Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 1st = Downtrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
    • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
After a brutal sell-off, the stock market outlook starts this week in a downtrend. The outlook switched to a downtrend on Monday after the S&P opened below it’s 50-day moving average.

The S&P currently sits below the 200-day moving average, and broke all the trendlines we had been following. Price appears to have found support at the October low. That’s a 100% retracement of the 2019 Q4 advanced, meaning the market gave back all that it gained since October of last year.

Don’t panic; prepare. Jim Cramer likened the current situation (healthcare-wise) to the time before measles had a vaccine. I think that’s a good comparison. They’ll be some bumps along the way, but we’ll get through it.

More commentary after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Week of March 01 2020

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Don’t single source your news!

As of 12:40, the U.S. stock markets are down more than 3.0%. The CDC has confirmed 53 cases of the coronavirus in the U.S.  Here is a above-the-fold screenshot from the CNN homepage:

CNN Homepage

There is one mention of the Coronavirus, and it’s in the live updates menu…just as many as the “french fry sandwich”.  And there’s nothing about the stock markets.

The Weinstein case is a big deal, but is an analysis of Bernie’s 60 minutes answer really so important that it needs to be front and center?  Really?  It seems like there are more pressing matters to discuss.

To be fair, this page will always be a US-centric view thanks to my IP address. So I checked the “World” page.

CNN World Homepage

Whether or not you “like” CNN is irrelevant; CNN isn’t the issue.  It’s one of many media platforms that people use.  And they all need clicks and eyeballs just like every other website, and they all can be just as narrowly focused.  If you didn’t look elsewhere today, you’d never know the market was selling off, or that the coronavirus continues to spread but the situation in Wuhan is stabilizing.  On the other hand, there are sites that think the world is coming to an end and we should all be in our bunkers.

Check out Reuters:

Reuters Homepage

Admittedly, Reuters is business focused.  But it’s also more balanced in terms of “important” news of the day.

I always preach that you can’t predict, but you can prepare.  Being prepared requires data, and that means you need to do your own research from multiple sources.  Otherwise, you’re subject to what a small group tells you is important, not necessarily what is important to/for you!

 

 

 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 23rd = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
    • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The stock market outlook starts this week in an uptrend. The ADX directional indicators turned bearish on Friday, but price/volume remains mixed and OEW charts still show an uptrend.

More commentary after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Week of Week of February 23 2020

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 16th = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
    • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The stock market outlook starts this week in an uptrend. The ADX directional indicators remain bullish, price/volume remains mixed, and OEW is switched back to an uptrend early last week, per their charts on stockchart.com.

More commentary after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Week of Week of February 16 2020

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 9th = Downtrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
    • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend this week because we don’t have confirmation from two signals yet. The ADX directional indicators flipped back to an uptrend. The price and volume indicator remains mixed due to elevated distribution days. OEW appears to show a subdividing downtrend, so that remains negative for now. If price passes 3350 or finds support at 3300, I expect this signal to switch.

More commentary after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Week of Week of February 09 2020

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 2nd = Downtrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
    • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
The stock market outlook switched over to a downtrend early last week, as markets reacted to uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.

While the pandemic was unexpected, the reaction by financial markets wasn’t. Uncertainty creates a fear of losing money, which drives investors to reduce their risk of loss.

What can you do? Adjust.

A lot more commentary after the jump…
Stock Market Outlook – Week of Week of February 02 2020

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Annual Review of the Stock Market Outlook – 2019 Edition

It is time! Time for the annual review of the Stock Market Outlook’s performance, 2019 edition.

With such a great year in the books for the $SPX, I expected to see some money left on the table, so to speak. It’s the “cost” of avoiding really bad downtrends.

Stock Market Outlook Signals for 2019

So how did we do? Charts, tables, graphs, and analysis after the jump…

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