Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 29th = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
    • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend*

COMMENTARY
Liquidity and impeachment and trade wars, oh my. There’s been no shortage of headline risk over the past few weeks and macroeconomic data continues to weaken.

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, albeit a weakening one. A break below the 50-day is all it would take for a trend change.

More commentary after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Week of September 29 2019


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 22nd = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The stock market outlook rolls into week 3 of the latest uptrend; the ADX, Price & Volume, and OEW remain bullish.

More commentary after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Week of September 22 2019


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 15th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend; no change in the three signals (ADX, Price & Volume, and OEW).

More commentary after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Week of September 15 2019


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 8th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The stock market outlook shifts gears this week.  All three signals (ADX, Price & Volume, and OEW) show a new uptrend underway.

More commentary after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Week of September 08 2019


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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 1st = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
No change in the market outlook; the downtrend continues. The ADX, price/volume, and OEW indicators are all in downtrends. Stock prices did receive a much needed lift on Thursday, after China announced it would not retaliate against President Donald Trump’s most recent tariff plan.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-09-01 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The S&P500 ($SPX) continues to trade below its 50-day moving average.   The floor of support near 2,825 held up well last month, with prices bouncing higher after each test.  Unfortunately, there is also a resistance level around 2,940, which acted as ceiling and sent prices low after each test (including Friday).

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-09-01 – SPX Fibonacci Analysis – Daily

If we only plot closing prices and then overlay Fibonacci retracement levels on the June-July rally, we see range-bound price action between the 38.2 and 61.8 ratios.  Trading algorithms at work?  Who knows.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-09-01 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

The weekly view shows the S&P500 reaching is first higher close in a month, but with low trading volume  That’s to be expected the week leading up to Labor Day.  Now that the summer holiday season is over, trading volume should return.

Last week’s “good” news aside, the latest round of tariffs go live on Sunday (September 1), and U.S. markets are closed Monday, September 2 for the Labor Day holiday. It’s anyone’s guess what happens Tuesday when trading resumes. I’m looking for a strong move above the 50-day moving average, on above average volume, to signal a new rally is really in progress.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , ,

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of August 25th = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
Anything interesting impact the markets last week? Anyone?

In summary, the game of one-upmanship continued. The Chinese government decided to increase tariffs on U.S. goods, in retaliation for the increase of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. retaliated by raising the existing tariffs on Chinese goods even higher.  More tweets to come, I’m sure.

No change in the market outlook; the downtrend continues. The ADX, price/volume, and OEW indicators are all bearish.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-08-25 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The S&P500 ($SPX) continues to trade below its 50-day moving average. The trendline for the downtrend flattened a bit, now crossing through Thursdays close. The floor of support near 2,825 remains intact. The next stop would be ~2,725.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-08-25 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

The weekly view shows a fairly steep downtrend, similar to May’s decline. This time around, we’ve had “higher” lows each week. Year-to-date (3rd week in August), the S&P has basically gone nowhere; the index netted a loss of 0.9%. Prices rose as much as 5%, and fell as much as 18%, which reflects the volatility we’ve experienced over the past 12 months.

The U.S. Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, which was supposed to provide the fireworks last week, became a sidenote thanks to the tariff talk. Fed chief Powell commented on the tariffs, more evidence of a global slowdown, and troubling economic “fundamentals” like low inflation. He also mentioned that the Fed is looking into the “monetary policy tools we have used both in calm times and in crisis, and we are asking whether we should expand our toolkit.” Some people feel this is a reference to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), or more accurately known as the Magic Money Tree.

The Magic Money Tree is an economic theory that a monetarily independent country (i.e. one that can “print” its own money, such as the U.S.) can continuously “borrow” money in its own currency until it creates inflation.  Here are some of the assumptions that go along with the theory:

  • As an issuer of currency, a government cannot go bankrupt because it can just keep creating and printing money
    • Governments can spend without restraint
  • Large deficits and debt don’t matter when an economy is not at full capacity
    • Assumes that public programs are created to stimulate economic activity
  • All public programs can be financed by debt or creating money
    • Politicians have latched on to this one with an iron fist!
  • Financial and political activities are coordinated
    • So long independent Fed
  • Taxes can be used to control inflation
    • Assumes that a government can actually do this correctly
    • Assumes that the public will act rationally to higher taxes

Sadly, whether or not the theory is true or can even be successful in a democratic country is irrelevant.  When we have another recession, cutting interest rates will not be enough, and the government will be called upon to do something (anything).  Politicians will look at the potential benefits and say the ends justify the means.

I, for one, am hopeful that cooler heads prevail and we don’t see anything like MMT.  But I’m also getting prepared, in case we do.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , ,

Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of August 18th = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
No change in the market outlook; the ADX, price/volume, and OEW indicators remain in downtrends.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-08-17 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The S&P500 ($SPX) remains under the new down trendline, as well as the 50-day moving average.  On the plus side, prices found a floor of support near the 2,825 three times since the start of August.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-08-17 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

In the weekly view, the plotted trendline had been holding strong, but finally gave way last week.

U.S. 30-year bonds fell below the Fed Funds rate, meeting yet another definition for an inverted yield curve.  As mentioned last time, don’t try to time the market based on this indicator.  Just know that the economy has issues, and prepare accordingly.  Some companies are already acting like they’re operating within a recession.  Others may not be effected for some time.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
This material is for general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purpose. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing. Invest Safely, LLC is not a law firm, certified public accounting firm, or registered investment advisor and no portion of its content should be construed as legal, accounting, or investment advice.
The material is not to be construed as an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell a security nor is it to be construed as investment advice. Additionally, the material accessible through this website does not constitute a representation that the investments described herein are suitable or appropriate for any person.
Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
Model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight
Back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the use of a trading model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage assets
Actual investment results during the corresponding time periods may have been materially different from those portrayed in the model
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
The S&P 500 Composite Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard & Poor’s chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest. The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet investment objective(s). The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.
Investing involves risk (even the “safe” kind)! Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of underlying risk. Therefore, do not assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), or prove successful (including the investments and/or investment strategies describe on this site).
Posted in Historical Data, Market Trends, Other Blogs | Tagged , , , ,