Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 1st = Downtrend
- 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
- Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
No April Fools joke here; data privacy continued to roil the markets last week. While there was some positive movement on Monday and Friday, those gains weren’t enough to change the outlook heading into this week.
All the indexes remain below their 20 and 50 day moving averages to start the first week of April. The 200 day moving average provided some technical support, but the indexes have more work to do to recover from recent price declines.
Price and volume action remains downtrend territory as well. Last week’s gains came on lower trading volume, relative to the losing days
No update from OEW this week; the downtrend signal remains in place.
ADX price action moderated a little bit over the past week. The DI- is still higher than DI+ (downtrend), but the ADX isn’t rising as sharply (weakening).
Taking a longer-term look, you can see the S&P500 break the upper channel of a long term trend as we started 2018. This is typically a sell signal, or at the very least an indication that it’s time to take some profits. True to form, the markets sold off, and are now testing the lower channel. On the plus side, the index found support at the lower level 3 times this year, which indicates strong support at those prices. On the downside, last week’s test came on lower than average volume. Think of this as another data point on the current market conditions as you consider your investing strategy.
Best wishes to you on this Easter weekend.
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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:
- 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook