Stock Market Outlook: March 29th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook continues in a downtrend, though there are pockets of oversold conditions despite the elevated volatility.

Oil and Energy continue to outperform, and were joined by small cap value this week.  Bitcoin, Communications, and Large Cap Growth underperformed.  Mixed survey data and a downbeat consumer didn’t do anything to combat uncertainty caused by the conflict in West Asia.

Read the full analysis, including charts and market commentary, at Invest-Safely.com: Stock Market Outlook – Week of March 29 2026

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Stock Market Outlook: March 22nd = Downtrend

The stock market outlook continues in a downtrend and price fell below long-term technical indicators.

Oil and Energy outperformed again, while Gold, Utilities, and Low Volatility underperformed.  The FOMC held rates steady, while investors were busy repricing risk across asset classes.

Read the full analysis, including charts and market commentary, at Invest-Safely.com: Stock Market Outlook – Week of March 22 2026

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Stock Market Outlook: March 15th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook enters week 6 of the current downtrend, as volatility continues to rise.

Oil, Energy and Momentum outperformed; Gold, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and High Dividends underperformed.  Inflation data was mixed ahead of this week’s FOMC decision.

Read the full analysis, including charts and market commentary, at Invest-Safely.com: Stock Market Outlook – Week of March 15 2026

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Stock Market Outlook: March 8th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend, as markets reprice the impact of international conflict.

Oil and Energy outperformed; Emerging Markets, Industrials, and Value Styles underperformed.  Volatility ramped across asset classes and NFP data surprised to the downside.

Read the full analysis, including charts and market commentary, at Invest-Safely.com: Stock Market Outlook – Week of March 08 2026

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Stock Market Outlook: March 1st =Downtrend

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend, with geopolitical risks primed to inject volatility into financial assets.

Gold, Utilities, and Low Beta outperformed; Crypto, Financials, and Value underperformed.  Producer prices came in higher than expected, which will sharpen the focus on this week’s employment data.

Read the full analysis, including charts and market commentary, at Invest-Safely.com: Stock Market Outlook – Week of March 01 2026

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Stock Market Outlook: February 22th = Downtrend

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend, though price has risen back to retest key levels.

Oil, Materials & Utilities, and High Beta outperformed; Consumer Staples lagged.  PCE was higher than expected, while Q4 GDP came in low due to the government shutdown.

TREND ANALYSIS

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.1% last week, as price traded back to key levels:

• At the 50-day moving average
• ~6% above the 200-day moving average

The index bounced after sweeping the lows near 6800, but was unable to clear the 21 and 50 day moving averages with any conviction.

• Average Directional Index: Bearish
  • ADX direction indicators remain bearish
• Institutional Activity: Bearish
  • Price returned to the 50 dma on average volume
• On-Balance Volume: Neutral
  • On-balance volume is retesting its long-term average

SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-02-22

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS

S&P500 Sectors

Materials ( $XLB ) outperformed, closely following by Utilities ( $XLU ).  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) underperformed.  Communications ( $XLC ) clawed its way back to neutral.

S&P Sector Performance – 2026-02-22

S&P500 Investing Styles

All investing styles ended the week in positive territory.  High Beta ( $SPHB ) led the way and Mega Cap Growth, High Dividend, and Defensives ( $OWF, $SPHD, $POWA ) brought up the rear.  Momentum ( $MTUM ) reclaimed a bullish bias.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-02-22

Asset Classes

All asset classes gained ground last week, with Oil ( $USO ) gaining almost 6% and U.S. Bonds adding 0.1%.  The U.S. Dollar ( $DXY ) strengthened to neutral bias after several weeks in bearish territory.

Sector Style Performance – 2026-02-22

COMMENTARY

Markets

Selling pressure took a breather last week; almost the entire dashboard registering a gain.  Defensive positioning remains in control, although Consumer staples experienced some profit taking.

The Volatility Index ( $VIX ) spent another week testing the “chop zone” (a reading from 20 to 30), supporting the risk-off signals provided by price and volume.

Macroeconomic Data & Policy

New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% in January, which was a bit less than expected.

Headline PCE Price Index rose 2.9% YoY, up from 2.8% in November and driven by the cost of services. Core PCE rose 3.0% YoY, versus 2.8% in November.

Real GDP grew 1.4% in Q4 2025, a sharp slowdown from 4.4% in Q3 and lower than 1.9% in 2024 Q4. Government spending contracted ~5% due to the fall 2025 shutdown, bringing down the overall figure by almost 1%.

FOMC minutes showed a hawkish pause in place,, with most members wanting to hold rates steady until inflation shows further improvement.

The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that President Trump’s tariff program exceeded presidential authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).  Within hours of the ruling, the Trump administration announced a new, 10% global tariff, citing authority under the Trade Act of 1974 instead of the IEEPA.

Geopolitics

The U.S. continues to build up military assets in the Middle East. Earlier in the week, there was some hope for an agreement as talks in Geneva resulted in some “guiding principles”. But the two sides remain far apart, per sources (Reuters.com: US and Iran slide towards conflict as military build-up eclipses talks).

EYES ON THE HORIZON

Several Fed members speak next week; PPI comes out Friday

• Monday: —
• Tuesday: 7 Fed Speeches
• Wednesday: —
• Thursday: —
• Friday: PPI

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Content Sources:
Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Hedgeye, StockCharts.com,
TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Performance Methodology:
All sector performance data is sourced from ThinkorSwim and reflects price‑only returns
calculated using end‑of‑week closing data. Bias classifications follow a proprietary
Invest Safely, LLC model and update only when trend conditions meet predefined thresholds.
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