Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 3rd = Uptrend
- Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.
- Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
All the major stock market averages remained above their 50-day moving averages.
- Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
4 of the 5 major stock market averages rose or remained above their 200-day moving averages.
The market uptrend looks set to continue, with positive price action across the major indexes last week. Performance to long-term moving averages improved, with 4 of the 5 averages closing above their 200-day for the week. Price/volume action and OEW continue to support the uptrend label.
The latest rally has been a great example of a money making opportunity within a bearish market. I expected this rally to be short-lived (2/28 and 3/6). Clearly, the market has not cooperated and my expectations were wrong. But my goal isn’t to be right. My goal is to make money.
The issue for most investors is that they’d rather be right…it’s part of the reason people hold on to losing positions. Everyone likes to talk about the great gains they’ve made…but few want to admit defeat and adjust their positions based on market conditions. That’s why I invest and trade using a process. The trading rules increase the likelihood that I make money all the time…not just when I’m right about a market trend.
Moving Average Signals:
- Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
- Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
- Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
- Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week