Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 28th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Stocks extended their “spring break”, spending a second week in a row moving sideways.  This is essentially what the ADX indicator has been signaling as well (i.e. weak or flat trend). So no change in the overall signal this week, with 2 out of 3 signals showing an uptrend.

No change in the moving average signal; all the major indexes are above their 20 and 50-day moving averages.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-05-28 – US Stock Market Averages

Trading volume continues to be below average, but we did see some accumulation last week…another positive sign.

Objective Elliott Wave’s uptrend remains in place (Tony has been MIA due to medical issues, but always pulls through).

From a long term perspective, the uptrend since our last correction remains in play (price lows in February and November 2016).

2018-05-28 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-05-28 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

On a daily view (shorter-term), the ADX weakened further over the past 5 trading sessions, and starts this week around 12. The DI+ and DI- are basically equal. So basically no trend to speak of…a traders market, if you will. During times like this, it’s best to rely on momentum indicators for your technical signals.

2018-05-28 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-05-28 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The U.S. markets are closed tomorrow, in observance of Memorial Day, our time to remember the people who died while serving in our country in the armed forces.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 21st= Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Stocks took a bit of a breather last week, so no change in the outlook to start this week. 2 out of 3 signals continue show an uptrend.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-05-21 – US Stock Market Averages

All the major indexes remained above their 20 and 50-day moving averages, leaving the moving average signal in an uptrend.

Trading volume continues to be the biggest weakness for the market since January. The S&P picked up 3 distribution days last week, elevating the count to 7; the last 10 trading sessions the S&P closed lower resulted in distribution days. On the positive side, 3 distribution days will come off the count next week. And I witnessed more break-outs last week, and a few even had decent trading volume!

OEW uptrend remains in place.

I’m still waiting to see if we can move past last Monday’s high, or if that becomes a point of resistance for a new descending triangle.

2018-05-21 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-05-21 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

As far as the ADX is concerned, the DI+ remains higher than the DI- (barely), so it does signal an uptrend. But a falling ADX, combined with a low value (<20) suggests a really weak trend. Until the ADXv value can climb back above 20, sideways price action is likely. At least the latest rally hasn't sold off with the same volatility we saw during the last few attempts (February, March, and April).

2018-05-21 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

The lower bound of the long term price channel currently sits around 2660, which is above the 200-day moving average, but not the 50-day.  And in a first for 2018, we had a down week without higher trading volume; another positive sign for this fledgling uptrend.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 13th = Uptrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
As expected, we didn’t wait long for a trend change.  2 out of three signals flipped last week, so we start the week of May 13th in an uptrend.

With the Russell 2000 leading the way, all the major price indexes are above their 20 and 50-day moving average, which puts this signal back in the green, so to speak.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-05-14 – US Stock Market Averages

Last week’s rally above the 50-day moving average wasn’t accompanied by higher trading volumes, which doesn’t instill a lot of confidence in the current rally.  I expect a retest of the 50-day before we really get going, if we really get going, so this indicator remains mixed.

OEW flipped to an uptrend last week.

The descending triangle pattern I’ve been tracking ended last week, as prices crossed the upper trendline.   Support held at the 200 day and at the 2,581 price level. The ADX indicator switched over to the bullish side, though it shows a weakening trend (aligns with the falling trading volumes as we rallied above the 50-day moving average).

2018-05-14 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-05-14 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

If past is precedence, we’ll have to wait another week before learning whether this rally will hold; we could even see a new descending triangle form.  Take a look at the March timeframe in the chart below.  We broke above an upper trendline, and within 7 trading days the S&P was looking for support.  The breakout was on lower trading volume, and the ADX showed a weakening trend (similar to the current breakout). Hopefully, we’ll see a confirmation soon (late December), rather than a head-fake (mid-March).

2018-05-14 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-05-14 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

The lower bound of the long term price channel continues to hold, and the S&P broke through the downward sloping trendline limiting advances since March.  A solid earnings season could only be held back for so long.  However, even with that fundamental strength, we haven’t seen higher trading volume for positive weekly closes since January (!).

My watch list isn’t exactly setting the world on fire at the moment.  Growth stocks are breaking out, but those breakouts leave a lot to be desired.  Income plays have and continue to be under pressure from Fed interest rate hikes.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 6th = Downtrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Mixed
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
Market prices made some progress last week, finding support near the 200-day moving average.  But the downtrend is still hanging on by a few points. Basically, we’re looking for a weekly close above the 50-day or below the 200-day to confirm which of the technical patterns we’ve been following will win out (mid-term descending triangle or long-term price channel). Since the gap between those two price levels is ~2.5%, we shouldn’t have to wait much longer.

The Nasdaq joins the Russell 2000 above the 50-day moving average, thanks to Friday’s rally.  The other indexes sit just below that level, so it won’t take to change this signal to an uptrend.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-05-07 – US Stock Market Averages

While Thursday’s bounce came with higher trading volume (good), Friday’s rally to the 50-day had lower trading volume (bad). So price / volume action remains mixed.  Growth stocks with solid fundamentals have responded positively to earnings strength; what’s not clear is whether those gains will hold (as mentioned last week).

OEW maintains a medium term downtrend, but expects that trend to end soon, and for markets to take another run at all time highs.

The descending triangle pattern remains intact, and continues to narrow, with an upper trendline sitting at ~2,675 (almost the same as the 50-day moving average). The floor remains at 2,581. The ADX indicator is rising ever so slightly, but remains bearish.

2018-05-07 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-05-07 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The longer term price channel has seen a lot of action recently, with prices bouncing off that level for the second straight week and closing near the highs. On the downside, the last two weeks have seen lower closing prices on above average volume.  Today, the lower bound is roughly the same as the 200-day moving average.

2018-05-07 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-05-07 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

 


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 29th = Downtrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
Market prices didn’t make much progress last week, so the environment remains bearish for new positions (i.e. downtrend).

Price Charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-29 – US Stock Market Averages

Just like last week, only the Russell 2000 is above the 50-day moving average.

Price and volume action remains mixed.  Growth stocks are having a hard time staying above technical resistance levels (i.e. buy points in price patterns such as flat bases), even though Q1 earnings have been strong.

OEW continues to show a medium term downtrend. The long-term bull market remains in place, with the following caveat:

We see no reason to be concerned unless the SPX loses 2500.

Coincidentally, that’s a handful of points below the floor of the descending triangle pattern we’ve been tracking recently. The upper trendline now rests at ~2,680; the floor remains at 2,581. The ADX indicator hasn’t changed much in April (still bearish), as the S&P works its way through the descending triangle price pattern.

2018-04-29 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-04-29 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The longer term price channel also remains intact, as we saw a bounce off the lower trendline last week. But the week ended with a loss, and trading volumes were higher than last week.

2018-04-29 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-04-29 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Earnings reports, for the most part, are crushing expectations. You’d think stock prices would react in kind, blasting past resistance levels and other technical sticking points. You’d be wrong. Lot’s of after hours/pre-market gap ups, only to be sold off during the trading day.

For example, Caterpillar (CAT) jumped ~5% after a massive earnings beat, only reverse course during Tuesday trading to close with a 6% loss! Even technology names weren’t immune. Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) rose 7% and 8% in after-hours trading, respectively, after releasing strong quarterly results. The next day, Amazon shed some of that gain, closing up ~4%, while Intel ended with 0.6% loss! Not exactly a sign of institutional support…

Such is life in a downtrend…which is why it pays to be cautious and avoid initiating new positions until market conditions improve.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 22nd = Downtrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
We kick things off with a downtrend still in place, though there were some positive developments last week.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-22 – US Stock Market Averages

All the indexes were above their 50-day moving averages by Wednesday, only to relinquish that level by Friday’s close.  Again, only the Russell 2000 is in positive territory using this indicator.  So we start the week in downtrend territory, with the prospect of an uptrend signal just ahead.

Price and volume action really is mixed.  On the positive side, the markets rose above their 50-day moving average, and it has been 11 weeks since the downtrend started.  This means that stocks have had a chance to form good price patterns and should be ready to breakout.  On the negative side, only 4 weeks have past since the second major sell-off in the latest downtrend, so some price patterns likely need another two weeks before their ready to go.  Also, all of the higher than average trading volume has occurred when prices have fallen.

Friday’s price action put OEW back in downtrend mode, removing the possibility that the latest moves were the beginning of a new rally.

2018-04-22 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-04-22 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The ADX indicator is unchanged from last week; the DI- remains higher than the DI+ (bearish), and the ADX line is flat.

S&P prices tested the upper trendline of the descending triangle, but were unable to breakthrough.  For comparison, the Dow Jones broke through the upper trend line of its own descending triangle last week; a good sign if you were trading that index.

2018-04-22 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-04-22 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Right now, the upper trendline sits just above 2,700, while the patterns floor remains at 2,581. At this point, the S&P would have to violate the longer-term trend (the rising price channel) in order to reach the floor; that lower trendline sits at ~2,600.

Earnings season has started up again and we’ve grown accustom to companies crushing analyst expectations. Anything less is now cause for panic sell-offs, so it’s a good time to review watch lists AND current holdings.

For growth stocks, I’m on the lookout for double-bottom price patterns. For income stocks, make sure the payout ratios remain within acceptable limits (i.e. less than 60%).


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 15th = Downtrend

  • 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
U.S. markets contended with the threat of an escalation in the Syrian War last week.  As of Saturday, threats of missile strikes turned into actual missile strikes.  We’ll see how markets respond on Monday.  For now, we’re still in a downtrend, but price action did improve last week.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-04-15 – US Stock Market Averages

For now, all the indexes regained their 20-day moving averages, but most are below their 50 day moving averages.  The only exception is the Russell 2000, which begins the week above it’s 50 day moving average.

Price and volume action remains downtrend territory. We didn’t add any distribution days to the count, but trading volume declined as prices rose (not a good sign).

OEW analysis continues to indicate that the current downtrend may have bottomed, but price action remains choppy and hasn’t given the all clear yet.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P starts this week on better footing than last week. The S&P found support at the bottom of the descending triangle pattern, and is now looking to cross the 50-day moving average.

2018-04-15 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-04-15 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The pattern’s floor remains at 2581; the upper trendline now sits at 2725, give or take.  The ADX indicator is basically unchanged from last week; the DI- remains higher than the DI+ (bearish), and the ADX line is flat.

2018-04-15 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-04-15 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Moving to the weekly view, the S&P500 bounced off the price channels lower trendline during the week.


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.


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