The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 14th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend as we head into the final trading days of 2025.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.1% last week.  The index sits 1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX directional indicators moved to bearish last week, but the main average is low and headed lower, showing a market without trend.  The market sliced through the 21-day and 50-day moving averages on higher volume (bearish), but recovered those levels the next day (potentially bullish).  Friday’s volume was generated by the largest option’s expiration ever, so not a lot of signal there either.  So the outlook stays in an uptrend until price and volume decide to pick a direction.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Dec 21 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) outperformed last week, one of a handful of sectors to end the week in the green.  Energy ( $XLE ) underperformed significantly, and also dropped back to bearish bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 51 of 2025

Momentum ( $MTUM ) led the sector style breakdown, but there wasn’t much to get exited about for bullish investors.  Small Cap Value ( $IWN ) led to the downside.  s the largest loser, again thanks to AI worries.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) shifted again, back to bullish bias this time. Low beta ( $SPLV ) downshifted back to bearish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 51 of 2025

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) was the worst asset class last week, and gold ( $GLD ) outperformed.  The U.S. dollar ( $DXY ) managed to regain neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 51 2025

COMMENTARY
The October NFP report showed a decrease in jobs (-105k vs. +108k Sept & +44k Oct 2024), but wasn’t all that surprising given the government shutdown’s impact on numbers.  November NFP did the opposite, far outpacing Octobers loss (+64k), but was well below last year’s November number of +261k.

November CPI came in below estimates, but there was A LOT of missing data, so it’s hard to get really excited about the improvement.

Trading activity should be well below normal levels for the next two weeks, with the arrival of Christmas and New Year’s holidays.  Low activity also means low liquidity, which could make any surprise even more jarring. Hopefully it’s to the upside!  But given the mixed messages from macroeconomic and technical analysis, it’s not a bad idea to place some stops at any key levels you’ve been eyeing, just in case.

Markets close early on Wednesday, remain closed on Thursday, and then reopen for Friday to close out the week.  The following week will also feature shortened trading hours thanks to New Years Day.  So this will be the last post for the year; the next outlook will be on Jan 4 2026.

May your holidays be filled with joy, peace, and love, and I wish you much happiness and prosperity in the year ahead.  

Merry Christmas!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 14th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, but stocks have struggled to make much progress over the past two weeks.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) lost 0.6% last week.  The index sits 1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

No change in the signals again this week; still waiting for institutional activity to confirm the latest rally attempt.  It’s worth noting that we’re outside the ideal window for a follow-through day (4-7 days after the initial reversal).  Wednesday looked like it had a chance, but didn’t manage to move more than 1%.  During the wait, the market picked up 4 distribution days, which isn’t very promising.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Dec 14 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Financials and Materials ( $XLF & $XLB ) broke out last week.  Technology ( $XLK ) led the to downside on AI-related worries.  Staples and Materials ( $XLP & $XLB ) returned to bullish bias from Neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 50 of 2025

The Small Cap Value ( $IWN ) investing style was the largest gainer. Large Cap Growth ( $IWF ) was the largest loser, again thanks to AI worries.  In a reversal of last week’s changes, Large Cap Growth and Momentum ( $IWF & $MTUM ) shifted back to neutral bias; Low Beta and High Dividend ( $SPLV & $SPHD ) styles moved up to neutral from bearish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 50 of 2025

Oil ( $USO ) was the worst asset class last week, giving back most of the prior week’s improvement.  Gold ( $GLD ) underperformed.  Oil, U.S. Bonds and the U.S. dollar ( $USO, $IEF, $DXY ) all moved to bearish bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 50 2025

COMMENTARY
The FOMC the overnight interest rate by 0.25%.  No surprise there.  They also announced the “purchase of shorter-term Treasury securities, as needed, to maintain an ample supply of reserves”.  Some talking heads say this is quantitative easing, but that’s not quite right.

During quantitative tightening, which just ended, the Fed reduced its balance sheet by $2.4 trillion dollars.  Now, they’ll let the balance sheet grow, as needed, to ensure our financial plumbing operates smoothly.  This is basically the policy that was in place prior to the Great Recession.  So it’s “easing” in the sense they’re shifting from tightening to maintaining.  But have no illusions; if/when the economy/jobs weaken enough, the next round of QE will be unleashed in spectacular fashion.

Several macro tickers have moved back and forth between bias categories over the past 2 weeks, which can make for frustrated investors. Given the lack of confirmation from institutional activity, it pays to wait for a confirmation before scaling up any positions.

Looking ahead, a big week of macroeconomic data is on tap.  On Tuesday, we get the first NFP report since the government shutdown, along with October retail sales.  The market gets a chance to digest those numbers Wednesday, before the November CPI release Thursday.  Exiting home sales for November hits the wire Friday.

It’s also a quadruple witching day; the final options expiration of the year, as well as the roll-over of equity futures contracts.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 7th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, with the market looking forward to this week’s FOMC meeting.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.3% last week.  The index sits ~1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

No change in the signals this week; the ADX and On-Balance Volume are bullish, while institutional activity is still mixed.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Dec 07 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed last week.  Utilities ( $XLU ) led the to downside and shifted to bearish bias.  Real Estate ( $XLRE ) also fell to Bearish, Staples and Materials ( $XLP & $XLB ) downshifted to Neutral.  Communications and Discretionary ( $XLC & $XLY ) moved from Neutral to Bullish.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 49 of 2025

High Beta ( $SPHB ) investing style was the largest gainer, and Low Beta ( $SPLV ) was the largest loser.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) shifted back into bullish bias; Low Beta and High Dividend ( $SPLV & $SPHD ) styles moved to bearish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 49 of 2025

Oil ( $USO ) was the best asset class last week.  After a rough stretch, Oil moved up to Neutral bias, signaling potential bullish price action ahead.  Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed.  Bonds and the US dollar ( $IEF & $DXY ) also moved to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 49 2025

COMMENTARY
Trading volume was muted last week; no surprise for the start of the holiday season.  But that means we’re still waiting for institutional activity to confirm a new rally.

November’s ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, which was lower than estimates, October data, and on a year-over-year basis. Services PMI rose to 52.6 in November, above forecasts and October data, and matching last year.

September PCE data was inline with estimates, and remains “sticky”.

This week, JOLTS for September and October are set for release on Tuesday, followed by another FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 30th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bullish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook flipped back into an uptrend, after spending a few sessions below key moving averages.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rallied 3.7% last week.  The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX moved to bullish, rejoining On-Balance Volume, and putting the outlook back into an uptrend with 2 of 3 signals indicating bullish price action. Institutional activity was light last week; despite the rally back above the 50-day moving average, none of the price action met the criteria for a new uptrend.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Nov 30 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
All sectors ended the week higher last week, with Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) leading the way with an impressive ~7% gain.  Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, Materials, and Technology regained bullish bias, while Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate move back to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 48 of 2025

The gains continued across all sector styles, with Small Cap Growth putting in a ~9% improvement.  Every category also improved its bias, with a majority now back in bullish territory.

Sector Style Performance from Week 48 of 2025

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) outperformed last week, but all asset classes gained ground versus the dollar.  Both Bonds and Equities ( $IEF & $SPY ) moved back to bullish bias as well.

Asset Class Performance from Week 48 2025

COMMENTARY
Market participants were in a giving mood last week, pumping most assets higher during the holiday shortened week.  Not enough institutional activity for a confirmed rally, but not a bad way to end November either.

There was definitely broad participation in the gains last week, but the lower trading volumes mean most breakouts were probably weak.  Large price moves on increased volume after a period of consolidation is what you want to see when evaluating your watchlists.

Headline PPI from September showed no change, while core was down 0.3% y/y.  September retail sales and Durable Goods orders also fell slightly verses last year.

This week we’ll get ISM PMI data for November, and a September PCE number on Friday!

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 23rd = Downtrend

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
• Institutional Activity: Bearish
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shifted to a downtrend last Monday, putting equities into a correction after a gain of more than 20% from the April lows.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1.9% last week.  The index sits ~2% below the 50-day moving average and ~7% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX is bearish. Institutional selling ramped up, adding 3 distribution days to the count.  But it was Monday’s high volume move through the 50-day moving average that shifted the indicator to bearish and the outlook to a downtrend.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Nov 23 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Healthcare ( $XLV ) led sectors higher for the third straight week; the only sector showing any real resilience.  Energy ( $XLE ) is the other bullish sector, but it’s still finding its footing.  Technology ( $XLK ) underperformed significantly and dropped to bearish bias.  Utilities ( $XLU ) eased back to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 47 of 2025

Low Beta ( $SPLV ) outperformed other sector styles, but still lost steam during the week and moved to neutral bias.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) led to the downside.  High Beta, Large and Mega Cap Growth ( $SPHB, $IWF, $OEF ) moved to bearish bias; Large Cap Value and Quality ( $IWX, $QUAL ) moved to neutral.

Sector Style Performance from Week 47 of 2025

Bonds ( $IEF ) outperformed last week, but all assets have been weaker versus the dollar.  The crypto space continues to experience deleveraging, so no surprise that Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) was the laggard again.

Asset Class Performance from Week 47 2025

COMMENTARY
Institutions were definitely reducing their exposures last week, especially on Thursday.  Market participants dumped risk-on plays, such as the Technology sector, High Beta/Momentum sector styles, and cryptocurrency assets.  Excluding crypto, those categories are still within 10% of their all time highs, so they’re not priced at a discount just yet ( $SPHB was up ~80% from the April low ).

Last week’s release of FOMC minutes showed that members are divided on how to proceed on interest rates:  lower them to help the job market or keep them steady to fight inflation. Equity market participants were pricing in a December rate cut.  A less than certain reduced that probability, which may have influenced capital flows last week.

Although they’re fewer and farther between these days, corrections are normal and actually a welcome aspect of investing.  When they occur, investors get a chance to find assets that are “truly” oversold, or at the very least no longer overbought.

Corrections aren’t typically “one and done”, meaning there’s usually a retest and then another move lower.  We saw this play out earlier in the year, when stocks sold off in February, consolidated in March, then bottomed in April.  Perhaps we correct in November, get that Santa Claus rally in December, and bottom in January closer to the 200-day moving average.

Regardless of the narrative, risk-on assets are bearish across a wide range of categories right now.  While there are pockets of strength for short-term plays ( e.g. Healthcare ), you’ll want to broader participation before making moves.  Or at least see the Mag 7 turn around, since they’re so heavily weighted within indexes.

Over the coming sessions, dust off those watchlists, pick companies with high quality fundamentals with high quality chart patterns, and then look for signs that institutions are back on the buy side: accumulation days ( large daily moves higher on increasing volume ) and price regaining/remaining above key moving averages ( 21 day and 50 day ).

Next week starts the holiday trading season, with Thursday market closures for thanksgiving in the US.  PPI and retail sales on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Wednesday.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) initially scheduled PCE for Wednesday, but the release has been delayed.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 16th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend for U.S. equities, but the index hasn’t overcome recent technical weakness.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.1% last week.  The index sits at the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

Same breakdown, different week.  The ADX is bearish. Institutional activity shows elevated selling ( 5 distribution days ), but price recovered to 50-day moving average by Friday’s close, so the indicator is mixed.  On Balance Volume is bullish.  Since technical indicators haven’t confirmed any changes, the overall outlook remains bullish.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Nov 16 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Healthcare ( $XLV ) led sectors higher for the second week in a row.  Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) not only underperformed, but also fell from neutral to bearish bias.  Industrials ( $XLI ) also dropped to bearish.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 46 of 2025

Small Cap Growth ( $IWO ) significantly underperformed, while Low Beta ( $SPLV ) outperformed.  Small Cap Growth and Value, along with Quality ( $IWO, $IWN, $QUAL ) moved from Neutral to Bearish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 46 of 2025

Gold ( $GLD ) regained some of its luster and led assets higher.  Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed by a wide margin, dropping more than 9% and continuing the recent sell-off.  There were no changes to bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 46 2025

COMMENTARY
Another week, another save by a Friday bounce from the 50-day moving average.  The S&P500 is still up 20% since turning bullish earlier this year, but has only managed to rally ~2% over the past month.  More than half of the sectors are bearish, and the same can be said for sector styles.

If you’re bullish, you’re hoping that price has been consolidating while institutions rebalance their holdings, ahead of a Santa Claus rally to end the year.  If you’re bearish, you’re seeing a topping process as institutions lock-in profits by selling Technology and Large/Mega cap growth to retail investors.  Hopefully, you’re neither and just watching price to signal a direction.  It’s possible for both narratives to be correct.

The longest U.S. government shutdown, with funding secured through January 30, 2026.  So we might have to do this all over again in about 2 months. 4th quarter GDP will be negatively impacted, but we won’t know how much until next year.

Speaking of data, we should see data releases return to their normal schedules as well.  This week we get FOMC minutes on Wednesday, existing homes sales on Thursday, and another round of Fed speeches.  And don’t forget Nvidia ( $NVDA ) earnings on Wednesday after market close.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 9th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
• Institutional Activity: Mixed
• On-Balance Volume: Bullish

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend for U.S. equities, but signs of weakness are showing in the technical indicators.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1.6% last week.  The index sits ~1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX flipped to bearish early in the week.  Institutional activity shows elevated selling ( 5 distribution days ), but price recovered to 50-day moving average by Friday’s close, so the indicator is mixed into the week.  On Balance Volume remains bullish.  Since technical indicators are mixed, the overall outlook remains bullish for another week.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Nov 09 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Healthcare ( $XLV ) led sectors higher, while Technology ( $XLK ) underperformed significantly.

Consumer Discretionary and Industrials ( $XLY, $XLI ) fell to neutral bias; Communications ( $XLC ) downshifted to bearish.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 45 of 2025

All Sector styles lost ground last week, with Momentum and Large Cap Growth ( $MTUM & $IWF) ending the week with the worst performance.

Small Cap Growth and Value, along with Quality ( $IWO, $IWN, $QUAL ) moved from Bullish to Neutral.  Mid Cap Growth, Momentum, and Defensives ( $IJH, $MTUM, $POWA ) shifted to Bearish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 45 of 2025

The U.S. Dollar ( $DXY ) was the best asset again last week, and continues to act as a headwind for other classes.  Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) led to the downside, and is down almost 20% over the past 4 weeks.  Oil ( $USO ) fell back to Bearish bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 45 2025

COMMENTARY
We’ve reached an interesting junction for U.S. equity markets.  Fundamentally speaking, the S&P500 index is on track for more than 10% earnings growth in the 3rd quarter ( >80% of companies have reported ).  The Fed is easing; lowing short-term interest rates and ending quantitative tightening.  So tailwinds are present for a year end rally.

And yet, almost half of the sectors within the S&P500 are now bearish, suggesting selling underneath the surface.  As a market capitalization based index, the S&P500 is heavily influenced by the largest companies.  At the moment, the 10 largest firms account ~40% of the index, and 8 of the 10 are Mag 7 ( Google has two share classes in the Top 10 ).  Since they remain strong ( along with other technology companies like Broadcom ), so does the index overall, despite recent weakness in Meta ( $META ) and Microsoft ( $MSFT ).

But even with it’s heavy technology weighting, the $SPX hasn’t escaped unscathed.  Price sliced through its 21-day moving average (green line in the price chart above) on elevated volume, which is a level many short-term investors use for bias.  The index is now looking for support at the 50-day; more of a medium-term level.

With U.S. government still “closed” for business, it’s unlikely we’ll get October CPI/PPI data this week.  Instead, the market will look to various Fed speakers to provide some kind of insight on inflation.  Over the weekend, media headlines focused on the sharp increase in the cost of healthcare insurance.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security