The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 28th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
U.S. stocks continued to recover from the beating they took a week and a half ago, with most indexes reaching all time highs while the Russell 2000 continues to lag behind.  This week will be a shortened week, as U.S. markets are closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day.

The Russell 2000 regained the 50-day moving average, but still remains below the 20 day.  All the other market indexes are above both key levels.

2017-05-28 – US Stock Market Averages

Price/volume action improved last week, with no new distribution days and a few old ones falling off the count.

OEW analysis shows the continued uptrend as well, finally seeing at least a little bit that the Dow and S&P500 strength needed to continue the current rally.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 21st = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Mixed
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
A midweek sell-off hit leading stocks hard, and put the general markets below key support levels.  Indexes recovered some of those losses by Friday’s close, keeping the overall outlook intact.

Stock indexes recovered some of their losses, and most begin this week above their 50 day moving averages, but below their 20-day.  The Russell 2000 sits below both levels, reflecting the difficult week for small cap stocks.

2017-05-21 – US Stock Market Averages

Price/volume remains in an uptrend, although another steep sell-off through the 50-day moving average would change this view.  Currently, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P500 and NYSE sit at 5, 3,  5, and 4 distribution days, respectively.

OEW remains in an uptrend, and looks for strength from the Dow and S&P to continue the current rally.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 14th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The U.S. markets did not get a Macron bump courtesy of the French election.  Retail had the worst week by far, while cybersecurity firms rallied in response to the WannaCry attack.  Now investors will need to look for some other catalyst.

Stock indexes remain above most moving averages; the lone exception being the Russell 2000 closing below the 20-day.

2017-05-14 – US Stock Market Averages

Price/volume remains in an uptrend, as does OEW.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 7th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Will results from the French run-off prime the US markets for more gains? Or was Friday’s late day rally all we’re going to get?

To kick of the week, all the stock indexes remain above their key levels.

2017-05-07 – US Market Averages

Price/volume remains in an uptrend.  Friday’s upside move was only tarnished by a lack of volume.  But given the election taking place in France, that isn’t too surprising or concerning.

OEW is back in uptrend mode.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 30th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

COMMENTARY
Market reaction to French election results stayed on trend, giving US stocks a much needed jolt to the upside. The positive momentum was enough to move two indicators back into uptrend territory, and shift the overall market outlook.

All the indexes blew past their moving averages last week, and maintained those gains to close above their 20 and 50 day levels.  This action moves the moving average outlook back to an uptrend.

2017-04-30 – US Stock Market Averages

Many leading stocks broke out of their bases on Monday and Tuesday, providing enough strength to shift the price/volume outlook back to an uptrend.  That said, distribution days remain elevated for both the NYSE, S&P, and DJIA.  Even the Nasdaq picked up a distribution day last week.  Something to keep an eye on, as it won’t take much more selling to shift the outlook back to mixed (or even a downtrend).

OEW states there is a high probability that we’re in an uptrend, but some confirmation is still needed, so the outlook changed to “mixed”.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 16th = Downtrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
• Price & Volume Action: Mixed
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
Investors used the shortened trading week to take some money off the table, with U.S. stock indexes grinding lower.  Will last week’s hypothesis holds true? Will institutional investors step in and slowly rotate into new sectors?  For now, the outlook has changed to a downtrend while we await the answer.

2017-04-16 – US Stock Market Averages

All the indexes ended the week below their 20 and 50 day moving averages, confirming a downtrend from a moving average perspective.  The “official” bull/bear support level (200 day moving average) is within striking distance.  The NASDAQ, being the strongest index of late, is naturally the most extended from the 200 day moving average, sitting ~7% above that level as of Friday.  Next is the DJIA at ~6%, the S&P at 4.5%, and the NYSE at 3%.

Following suit, price volume action also deteriorated.  Distribution days are elevated for all but the Nasdaq.  The S&P500 has 8, the NYSE and DJIA have 7, while the NASD only has 4.  The silver lining here is that trading volumes have been lower than average for the past few weeks, meaning that the selling is likely related to rebalancing holdings rather than outright liquidation.

That said, many of the leading stocks I follow have either broken key support levels or failed to break-out entirely, so we’ll have to wait and see which sectors are the new favorites.

OEW also changed to a downtrend, but restated the “good news”:

“When OEW signals a downtrend confirmed, it is likely that the correction will be nearly over. This kind of activity has happened quite often in the past 8 years”

OEW key support levels (measured on the S&P500) are just a few percent away.

The market averages are still close to their all time highs; the S&P sits ~3% off that mark.  Most of the downward price moves we’ve seen since 2016 have been right around 3%, with the two major exceptions being the run up to Brexit and the US Presidential election.  If the trend continues, the time we spend in this downtrend will be minimal.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.