Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 19th = Uptrend
- Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
All the major stock market averages fell below their 20-day moving averages.
- Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
4 of the 5 major stock market averages fell below their 50-day moving averages.
- Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
4 of the 5 major stock market averages remained above their 200-day moving averages.
No change in the outlook for this week, although you could argue that things are mixed. From a moving average perspective, the markets didn’t hold the line last week, and fell back below the short and medium term moving averages. Recent institutional selling remains elevated, but not high enough to derail the uptrend…yet. OEW is still biased towards an uptrend, waiting for market prices to reach key price levels either way.
It’s hard to know what to expect this week, other than Friday’s session should be interesting.
This Thursday, the Fed releases results from the latest bank stress tests. Then, we have the ‘Brexit’ vote (whether Britain stays or leaves the EU). Polls close at 11pm UK time (which is after the US markets close), so any buying or selling will hit the markets Friday. And if that’s not enough, Friday is also the annual rebalancing of the Russell indexes, adding even more trading activity to an already impressive mix.
Moving Average Signals:
- Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
- Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
- Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
- Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week