +66% vs. 2026 ), boosting stocks back to where they were.

After market hours on Friday, he declared a one-year ceiling of 10% on credit card interest rates.  Expect more news-drive volatility throughout the year, as political parties pander position ahead of mid-term elections.

December ISM Manufacturing PMI was 47.9 in December 2025, falling from November and below forecasts.  It’s the 3rd month of declines, and the lowest level since October 2024.  Services PMI  was 54.4, up from November and above forecasts.

Job openings ( JOLTS ) fell month over month, falling short of expectations and hitting the lowest level since September 2024.  December Non-farm Payrolls fell in December, coming in below a downwardly revised November figure, forecasts, and far off last December’s 323k number.  The downward revisions hint that employment is weaker than initial reporting suggests, which will influence the FOMC’s next interest rate decision.

Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2010079561581498856

This week’s data releases include December CPI and PPI figures, as well as the start of earnings season.

Source:  https://x.com/eWhispers/status/2009633514765877736

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 4th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
Happy New Year!  The stock market outlook kicks off 2026 in an uptrend, with asterisks.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1% last week.  The index sits 1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX directional indicators had moved into bullish territory over the holidays, but fell back to bearish Friday; the main average shows a market without trend, corresponding to the index moving sideways since the end of October.  The SPX is still above the 50-day moving average, though distribution days are high.  The two days of elevated selling during the holidays came on below average trading volumes, so not the strongest signal, but a bearish one nonetheless.  So the market outlook remains in an uptrend, while we wait for a breakdown or breakout from the recent trading range.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Jan 04 2026

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
We’ll kick off performance comparisons with a look at annual returns for the stock market outlook. During 2025, the $SPX netted a 942 point gain, from the January 2nd open to the December 31st close, for a gain of 16%.  During the same time period, the stock market outlook signals triggered six times, creating a net increase of ~1216 points, for a gain of 20.6%.

Outlook Performance for 2025

The stock market outlook continues to function as intended: lowering risk of loss.  Using the 3-signal combination improved returns by 4.6% versus buying and holding the index.  Said another way, these signals reduced losses from the first quarter drawdown by ~5%.

Returning to the near term, Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed last week and Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) underperformed.  Energy and Technology ( $XLK ) slipped back to neutral bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 02 of 2026

High Dividend ( $SPHD ) stocks were the only style to close with a gain; the rest were led lower by Small Cap Growth ( $IWO ).  Small Cap Growth, along with Defensives ( $POWA ) , dropped to Bearish bias, while Large Cap Growth, Small Cap Value, and Momentum ( $IWF, $IWN, $MTUM ) slipped to neutral (all from bullish).

Sector Style Performance from Week 02 of 2026

US Bonds ( $IEF ) were the “best” asset class with a return of 0.1%.  That said, they also shifted from neutral to bearish bias.  Gold ( $GLD ) leading to the downside.

Asset Class Performance from Week 02 2026

COMMENTARY
As we head into January, the overall price and volume action shows the market consolidating for much of the 4th quarter.  There’s almost no trend to speak of (per ADX), and institutional investors were shifting their holdings around: high volume selling on the indexes without major price declines.  The rotation of flows also showed up in sector biases flipping back and forth for much of the 4th quarter.

On Saturday, investors woke up to news that the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had been removed from office by U.S. forces.  Our first peak at market reaction will be Sunday night futures, but it’s safe to assume there will be some volatility when the U.S. markets open tomorrow.

Looking ahead, we’ll get ISM, JOLTS, and NFP later this week.  And earnings season kicks off the following week with large banks reporting.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 14th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend as we head into the final trading days of 2025.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.1% last week.  The index sits 1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX directional indicators moved to bearish last week, but the main average is low and headed lower, showing a market without trend.  The market sliced through the 21-day and 50-day moving averages on higher volume (bearish), but recovered those levels the next day (potentially bullish).  Friday’s volume was generated by the largest option’s expiration ever, so not a lot of signal there either.  So the outlook stays in an uptrend until price and volume decide to pick a direction.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Dec 21 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) outperformed last week, one of a handful of sectors to end the week in the green.  Energy ( $XLE ) underperformed significantly, and also dropped back to bearish bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 51 of 2025

Momentum ( $MTUM ) led the sector style breakdown, but there wasn’t much to get exited about for bullish investors.  Small Cap Value ( $IWN ) led to the downside.  s the largest loser, again thanks to AI worries.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) shifted again, back to bullish bias this time. Low beta ( $SPLV ) downshifted back to bearish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 51 of 2025

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) was the worst asset class last week, and gold ( $GLD ) outperformed.  The U.S. dollar ( $DXY ) managed to regain neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 51 2025

COMMENTARY
The October NFP report showed a decrease in jobs (-105k vs. +108k Sept & +44k Oct 2024), but wasn’t all that surprising given the government shutdown’s impact on numbers.  November NFP did the opposite, far outpacing Octobers loss (+64k), but was well below last year’s November number of +261k.

November CPI came in below estimates, but there was A LOT of missing data, so it’s hard to get really excited about the improvement.

Trading activity should be well below normal levels for the next two weeks, with the arrival of Christmas and New Year’s holidays.  Low activity also means low liquidity, which could make any surprise even more jarring. Hopefully it’s to the upside!  But given the mixed messages from macroeconomic and technical analysis, it’s not a bad idea to place some stops at any key levels you’ve been eyeing, just in case.

Markets close early on Wednesday, remain closed on Thursday, and then reopen for Friday to close out the week.  The following week will also feature shortened trading hours thanks to New Years Day.  So this will be the last post for the year; the next outlook will be on Jan 4 2026.

May your holidays be filled with joy, peace, and love, and I wish you much happiness and prosperity in the year ahead.  

Merry Christmas!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 14th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, but stocks have struggled to make much progress over the past two weeks.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) lost 0.6% last week.  The index sits 1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

No change in the signals again this week; still waiting for institutional activity to confirm the latest rally attempt.  It’s worth noting that we’re outside the ideal window for a follow-through day (4-7 days after the initial reversal).  Wednesday looked like it had a chance, but didn’t manage to move more than 1%.  During the wait, the market picked up 4 distribution days, which isn’t very promising.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Dec 14 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Financials and Materials ( $XLF & $XLB ) broke out last week.  Technology ( $XLK ) led the to downside on AI-related worries.  Staples and Materials ( $XLP & $XLB ) returned to bullish bias from Neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 50 of 2025

The Small Cap Value ( $IWN ) investing style was the largest gainer. Large Cap Growth ( $IWF ) was the largest loser, again thanks to AI worries.  In a reversal of last week’s changes, Large Cap Growth and Momentum ( $IWF & $MTUM ) shifted back to neutral bias; Low Beta and High Dividend ( $SPLV & $SPHD ) styles moved up to neutral from bearish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 50 of 2025

Oil ( $USO ) was the worst asset class last week, giving back most of the prior week’s improvement.  Gold ( $GLD ) underperformed.  Oil, U.S. Bonds and the U.S. dollar ( $USO, $IEF, $DXY ) all moved to bearish bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 50 2025

COMMENTARY
The FOMC the overnight interest rate by 0.25%.  No surprise there.  They also announced the “purchase of shorter-term Treasury securities, as needed, to maintain an ample supply of reserves”.  Some talking heads say this is quantitative easing, but that’s not quite right.

During quantitative tightening, which just ended, the Fed reduced its balance sheet by $2.4 trillion dollars.  Now, they’ll let the balance sheet grow, as needed, to ensure our financial plumbing operates smoothly.  This is basically the policy that was in place prior to the Great Recession.  So it’s “easing” in the sense they’re shifting from tightening to maintaining.  But have no illusions; if/when the economy/jobs weaken enough, the next round of QE will be unleashed in spectacular fashion.

Several macro tickers have moved back and forth between bias categories over the past 2 weeks, which can make for frustrated investors. Given the lack of confirmation from institutional activity, it pays to wait for a confirmation before scaling up any positions.

Looking ahead, a big week of macroeconomic data is on tap.  On Tuesday, we get the first NFP report since the government shutdown, along with October retail sales.  The market gets a chance to digest those numbers Wednesday, before the November CPI release Thursday.  Exiting home sales for November hits the wire Friday.

It’s also a quadruple witching day; the final options expiration of the year, as well as the roll-over of equity futures contracts.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 7th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, with the market looking forward to this week’s FOMC meeting.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.3% last week.  The index sits ~1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

No change in the signals this week; the ADX and On-Balance Volume are bullish, while institutional activity is still mixed.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Dec 07 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed last week.  Utilities ( $XLU ) led the to downside and shifted to bearish bias.  Real Estate ( $XLRE ) also fell to Bearish, Staples and Materials ( $XLP & $XLB ) downshifted to Neutral.  Communications and Discretionary ( $XLC & $XLY ) moved from Neutral to Bullish.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 49 of 2025

High Beta ( $SPHB ) investing style was the largest gainer, and Low Beta ( $SPLV ) was the largest loser.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) shifted back into bullish bias; Low Beta and High Dividend ( $SPLV & $SPHD ) styles moved to bearish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 49 of 2025

Oil ( $USO ) was the best asset class last week.  After a rough stretch, Oil moved up to Neutral bias, signaling potential bullish price action ahead.  Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed.  Bonds and the US dollar ( $IEF & $DXY ) also moved to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 49 2025

COMMENTARY
Trading volume was muted last week; no surprise for the start of the holiday season.  But that means we’re still waiting for institutional activity to confirm a new rally.

November’s ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, which was lower than estimates, October data, and on a year-over-year basis. Services PMI rose to 52.6 in November, above forecasts and October data, and matching last year.

September PCE data was inline with estimates, and remains “sticky”.

This week, JOLTS for September and October are set for release on Tuesday, followed by another FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 30th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook flipped back into an uptrend, after spending a few sessions below key moving averages.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rallied 3.7% last week.  The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX moved to bullish, rejoining On-Balance Volume, and putting the outlook back into an uptrend with 2 of 3 signals indicating bullish price action. Institutional activity was light last week; despite the rally back above the 50-day moving average, none of the price action met the criteria for a new uptrend.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Nov 30 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
All sectors ended the week higher last week, with Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) leading the way with an impressive ~7% gain.  Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and Technology regained bullish bias, while Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate move back to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 48 of 2025

The gains continued across all sector styles, with Small Cap Growth putting in a ~9% improvement.  Every category also improved its bias, with a majority now back in bullish territory.

Sector Style Performance from Week 48 of 2025

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) outperformed last week, but all asset classes gained ground versus the dollar.  Both Bonds and Equities ( $IEF & $SPY ) moved back to bullish bias as well.

Asset Class Performance from Week 48 2025

COMMENTARY
Market participants were in a giving mood last week, pumping most assets higher during the holiday shortened week.  Not enough institutional activity for a confirmed rally, but not a bad way to end November either.

There was definitely broad participation in the gains last week, but the lower trading volumes mean most breakouts were probably weak.  Large price moves on increased volume after a period of consolidation is what you want to see when evaluating your watchlists.

Headline PPI from September showed no change, while core was down 0.3% y/y.  September retail sales and Durable Goods orders also fell slightly verses last year.

This week we’ll get ISM PMI data for November, and a September PCE number on Friday!

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 23rd = Downtrend

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
• Institutional Activity: Bearish
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shifted to a downtrend last Monday, putting equities into a correction after a gain of more than 20% from the April lows.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1.9% last week.  The index sits ~2% below the 50-day moving average and ~7% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX is bearish. Institutional selling ramped up, adding 3 distribution days to the count.  But it was Monday’s high volume move through the 50-day moving average that shifted the indicator to bearish and the outlook to a downtrend.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Nov 23 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Healthcare ( $XLV ) led sectors higher for the third straight week; the only sector showing any real resilience.  Energy ( $XLE ) is the other bullish sector, but it’s still finding its footing.  Technology ( $XLK ) underperformed significantly and dropped to bearish bias.  Utilities ( $XLU ) eased back to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 47 of 2025

Low Beta ( $SPLV ) outperformed other sector styles, but still lost steam during the week and moved to neutral bias.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) led to the downside.  High Beta, Large and Mega Cap Growth ( $SPHB, $IWF, $OEF ) moved to bearish bias; Large Cap Value and Quality ( $IWX, $QUAL ) moved to neutral.

Sector Style Performance from Week 47 of 2025

Bonds ( $IEF ) outperformed last week, but all assets have been weaker versus the dollar.  The crypto space continues to experience deleveraging, so no surprise that Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) was the laggard again.

Asset Class Performance from Week 47 2025

COMMENTARY
Institutions were definitely reducing their exposures last week, especially on Thursday.  Market participants dumped risk-on plays, such as the Technology sector, High Beta/Momentum sector styles, and cryptocurrency assets.  Excluding crypto, those categories are still within 10% of their all time highs, so they’re not priced at a discount just yet ( $SPHB was up ~80% from the April low ).

Last week’s release of FOMC minutes showed that members are divided on how to proceed on interest rates:  lower them to help the job market or keep them steady to fight inflation. Equity market participants were pricing in a December rate cut.  A less than certain reduced that probability, which may have influenced capital flows last week.

Although they’re fewer and farther between these days, corrections are normal and actually a welcome aspect of investing.  When they occur, investors get a chance to find assets that are “truly” oversold, or at the very least no longer overbought.

Corrections aren’t typically “one and done”, meaning there’s usually a retest and then another move lower.  We saw this play out earlier in the year, when stocks sold off in February, consolidated in March, then bottomed in April.  Perhaps we correct in November, get that Santa Claus rally in December, and bottom in January closer to the 200-day moving average.

Regardless of the narrative, risk-on assets are bearish across a wide range of categories right now.  While there are pockets of strength for short-term plays ( e.g. Healthcare ), you’ll want to broader participation before making moves.  Or at least see the Mag 7 turn around, since they’re so heavily weighted within indexes.

Over the coming sessions, dust off those watchlists, pick companies with high quality fundamentals with high quality chart patterns, and then look for signs that institutions are back on the buy side: accumulation days ( large daily moves higher on increasing volume ) and price regaining/remaining above key moving averages ( 21 day and 50 day ).

Next week starts the holiday trading season, with Thursday market closures for thanksgiving in the US.  PPI and retail sales on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Wednesday.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) initially scheduled PCE for Wednesday, but the release has been delayed.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security