The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 2nd = Downtrend

• • • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Signals: Mixed
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend, even though last week’s price moves were impressive (i.e. another signal needs to indicate an uptrend before the overall outlook changes).

The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 3.5% for the week, rallying past the 50-day moving average, and breaking the trend of lower highs since early February.  Trading volume fell to below average levels.  The index closed out the first quarter up 7%, with that entire gain coming within the past 3 weeks.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of April 04 2023

The ADX directional indicators flipped to bullish on Wednesday, though the overall trend remains weak with reading near 12.

Price/volume moved to mixed on Wednesday; price closed above the 50-day moving average, but trading volume was below average.  Thursday and Friday’s price gains also occurred on low volume, indicating those moves weren’t supported by institutional buying. Look for a gain of 1.5% or more on above average trade volume to signal a confirmation of an uptrend.

Elliott Wave remains mixed, with 3765 and 4196 still the proverbial lines in the sand.  Last week’s analysis bore out, with the SPX rising towards 4200. This week, the MACD remains bullish but the RSI(5) is overbought.  This suggests a drop in the days ahead; probably back to the 4000 level. Updates to the monthly charts are at the end of the post.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of April 04 2023 – Bearish View

In the bearish count, the index closed within the typical completion zone (61.8%+) for a second and suggests March’s bear market rally is nearly complete.

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of April 04 2023 – Bullish View

The bullish wave count suggests that a move to the downside will be short-lived.

COMMENTARY
Last week’s data releases maintained the trend of “mixed bag” reports; overall unemployment remains low, while inflation continues to rise, albeit not as much verses the prior month / year.

Short trading week ahead, with U.S. stock markets closed for Good Friday on the 7th.  Earnings season kicks off the following week, with reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C).

With mixed signals, mixed bag datasets, and corporate quite periods ahead of earnings, capital flows (i.e. momentum) will be the name of the game.  So watch out for reversals and whipsaws over the next two weeks.

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Long-term Elliott Wave Count Updates

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2023 – Bearish View

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for March 2023 – Bullish View

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 26th = Downtrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Signals: Downtrend
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

ANALYSIS
The start market outlook remains in a downtrend heading into the final week of March.

The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 1.4% last week, same as the week prior, with prices bouncing between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Trading volume receded to average levels.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of March 26 2023

No change in the ADX or price/volume signals this week.  Elliott Wave remains mixed; key levels are 3765 and 4196.

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 26 2023 – Bearish Count

The bearish wave count shows a completed Minor 1.  The ongoing Minor 2 likely takes the SPX back toward 4196.

The bullish wave count shows a completed Minor 2.  At this point, the Minor 3 pattern isn’t very clear, thanks to all overlapping highs and lows in the price action.

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 26 2023 – Bullish Count

This week’s MACD cross-over confirmed upward price momentum, but didn’t leave much of a buffer. The neutral reading from the RSI(5) doesn’t provide much insight, direction-wise, either.

COMMENTARY
You checked your account balances and position sizes made sure they’re all good, yes?

After all the will they, won’t they, UBS “acquired” Credit Suisse after the Swiss government engineered the transaction.  Now it’s Deutsche Bank’s turn to twist in the wind, only this time it’s not a bank run.  Instead, the cost of credit default swaps (i.e. CDS) drove stock price volatility. CDS’s insure bondholders against the bank defaulting on its debt.

Across the pond, the U.S. Federal Reserve increased rates by 0.25% and acknowledged that tighter credit conditions will have a similar impact as a rate hike.  It’s likely that “rate hikes” are largely behind us now, in which case the U.S. enters the “for longer” part of the Fed’s “higher for longer” message.

The next Fed meeting is in May…ample time for financial media to make their case for future Fed policy.  While wading your way through it all, remember that two week ago, a 0.5% rate hike was certain.  One week ago, a pause (at least) was certain.  Neither were true.

And we’re about to enter the blackout period for corporate buybacks (the quiet period ahead of the next earnings season), so the market will need to find fuel from other areas.

Data releases this week include inventories (Tuesday), housing (Tuesday & Wednesday), and PCE data (Friday).

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 19th = Downtrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Signals: Downtrend
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

ANALYSIS
No change in the stock market outlook; a downtrend remains in place.

The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 1.4% last week.  The index found support near the trendline of lower-highs from November-December, and currently sits just below the 200-day moving average after briefly reclaiming that level.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of March 19 2023

The ADX and price volume remain bearish.  The index experienced more institutional selling, with Friday’s volume skewed by options expiration and index rebalancing.

Elliott Wave remains mixed; key levels are 3765 and 4196.

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 19 2023 – Bullish count

COMMENTARY
This week was a long month.  Based on all the hyperventilating, you’d expect the U.S. stock market to have crashed.  Not so.  Instead, the S&P 500 was up modestly for the week.  The NASDAQ was up 4.4%!  Liquidity issues and bank failures mean buy tech stocks.  Who knew?

After mentioning further surprises in the last post, the banking sector delivered with First Republic Bank ($FRC) stepping into the spotlight.  Credit Suisse ($CS) made a push late in the week, but that bank has struggled for a while now (credit issues as far back as October 2), so it’s not really a surprise.  As of Sunday, UBS will won’t will be acquiring them.

Lost in the hyperventilating were February consumer price index and producer price index data.

February CPI data was inline with estimates and declined from January.

• CPI
  • +6.0% vs. +6.0% est. (y/y),
  • (0.4%) from January’s +6.4% reading
• Core CPI
  • +5.5% vs. +5.5% est.
  • (0.1%) from January’s +5.6% reading

February PPI data was lower than estimates and declined from January.

• PPI
  • +4.6% vs. +5.4% est (y/y)
  • (1.1%) from January’s revised 5.7% reading
• Core PPI
  • +4.4% vs +5.2% est (y/y)
  • (0.6%) from January’s revised 5.0% reading

This week, all eyes are on U.S. interest rates, with the Fed’s latest policy hitting the wires Wednesday.  Last week, the ECB raised rates 0.5%, in spite of any potential liquidity issues, with some pundits calling the move a trial balloon for the Fed.

So…what to do.

First, breathe.

Second, remember rule #1: No one cares more about your money than you.  Not Jim Cramer, not CNBC, not the people railing on Facebook, or the sensational “sky is falling” tweets rising to the top of Twitter’s new algos.

Third, remember rule #2: Always protect against losses.  If you don’t keep the money you have already, compounding is impossible.  One way to do that is only trade when the probability of success is in your favor.  And right now, that’s not the case for most of us.

More specifically to the weekend outlook, the SPX at a point where none of the signals are convincing in either direction.  The outlook shows a downtrend in place.  The SPX sits on the 200-day moving average and a trendline of higher lows.  For every bearish signal, you can find a bullish counterpoint.

Finally, review your personal finances.  Check your balance sheet and make sure your account sizes are within the FDIC / SIPC limits. If not, take action!  Check your investment portfolios and make sure your positions are sized appropriately (i.e. one investment can’t destroy the value of your nest egg).  If not, take action!  For example, you could reduce the size of each position so the maximum loss in any single investment is less than 2% of the total portfolio.

Markets are complex systems.  Complex systems are difficult to model due to the interactions between their parts, the system as a whole, and the environment. These interactions create nonlinearity, emergent properties, feedback loops, etc…all of which reduce or remove your edge.

There are a lot of moving parts in the global financial system right now…everything, everywhere, all at once, if you will. No one knows what Powell will do this week, let alone how market prices respond, so we’ve got no edge.  Capital preservation is best choice until our edge returns.

Remember, if you think you know what’s going on right now, you’re not paying attention.

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 12th = Downtrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Signals: Downtrend
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook dropped into a downtrend to start the week, as a high profile bank closure rocked the financial sector.  Expect more volatility this week.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of March 12 2023

The S&P500 ($SPX) fell 4.5% last week. The index ran into resistance at the trendline of “lower highs” on Monday, and found support at the trendline of “higher lows” on Friday.

The ADX moved to bearish on Thursday, as did the price and volume signal. During that session, the index sliced through the 50 and 200 day moving averages on higher than average trading volume.

Elliott Wave remains mixed, although probabilities now favor the bearish count.  No change in key levels from last week (3765 and 4196).

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 12 2023 – Bearish Count

Looking at the bearish count, the Minor 2 correction (i.e. rally) ended on Monday, after retracing a bit more than 50% of Minor 1. The Minute waves received a slight adjustment to match prior corrective waves (i.e. Minor 2 & 4 had b-waves that undercut the end of impulse Waves 1 & 3)

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 12 2023 – Bullish Count

Last week’s sell-off didn’t help the bullish viewpoint, which now requires a very rare pattern: the ending-expanding diagonal. It’s so rare, some practitioners don’t believe it exists! Even so, the SPX sits at the 78.6% retracement of the Minor 1 wave, which would be a good spot for a bullish rally to find support. Otherwise, the 3765 low is the last line of defense.

COMMENTARY
No one expects the inquisition!  Except the Spanish, of course.  That seems to be the case in the markets as well, with a seemingly no one expecting liquidity issues, except the people watching liquidity.

For those that don’t know, issues in the financial sector sparked last week’s sell-off. There are A LOT of passionate “why”, “how”, and “what now” opinions on social media.  A lot.  Some are well reasoned…others not so much.  I’ll try my best to summarize:

First, and less widely reported, Silvergate Bank ($SI) entered voluntary liquidation.  This announcement came after inquiries from bank regulators and the Department of Justice on their role in the FTX blow-up.  The company also delayed filing its annual 10-K report due to questions from its independent auditors and accounting firm over its figures.  Silvergate was not on the FDIC’s “failed bank” list, because it voluntarily liquidated in order to make full repayment of all deposits, rather than going into an FDIC receivership.

On the other hand, Silicon Valley Bank ($SIVB) began experiencing liquidity issues on Wednesday, and by Friday was in receivership, meaning the company couldn’t meet financial obligations (i.e. insolvent) and is now being wound down by the FDIC.

A majority of SIVB’s clients are start-ups and local businesses, not personal checking/savings accounts.  These businesses used the bank for things like payroll accounts, expense accounts, etc.; accounts that are much larger than FDIC insurance levels, by the way.  Those companies are impacted by higher costs and lower profit margins just like everyone else, resulting in more withdrawals than deposits.  The bank reached a tipping point on Thursday, after a small number of large withdrawals in a matter of hours.  Even after they sold a substantial amount of assets, they couldn’t recover.

Going forward, the FDIC will make SIVBs depositors whole within the limits of program.  That’s it’s reason for being.  The amounts over and above FDIC levels are uninsured and a point of contention. As stated by Ellen Chang of TheStreet:

“Uninsured depositors will receive a receivership certificate for the remaining amount of their uninsured funds,” the agency said. “As the FDIC sells the assets of Silicon Valley Bank, future dividend payments may be made to uninsured depositors.”

However the FDIC resolves those excess amounts, there’s a high probability of financial stress and a scramble for cash over the next few days (like 2008), in a very small section of the economy (not like 2008).

Does all that mean there won’t be another “surprise” corporate bankruptcy, credit event, or bank failure going forward?  No!  Those events happen in rate hiking cycles and/or recessions, and the U.S. economy is about to experience both at the same time, if we’re not there already. Bed Bath and Beyond ($BBBY) is already on the verge of bankruptcy and winding down operations to conserve cash.

It DOES mean you have a chance to prepare yourself and your portfolio by re-evaluating risk/reward.  For example, taking on more volatility for higher returns (i.e. “reaching for yield”) is higher risk now that money market funds and U.S. treasuries providing more than 4% yield.  Or you can make sure that all your accounts are within FDIC or SIPC limits (not advice, just for discussion).

Back to our regularly scheduled programming, the economic data released last week was mixed.  January job openings (JOLTS) fell slightly compared to December, but were still better than expected.  A similar story for the Non-Farm Payroll data released on Friday; February figures were higher than expected, but unemployment rose slightly (0.2%) and wages increased less than expected.

This week’s economic data includes the February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday.

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 5th = Uptrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues in an uptrend to start the month of March, as a majority of indicators flipped back to to bullish on Friday.  Mixed economic data and negative profit margins don’t inspire much confidence either.  So if you decide to deploy your capital, do so with caution.

The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 1.9% for the week, bouncing off the 200-day moving average on Thursday and reclaiming the 50-day moving average on Friday.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of March 05 2023

The ADX directional indicators flipped back to an uptrend Friday, after whipsawing twice last week.  The indicator itself declined since first turning bearish 2 weeks ago, suggesting weakening price trends.

The price & volume signal switched back to an uptrend on Friday as well, as the SPX climbed back above the 50-day. The low level of trading volume accompanying the moves on Thursday and Friday is concerning, suggesting that institutional buying was not the reason for the jump higher.

Although the market reversed higher, as expected by the Elliott Wave analysis last week, the signal remains mixed; no change in key levels from last week (3765 and 4196).

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 05 2023 – Bearish Count

Based on the price action last week, the subdividing count took over for the diagonal count, with a completed Minor 1.  A Minor 2 can be expected take the SPX back towards the February high (4196) in 3 waves.

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 05 2023 – Bullish Count

After reviewing the long term counts (see updates below), the short-term waves for the bullish count needed to be promoted one level higher, going back to October, in order to stay synchronized. So Minute [ii] Minor 2 completed at the 61.8% retracement level on Thursday. A typical 3rd wave is 1.618 times the size of the 1st wave, putting an initial Minute [iii] Minor 3 target at 4,626.

COMMENTARY
Economic data releases were basically flat (i.e. little to no change), yielding no clear direction for the state of the economy.  Of course, traditional financial media had not problem spinning each release in the direction they’re currently favoring, which doesn’t help your decision making.

As of Friday, most of the S&P500 companies have reported earnings:  revenue/sales are up 5.6% year over year, while earnings are down 2.9% (per Bloomberg).

As discussed in prior blog posts, sustained inflation would eventually create negative profit margins when a company’s costs rose faster than their prices. During 2022, profit margins declined y/y, but remained positive; companies offset higher costs of doing business with higher prices on goods and services.

Now we look to for inflation to impact the revenue/sales side of the equation, when customers can no longer afford the higher prices and/or cut back on spending all together.

This week, potential market moving events center on employment:  job openings (JOLTS) on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls (NFP) / unemployment data on Friday.

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Long-Term Elliott Wave Updates for March

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 05 2023 – Primary Y (Bearish)

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of March 05 2023 – Primary 1 (Bullish)

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 26th = Uptrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Signals: Mixed
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook still shows an uptrend, but signal strength waned over the past week.  Since 2 of the 3 signals showing “mixed”, there’s no confirmation of a trend change yet, so the existing trend stays in place.

The S&P500 ($SPX) fell 2.7%, with most of the damage done on Tuesday.  With the index unable to maintain 4080, the 50-day moving average provided support on Wednesday and Thursday, with help from the 200 day moving average on Friday.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of February 26 2023

The ADX flipped to a bearish reading on Tuesday’s down draft, while price/volume shifted to mixed.  Tuesday’s trading volume was slightly below the prior session, so it isn’t technically a distribution day.  That said, the session wasn’t bullish either.  With price sitting below the 50-day the signal shifts to mixed, rather than a downtrend, thanks to the lack of distribution days.

Elliott Wave remains mixed; no change in key levels from last week (3765 and 4196/4325).

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of February 26 2023

The bearish diagonal count from last week was revised one level higher, with the market in the Minute [v] wave of Minor 1.  It’s also possible that the Minute [iii] subdivided, which would put the market in Minutte [v] .   This count shows a bounce to 4088 (the Minutte [i] low) is likely, before the market heads lower.

The RSI divergence correlates to completed 5th waves, so the Minor 1 count is most likely. For both bearish counts, 4196 is the max for Minor 2.

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of February 26 2023

For the bullish count, the Minute [ii] wave reached typical Fibonacci levels. As mentioned above, an RSI divergence correlates to completed 5th waves, so a Minute [3] rally could start at any time.

In either case, remember that corrective waves are typically large and short, in terms of price movement and timeframe.  So if you’re bearish, the next wave (Minor 2) will move like the Minor 2 last September.  If you’re bullish, the Minute [iii] will move like the Minute [iii] from late October-early November.

COMMENTARY
The high level economic data released last week was bearish, showing lower GDP growth and higher inflation.

Revised Q4 GDP came out on Thursday, lowering data by 0.2% (+2.7% versus the initial estimate of +2.9%, on an annualized).  On a year over year basis, Q4 GDP growth was revised lower as well (from 1.0% to 0.9%).

January PCE data was higher than expected (hawkish), with headline data increasing 5.4% year over year vs. expectations of 5%.  Core figures came in at 4.7% y/y vs 4.3% expected.

Adding to last week’s releases, there’s a bunch of economic data coming out this week, including durable goods, pending home sales and price indexes, Consumer Confidence, ISM manufacturing and services data to name a few.  More that enough to muddy the waters even more.

More earnings on the way:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fpwe9mCXEAEZxnn?format=jpg&name=large”

Best To Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 19th = Uptrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Signals: Uptrend
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend and appeared to find technical support at the 4080 level during Friday’s session.

For the week, the S&P500 ($SPX) fell 0.3%, but remains above the 50 and 200 day moving averages.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of February 19 2023

As mentioned last week, the 4080 level provided a battleground for closing prices, going all the way back to August of 2022.  After breaking above that level early this month, it now serves as a support level in technical analysis terms.

The ADX and price/volume action remains bullish, with only a couple of distribution days in the past 5 weeks.

Elliott Wave remains mixed. The bullish count aligns with the market outlook signals (ADX/Price Volume), and the bearish count aligns with macroeconomic data. No change in key levels from last week (3765 and 4196/4325).

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of February 19 2023 – Bullish Count

The bullish count puts the index in a corrective Minute [ii] wave. Typical retracement would be between 38.2% and 61.8% of Minute [i] (~4030 & ~3930 respectively), but could drop all the way to 3764 (100% retracement).

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of February 19 2023 – Bearish Count

The bearish count shows an expanding leading diagonal pattern for Minute [i], which suggests a test of the 4000 level next week (roughly the 50-day moving average).  A Minute [ii] wave would then bring the index back towards recent highs (~4196), before entering Minute [iii] and heading lower.

COMMENTARY
January CPI data was higher than expected. I assumed stocks would sell off, but prices barely budged. Instead, it was Thursday’s higher than expected PPI data for January that that soured the mood of investors.  That, combined with 0DTE trading and hawkish commentary from Fed governors sent the stock market lower.

Speaking of other “surprises”:  almost 85% of the S&P 500 has reported earnings for Q4.  Many financial media sources point out that earnings have surprised to the upside verses expectations and aren’t as bad as feared, causing stocks to rally year to date.

Do yourself a favor:  look beyond the headline numbers, which are “adjusted” earnings.  I mean, what would your financial situation look like if you could “adjust” away all your major expenses each year?  GAAP earnings are the version used for Q/Q and Y/Y comparisons, as well as any fundamental analysis.  And GAAP earnings are down 29% year-over-year, and it’s the 3rd straight quarter of negative YoY growth!

Looking ahead, a short week of trading; U.S. markets are closed on Monday for President’s Day. The BEA updates Q4 GDP on Thursday, following by PCE data on Friday.Q4 earnings reports continue to roll in:

https://twitter.com/eWhispers/status/1626939580313387009

Best To Your Week!

P.S.  Here’s a potential contrarian and totally unofficial indicator for you: blog traffic. Typically, site traffic peaks when people are extremely bearish.  Right now, traffic is barely a trickle, with some days registering zero activity, which is indicative of extreme bullishness.

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.