The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 28th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Uptrend
• On-Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 0.3% last week.  The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.

All three indicators remain bullish.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Sept 28 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed last week, and it was Materials turn ( $XLB ) to lead on the downside.  Adding insult to injury, Materials also fell into bearish bias; Healthcare fell to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 39 of 2025

Low Beta ( $SPLV ) outperformed last week with a gain of 0.8%!  All other sector styles struggled, with High Beta ( $SPHB ) down the most.  Low beta climbed up to neutral bias, while High Dividend ( $SPHD ) stumbled down to neutral.

Sector Style Performance from Week 39 of 2025

Oil ( $USO ) jumped almost 5% last week, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed again.  Those two assets also flipped their biases; Oil to bullish and Bitcoin to bearish.  The dollar showed signs of life last week; something to keep an eye on as a strengthening dollar will impact asset prices.

Asset Class Performance from Week 39 2025

COMMENTARY
U.S. equity indexes came into the week overbought, so last week’s downside volatility wasn’t too surprising.  Market participants quickly bought the dip, with the $SPX finding support at the 21-day moving average.

The third and final update for Q2 GDP came in at +3.8%, a full 50 basis points higher than the second estimate, thanks increases in consumption.

August PCE data was inline with estimates and remains “sticky”.

This week is employment data (JOLTS, NFP), and ISM data. And there’s the possible shutdown of the U.S. government, unless Congress can pass the necessary appropriations bills to keep federal agencies funded…which seems unlikely.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 21st = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Uptrend
• On-Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.2%.  The index sits ~4% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.

We made it through another week without institutional selling, meaning all three indicators are bullish once again.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Sept 21 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
The Technology sector ( $XLK ) outperformed again last week, while Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) was the worst sector again, along with Real Estate ( $XLRE ).  Real Estate also fell back to neutral bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 38 of 2025

High Beta ( $SPHB ) outperformed last week, and Low Beta ( $SPLV ) underperformed and fell to bearish bias.

Sector Style Performance from Week 38 of 2025

Gold ( $GLD ) edged past U.S. equities last week to lead asset class returns, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed.  There were no changes in bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 38 2025

COMMENTARY
In a move that surprised no one, the FOMC cut rates 0.25% in response to weakening labor data.  Market participants were more interested in the future rate path; how much more easing there will be.  And on that front, messages out of the Fed were mixed.  It’s likely we’ll need to see further deterioration in the labor market, and/or reduced inflationary pressure before more cuts are in play.

Fed Chair Powell gets another chance to discuss the plan ( or not ) during a speech on Tuesday.  We’ll also Flash PMI just after market open, so expect volatility until the early afternoon.  We’ll also get the final GDP update for Q2 at 8:30am Wednesday, followed by August PCE at 8:30am on Friday.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 14th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Neutral
• On-Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.6%.  The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

We made it through the week without any institutional selling, and two distribution days fell off the count,  so the total sits at 5; still high, but not as worrisome.  Otherwise, the indicators remain bullish.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Sept 14 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
The Technology sector ( $XLC ) outperformed last week, while Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) was the worst sector.  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) “unimproved” from last week’s improvement, dropping back to Bearish bias, while Utilities ( $XLU ) returned to bullish.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 37 of 2025

The Momentum style ( $MTUM ) beat all comers last week, while Mid-Cap Value  ( $IJJ ) underperformed.

Sector Style Performance from Week 37 of 2025

Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) returned got back in the win column last week, and returned to bullish bias.  The U.S. dollar ( $DXY ) underperformed.

Asset Class Performance from Week 37 2025

COMMENTARY
The NFP annual revision lowered 2024 jobs data by 911,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 818,000 revision.  It was the large revision in over 20 years, and suggests the labor market has been weaker than previously thought.  The revision gives the FOMC the needed rationale to begin cutting interest rates, although it also increases the political pressure to do more.

Inflation data was mixed, with producer prices rising more slowly than consumer prices.  Headline and Core PPI showed a decline in prices during August, even after downward revisions to July figures.

Headline CPI showed modest increases in headline data, while core remained flat at 3.1%.

We’ve got the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday this week, with many expecting a rate cut given weaker employment data (the bond market included).  Chairman Powell “pivoted” from inflation to labor last year, so not cutting would be more surprising at this point.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 7th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Neutral
• On-Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities, despite last week’s weak labor data.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.3%.  The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~9% above the 200-day moving average.

The ADX Directional Indicators briefly crossed over after the holiday weekend, but immediately reversed back to bullish; not surprising given the main reading is approaching 20.  Three distribution days fell off the count, but two were added, so the total remains at seven (>5 = high). Price remains above key moving averages, so the signal stays at neutral.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Sept 07 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Communications ( $XLC ) outperformed last week, while Energy ( $XLE ) gave back some recent gains.  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) improved from Bearish to Bullish after last week’s drop, and Utilities ( $XLE ) fell is testing its bias level.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 36 of 2025

Small cap value ( $IWN ) outperformed all other styles for a fourth week in a row; High Beta ( $SPHB) underperformed.  Low Beta ( $SPLV ) is testing a bias level, moving from bullish the neutral.

Sector Style Performance from Week 36 of 2025

Gold ( $GLD ) led assets to the upside for a second week, while Oil ( $USO ) was the worst performer.  No changes in bias to start the week.

Asset Class Performance from Week 36 2025

COMMENTARY
ISM Services and Manufacturing PMI were higher in August, though Manufacturing remains contractionary.

JOLTs ( July ) and Non-farm payrolls ( August ) show some weakness in the labor market, with both datasets coming in lower than expected.  Given the recent back and forth about the validity of U.S. government statistics, it’s hard to get too excited about the numbers.  That said, markets reacted as though the Federal Reserve got the green light to cut interest rates this month.

This Tuesday, the annual revision of NFP data is released, with expectations for a decrease of 818k jobs, likely increasing the pressure to ease.  Then August PPI and CPI will hit the wires.  Expect some volatile opening moves this week!

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of August 31st = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Neutral
• On-Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 0.1%.  The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~8% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Aug 31 2025

On-balance is back in bullish territory, but also shows a bearish divergence since the end of July.  The ADX has also faded over that period of time, suggesting the current rally is losing some steam.  The market got a reprieve from institutional selling last week, and distribution days will start falling off the count through the week.

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Energy ( $XLE ) led sectors higher again last week; Utilities and Consumer Staples ( $XLU & $XLP ) were the worst performers.  Staples also dropped to bearish bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 35 of 2025

Small cap value ( $IWN ) outperformed for a third week, but the overall gains were small.  Low Beta ( $SPLV ) was the laggard.  No changes in bias; all styles are bullish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 35 of 2025

Gold ( $GLD ) led assets to the upside, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) was the worst performer for the second week in a row.  Adding insult to injury, Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) starts September with a bearish bias.  The US Dollar ( $DXY ) is back to neutral.

Asset Class Performance from Week 35 2025

COMMENTARY
Nvidia ($NVDA) reported better than expected results last week, but the stock price took a small hit because analysts were expecting higher data center revenues ($41.1b vs $41.3b).  Guidance for next quarter was also lower than expected, largely because they’re not including sales to China.  Since the stock accounts for 8% of the S&P500, it’s price has an oversized impact on the index.

The second estimate of Q2 GDP came in higher than the first, from 3% to 3.3%, mainly due to upward revisions to investments and consumer spending data.

Headline PCE  data for July was inline with estimates, while Core was slightly higher.  For the first time in many months, there were no revisions to prior data!

This week, U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day.  Later in the week, we’ll get the latest PMI data, as well as JOLTs and NFP.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of August 24th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Neutral
• On-Balance Volume: Neutral

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities, though institutional selling increased again.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.3%.  The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~9% above the 200-day moving average.

The market encountered more distribution days last week, bringing the total to 7.  Price remains above the 50-day, and bounced on Friday, so the signal remains neutral for now.  On-balance volume also eased the past few weeks and is now resting on its moving average.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Aug 24 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Energy ( $XLE ) led sectors higher, while Technology was underperformed ( $XLK ).  Energy and Real Estate ( $XLE & $XLRE ) regained bullish bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 34 of 2025

Small cap value ( $IWN ) outperformed for a second straight week, while Large Cap Growth was the laggard ( $OEF ).  No changes in bias; all styles are bullish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 34 of 2025

Oil ( $USO ) led assets higher and Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) underperformed.  Gold ( $GLD ) is back to bullish bias after some recent weakness.

Asset Class Performance from Week 34 2025

COMMENTARY
After 4 straight days of selling in U.S. equity indexes, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell came to the rescue on Friday.  During his remarks from Jackson Hole, signaled a potential shift in the interest rate discussion. In particular, most people focused on the following statement:

“…with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy
stance.”

Those words were interpreted as an interest rate cut is coming in September.  Some are going further, using what Powell didn’t say as an indicator the Fed has stopped pursuing the 2% inflation target as a near-term goal, and will focus policy on labor and economic growth.  Time will tell.  Prior to the next FOMC meeting, there’s another round of inflation data ( PCE, CPI, and PPI ), as well as the August non-farm payrolls data.

If/when rates are lowered, expect to see a reduction in your short-term interest payments ( savings accounts, interest-bearing checking accounts, money markets, short-term bonds, etc. ).

A quick note about the signals presented above, specifically the institutional selling.  Given the relative weighting of technology stocks ( e.g. Mag 7 ), the index can suffer from market-cap distortions, where downside moves are caused by just a few stocks.  This can make the overall market drop, while a majority of tickers are breakeven or higher.

The tables above show that Technology/Communications sectors and Mega/Large Cap growth styles underperformed last week, and likely drove a lot of the action at an index level.  Recent underperformers and/or bias tests have bounced back as well, meaning the the high volume likely reflects end of summer asset reallocation, rather than outright selling of equities ( which we’ve discussed over the past few weeks as a wise move for your holdings as well ).

This week, we get an updated Q2 GDP figure Thursday and the aforementioned PCE reading for July on Friday. All of which could be overshadowed by Nvidia earnings Wednesday after market close.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of August 17th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Neutral
• On-Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend for U.S. equities, though institutional selling increased again.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9%.  The index sits ~4% above the 50-day moving average and ~9% above the 200-day moving average.

The market added 2 more distribution days last week, bringing the total to 6 (which is elevated) and dropping the Institutional Activity signal to neutral.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Aug 17 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Health care ( $XLV ) led sectors higher, while Utilities and Consumer Staples ( $XLU & $XLP ) underperformed.  Materials and Healthcare ( $XLB & $XLV ) regained bullish bias and Energy ( $XLE ) rose to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 33 of 2025

Small cap value ( $IWN ) outperformed the other styles, while Momentum and Low Beta ( $MTUM & $SPLV ) came away with small losses.

Sector Style Performance from Week 33 of 2025

Despite a choppy week, U.S. equities led assets higher, and Gold ( $GLD ) underperformed.  Gold is also testing bias levels, while the U.S. dollar fell back to bearish bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 33 2025

COMMENTARY
Last week’s inflation data surprised too the upside; not good for those with hopes of large interest rate cuts.

Headline CPI was the “best” reading, showing now change in year over year readings.  Core CPI increased in July, and that’s on top of an upward revision to June data ( from 2.8% to 2.9% ).

Headline and Core PPI showed sharper increases in inflation readings.  The headline data increased to 3.3%, on top of an upward revision to June data ( from 2.3% to 2.4% ).  Core was the worst, jumping more 1%.

Retail sales showed an increase of 3.9% year over year, down from June;s 4.4%.

And finally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey dropped to 58.6, well below market expectations of 62, due to inflation concerns and higher prices for durable goods ( e.g. furniture, appliances, etc. ).

Data releases this week relate to housing, though all eyes and ears will be on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual symposium. Specifically, talking heads will try to assess any changes in the “tone” of Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.

The increase in institutional selling activity ( noted above ) coincides with other traditional technical measures showing an overbought market with bearish divergences developing (e.g. MACD, RSI, etc.).  While it’s not time to panic, it is time to harvest some of those summer gains.

Asset class and sector bias has been volatile as of late, which aligns with the historical trend for August.  Not quite outright rotation, but there was definitely some flow shifts behind the scenes.  With seasonally weak September right around the corner, take a look at those allocations and make sure they still make sense.  Consider adding to positions that are still bullish bias, but oversold.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.