Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 8th = Downtrend
- 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
- Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
Last week’s market agitator came in the form of tit-for-tat tariff announcements between the U.S. and China. What this week has in store is anyone’s guess.
All the indexes remain below their 20 and 50 day moving averages. Prices continue to find support near the 200 day moving average, which is a good sign.
Price and volume action remains downtrend territory. A look at the weekly chart (below) shows higher trading volume on down weeks versus up weeks since the start of 2018; definitely a sign of price weakness and institutional selling.
OEW analysis indicates that the current downtrend may have bottomed, but we still need to see an confirmation of the uptrend before changing the signal.
Revisiting the technical analysis from last week, in the daily view we can see a descending triangle pattern. This pattern is usually bearish, but let the price dictate your actions.
The pattern’s floor is the 2581.00 price level; watch for a high volume close below that level. Last Monday, prices actually dipped below 2581, but recovered by the end of the day to close at 2158.88 (whoa, that was close)! Alternatively, a close above the upper trendline (~2740 to start the week) would be very bullish.
The ADX indicator is basically unchanged from last week; the DI- remains higher than the DI+ (bearish), and the ADX line is flat.
Moving to the weekly view, the S&P500 crossed below the price channels lower trendline during the week. Thanks to a late-date on Friday, price closed above the lower channel, so the current bull market lives to see another day.
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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:
- 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook