Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 15th = Downtrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
U.S. markets contended with the threat of an escalation in the Syrian War last week.  As of Saturday, threats of missile strikes turned into actual missile strikes.  We’ll see how markets respond on Monday.  For now, we’re still in a downtrend, but price action did improve last week.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-15 – US Stock Market Averages

For now, all the indexes regained their 20-day moving averages, but most are below their 50 day moving averages.  The only exception is the Russell 2000, which begins the week above it’s 50 day moving average.

Price and volume action remains downtrend territory. We didn’t add any distribution days to the count, but trading volume declined as prices rose (not a good sign).

OEW analysis continues to indicate that the current downtrend may have bottomed, but price action remains choppy and hasn’t given the all clear yet.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P starts this week on better footing than last week. The S&P found support at the bottom of the descending triangle pattern, and is now looking to cross the 50-day moving average.

2018-04-15 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-04-15 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The pattern’s floor remains at 2581; the upper trendline now sits at 2725, give or take.  The ADX indicator is basically unchanged from last week; the DI- remains higher than the DI+ (bearish), and the ADX line is flat.

2018-04-15 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-04-15 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Moving to the weekly view, the S&P500 bounced off the price channels lower trendline during the week.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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