The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 23rd = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Another week, another uptrend signal…although this time there are some storm clouds on the horizon that indicate it’s time to be cautious.

Most of the indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages, but there’s a divergence between those averages.  The Dow and the NYSE look extended at the moment; they sit well above their 20 day moving averages.  On the other hand, the Nasdaq and Russell 2k are struggling to move past that same moving average.  Since the Russell 2K and the Nasdaq are home to a majority of growth stocks, the fact that they’re lagging industrials and a more “worldwide” index isn’t a sign of strength.

2018-09-23 – US Stock Market Averages

The trading environment still looks good from a price/volume perspective (no new distribution days; Friday’s option expiration doesn’t count).  Many leading stocks are testing support levels or have been unable to make much progress after breaking out…another reason to be careful.

OEW remains in an uptrend to start the week.  The market averages tracked by OEW ticked a major checkbox last week; all reached new price highs.  So they reassessed the situation.  No immediate issues to address, but there are some technical indicators that are flashing yellow. (e.g. relative strength, sector strength, # of stocks above their 200 day moving average, etc.).  Therefore, OEW feels it’s time to get cautious.

By last Friday, the S&P ($SPX) rallied to the upper trendline of the price channel we’re tracking, but was again rebuffed.  Each time we’ve reached the upper bound (or nearly reached) since April, we encountered at least a week of selling.  The S&P sits 2-3% above the 50 day / lower price channel trendline, so I won’t be concerned until we break below that level.

2018-09-23 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The ADX turned up as a result of last week’s strength, with bullish price movement in control.  But again, the ADX sits well below 20, meaning it isn’t providing the most reliable signals; better to stick with momentum indicators for now.  The longer-term view remains the same and supports the case for an uptrend; trading volume returning and the January high supporting.

2018-09-23 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Based on the above, I expect a sell-off takes us to back to the January high (just below 2900 for the S&P) and wouldn’t be surprised if we tested support at the 50-day/lower price channel.  That said, you know the saying about opinions, so the best way for you to prepare, participate, and protect is to form your own opinion based on your own investing process and then take action.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 16th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Looks like the stock market opted for a run at new highs (rather than searching for support).  A quick run through a bunch of recession indicators (trends in the yield curve, unemployment, new home sales, retail sales, etc.) shows no sign of a recession with the next 12 months.  So even if the markets do test support key support levels sometime soon, it’s most likely a buy the dip opportunity.

All the indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages; the Nasdaq and NYSE regained the 20 day average last week.

2018-09-16 – US Stock Market Averages

A solid week of gains on rising trading volume last week; not quite as much volume as expected, but we’re in a positive position nonetheless.

OEW is still in an uptrend, and still expecting new highs in all market averages before any kind of next major correction.

2018-09-16 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The S&P ($SPX) starts the week in a good position; fresh off a key support level and in the middle of our price channel. Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: the ADX is showing a weak trend. At least the directional indicators are supporting of an uptrend (DI+ is greater than DI-). One of these days I’ll need to find a momentum indicator to supplement the ADX.

2018-09-16- SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Extending our view, we see the expected increase in trading volume, and the January high acting as a support level last week.

And since we’ve successfully recovered the January high, it’s a good time to check your asset allocation levels and/or take some profits.  Remember; bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 9th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Good guess last week; the markets sold off after hitting a new high.  I’m expecting an increase in trading volume this week (more like a return to somewhat normal trading volumes).  Anything is possible at this point; maybe we take a run at new highs, maybe we look for support at the 50 day.

All the indexes are above their 50 day moving averages.  The S&P500 and Russell 2000 are sitting on their 20 day moving averages, while the Nasdaq and NYSE are below that level.

2018-09-09 – US Stock Market Averages

Most of the indexes added 2 distribution days to their counts, putting the S&P’s total at 5.  That’s a bit elevated, but given the lack of overall volume, not too concerning.  If trading volume picks up this week, accumulation/distribution days will be more impactful.

OEW still has an uptrend signal in place.

2018-09-09 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

As mentioned at the start, the S&P ($SPX) sold off last week.  On the bright side, prices are still above key technical support levels and our price channel remains intact.  The ADX turned over…no surprise given 4 consecutive days of lower closing prices. But the directional indicators are essentially even.  That’s a long way of saying there’s no change in outlook based on last week’s action.

2018-09-09- SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Extending the view, the January high could act as support this week.  Hopefully it holds, and we rally back to new highs over the next few weeks.

Participant, protect, and prepare.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 2nd = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Short and sweet this week; no change in the signals to start September, and a 4 day trading week as the U.S. markets are closed Monday for the long Labor Day weekend.

All the indexes remain above their 20/50 day moving averages.

2018-09-02 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume also continue to signal an uptrend, as does OEW.

The S&P ($SPX) gapped up Monday morning, giving us the higher move we were hoping for last week.  The index peaked on Wednesday, which happened to coincide with the upper trendline of the channel we’re following, so naturally prices retreated.  And even though the reading is still below 20, the ADX saw a pretty big bullish shift.

2018-09-02 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

If I had to guess, I’d say we’re in for a slight decline this week, and then a run higher in two weeks that coincides with higher trading volume.

2018-09-02- SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Definitely a positive investing environment to kick-off September, but before you go all super-bull remember that anything is possible once trading volume returns.  Participant, protect, and prepare.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of August 26th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Well…it’s Facebook official; my feed told me that we’re now a part of the longest bull market in history. On Wednesday, the current bull market hit 3,453 days, going back to March 9, 2009. Other articles state that the longest bull market was the 4,494 day version that ran from 1987 to early 2000.

2009-2018 Bull Market – SPX

The debate over 1st or 2nd aside, don’t overlook the nearly 20% declines we saw along the way (e.g. April to June 2010, April to October 2011, June 2015 to February 2016).  Those “corrections” were important; large enough to reset expectations, earnings, etc., without triggering the technical definition of a bear market. Even the swift decline earlier this year was a critical cooling off period.

Had any of the corrections ran a little longer and hit bear market territory (>20%), then the longest bull market ever would actually be split into multiple bull markets. Regardless, the run from market lows in 2009 is impressive, and shows the importance of “corrections” along the way. Not to be outdone, commodities (even gold!), are trying to get in on the action, rallying off their lows last week.

2018-08-26 – US Stock Market Averages

All the indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.  The price/volume indicator also keeps its uptrend, as well as the uptrend signal from OEW.

2018-08-26 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The S&P ($SPX) is back at all time highs, ending the week just above the prior all time of 2873 high set in January.  The ADX is pitifully weak, but at least it’s still bullish.  I’m assuming we’ll see some strength return in September (see below).

2018-08-26 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

The S&P is still too close to the previous high (less than 2 points) to say it “passed” a key resistance level. Ideally, we’d see a 2-3% upward move in higher trading volume this week, but I doubt it. If past is precedent, we’ll see lower trading volumes this week and next, with a sharp rise during the first full week of September.

Recent breakouts of leading growth stocks have been a mixed back this earnings season. Just crushing earnings expectations isn’t enough…raising guidance is also required these days, which is typical of activity late in a market cycle. Participant, protect, and prepare.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of August 19th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Now I can say that earnings season is winding down; 90% of the companies in the S&P500 have reported earnings for Q2.  Sales, profits, and earnings per share are all higher…which is typical for this stage in the business cycle.

All the indexes are back above their 20 and 50 day moving averages this week.

2018-08-19 – US Stock Market Averages

All the indexes picked up a distribution day last Wednesday.  And although prices bounced off session lows, volume fell on Thursday and Friday (except for the Dow).  Ideally, volume would increase during the rebound.

OEW uptrend call remains in play.  The S&P didn’t quite reach the 2790 support level (2,802 on Wednesday), but the decline was enough to meet the “test support” call from last week, so it’s risk on.

The S&P ($SPX) found support just above the 50-day moving average last week, so a test of the lower channel trendline will have to wait.  A weak trend persists per the ADX, with the bearish directional indicator (DI-) just above the bullish (DI+).

2018-08-19 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

Expanding the view, the S&P is within striking distance of the all-time high from January (2,873); we topped out at 2,863 two weeks ago after touching the upper channel.  Keep an eye on that level as potential support/resistance.  Powering through on high trading volume is a great sign…selling off not so much.

2018-08-19 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Despite the recent spike in volatility, trading remains subdued (it IS August after all).  Now is not the time to be complacent.  Rather, take this time to review your holdings and adjust position sizes that may be out of whack.  And don’t forget to review/renew your watch lists.  Mine have grown a bit this month, even for income investments!

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of August 12th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
I was a bit early in my “earnings season is winding down” comment; must have been looking at the wrong week again.  Not that earnings mattered…a trade war with Turkey and a falling Lira drove our downside move last week.

All the indexes start this week above their 50 day, and only the NYSE is below it’s 20.

2018-08-12 – US Stock Market Averages

Most of the indexes also picked up two distribution days (Thursday/Friday).  Since the overall trading volume was so low, it’s hard to make the case that institutional selling is picked up.  It’s definitely something to watch…August is notoriously bad for U.S. equities, and the trading environment seems too quiet considering all the macro factors that are currently in flux (tariffs, currency, QE/QT, etc.)

Objective Elliott Wave remains in uptrend mode, but there’s an expectation that the S&P will test support in the 2790’s in the next week or two (coincidentally, that’s roughly the 50-day moving average, and just a few points above the 2780 support level from March/June)

The S&P ($SPX) remains firmly entrenched the rising channel we’ve been tracking.  Last week, prices tested the upper trendline.  And again, they headed lower afterwards.

2018-08-12 – SPX Technical Analysis – Daily

The ADX continues to show a weak trend, but a slope change and a DI- indicator spike shows what little trend we have is bearish. The chart reminds me of price action / ADX readings from mid-June…just before the S&P fell to the lower trendline of the price channel.

2018-08-12 – SPX Technical Analysis – Weekly

Overall, most signs point to a positive environment for investing and trading in U.S. equities, but that lack of volume and spike in volatility is something to watch. The ADX appears to align with OEWs call for some price drops over the next week or two, but that should be a BTD opportunity.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.