The Safe Investing Blog

Market Outlook entering the Week of November 22nd = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Buy Signal 
  All the major stock market averages rose above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages (NYSE & Russell 2000) rose or remained above  their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed 
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US market prices rebounded last week, but volume was less than stellar.  The current uptrend contains a lot distribution days, and OEW continues to sound the alarm that we’re in the final stages of the current bull market.   So now is NOT time to initiate new or large positions unless you have a short-term time horizon.

I’ve continued to cut losses as needed, but now I’m also looking for signs of weakness in my more profitable positions (prices falling below key technical support levels, negative changes in financial performance, etc.)

2015-11-22 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of November 15th = Short-term downtrend/Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Sell Signal
  All the major stock market averages fell below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Mixed
  2 of the major stock market averages (NYSE & Russell 2000) fell below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Sell Signal 
  All of the major stock market averages fell or remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US markets ran into some heavy selling last week, indicated by downward price action with higher trading volumes.  The updated market outlook has a lot of red in it, but that’s not surprising since we’re only a few weeks away from the start of the latest medium-term uptrend.  The 200-day moving averages are higher than then 50-day moving averages, which normally occurs after a heavy sell-off like the one the US markets encountered in late August and September.

That said, this latest sell-off means we’re one step closer to the end of the current bull market in US equities.  According to OEW, the markets have one more rally in them.  The S&P500 is expected to make new highs (2134+) before it’s over, which is ~5% from Friday’s close.  After that point, we’re on borrowed time.

Prepare accordingly!

2015-11-15 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of November 8th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages remained above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
No major changes over the past week, so the outlook also remains unchanged.   I did notice that some of my dividend/income holdings got hammered last week.  I assume the selling was news-related, stemming from all the talk of a December interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.  Whatever the reasons, or your strategy for that matter, keep in mind the following estimates from Tony over at OEW:

The [next] bear market should last about two years and the market should lose between 45% and 50% of its value… After six years of rising prices it is time to prepare for a couple years of declining prices.

Prepare accordingly!

2015-11-08 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of November 1st = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Several indexes are back above their 200-day moving averages, which adds more credence to the latest uptrend.    It remains a good time to do some short-term trading, or make adjustments to your longer term holdings.

2015-11-01 – US Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of October 25th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
The rally in US stocks continues.  Since we’re in the final leg of our 6 year bull market, this is the perfect time to make adjustments to your portfolio…much like you prepare for the winter months in autumn.  So start adjusting your position sizes, your asset mix, and take some profits.

2015-10-25 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of October 18th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages closed above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US stocks extended their rally through week 3.  To reiterate my comments from last week, we don’t know is how long the rally will last, so consider a two prong approach:  make money by trading shorter-term growth stocks, and take profits from your longer term positions.

Sadly, the end of the current bull market is on the horizon.  But there is a silver lining.  Here’s what OEW has to say:

When it does conclude a … bear market should then follow, with the market losing between 45% and 50% of its value. This is likely to take one to two years. After that, a 30+ year Cycle wave [3] should get underway, with bull/bear markets along the way…

Talk about a once in a lifetime investing opportunity!

2015-10-18 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of October 11th = Medium-term uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Buy Signal
  All the major stock market averages rose above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Downtrend
  All of the major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
US stocks continue to rally, maintain the rally that started two weeks ago.  It appears we’ve entered the P5 wave (according to OEW), meaning this uptrend will the last one of the current bull market.  We don’t know is how long the rally will last, so consider a two prong approach:  make money by trading shorter-term growth stocks, and take profits from your longer term positions.

2015-10-11 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week