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Market Outlook for the Week of June 30th = Uptrend Intact, ups and downs continue
- Short-term (20 DMA):
- The indexes closed above their 20-day moving averages again, although the DJIA dipped below during the week. Per IBD, we’re still in a confirmed uptrend. Volatility (in the form of day-to-day swings) continued, but is still historically low.
- Intermediate (50 DMA):
- Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, and Elliott wave continues to indicate an uptrend.
- Long-term (200 DMA):
- Market averages are far extended from their 200 day moving averages, and the long term Elliot Wave uptrend remains intact.
Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro
REVIEW
The general market made a new bull market high on Tuesday at SPX 1968, dropped to 1945 by Thursday, and then rallied to 1961 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%, and the DJ World index was -0.25%. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the uptick: existing/new home sales, personal income/spending, consumer confidence/sentiment and PCE prices. On the downtick: Q1 GDP, Case-Shiller, durable goods orders, the LEI and the monetary base. Next week we get reports on Nonfarm payrolls, ISM and the Chicago PMI.
MARKET VALUATION: Wilshire 5000 v US GDP
This week Q1 GDP 2014 was reported lower than the previous quarter for the first time since Q2 2009. The end of the great recession. While the stock market took this information in stride, blaming the decline on the weather, we are starting to get concerned about market valuations. The…
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Market Outlook for the Week of June 23rd = Uptrend Intact, but moves south for support
- Short-term (20 DMA):
- The indexes remain above their 20-day moving averages, and per IBD, we’re still in a confirmed uptrend. Volatility was to the upside, due to favorable reaction to the FOMC. After hitting new highs, looks for some consolidation in the coming week.
- Intermediate (50 DMA):
- Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, and Elliott wave continues to indicate an uptrend.
- Long-term (200 DMA):
- Market averages are far extended from their 200 day moving averages, and the long term Elliot Wave uptrend remains intact.
Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro
REVIEW
The bull market made news highs this week, after the FOMC meeting, statement, and press conference. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.3%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.0%, and the DJ World index was +1.0%. On the economic front positive reports continue to outpace negative ones. On the uptick: the NY/Philly FED, industrial production, the NAHB, the CPI, leading indicators, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: housing starts, building permits, and the WLEI. Next week we get reports on Q1 GDP, Personal income/spending, and the PCE.
LONG TERM: bull market
This bull market continues to unfold. But has recently reached the point where investors feel the Central Banks of the world have their back, and they have nothing to fear. Volatility is at its lowest level since 2007, and risk premiums on sovereign debt are also at similar lows. After a multi-year bull market this is typically the calm before…
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Market Outlook for the Week of June 16th = Uptrend with Volatility
- Short-term (20 DMA):
- The market indexes remain above their 20-day moving averages. Per IBD, we’re still in a confirmed uptrend. As expected per Elliott Wave, last week saw some volatility, and we encountered a few days of high volume selling (distribution days). With option expiration next Friday and FOMC meeting minutes being released, expect more of the same this week.
- Intermediate (50 DMA):
- Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, and Elliott wave continues to indicate an uptrend.
- Long-term (200 DMA):
- Market averages are far extended from their 200 day moving averages, and the long term Elliot Wave uptrend remains intact.
Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro
REVIEW
After hitting an all time high right at the OEW 1956 pivot at noon Monday, the market went into pullback mode for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.8%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.4%, and the DJ World index lost 0.3%. On the economic front, positive reports edged out negative ones for the week. On the uptick: business/wholesale inventories, retail sales, export prices, the monetary base, plus the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: the PPI, the WLEI, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week should be a busy one. Besides the FOMC meeting Tues/Wed, we have Options expiration Friday, plus reports on Capacity utilization and Housing. Best to your week!
LONG TERM: bull market
Five years ago, hardly anyone thought we were starting a bull market. Three years ago, most thought the bull market ended in the spring of 2011. Two years ago, hardly anyone…
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Market Outlook for the Week of June 9th = Uptrend with a chance of Volatility
- Short-term (20 DMA):
- The market averages remain above their 20-day moving averages and remain in a confirmed uptrend per IBD, although some volatility is expected per Elliott Wave and several technical indicators are at overbought levels.
- Intermediate (50 DMA):
- Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, and Elliott wave still indicates an uptrend.
- Long-term (200 DMA):
- Market averages are far extended from their 200 day moving averages, and the long term Elliot Wave uptrend remain intact.
Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro
REVIEW
Another good week for stocks. The third week in a row the market has gained about 1%. The market displayed some choppiness early in the week, dealing with the OEW 1929 pivot. But then cleared it on Thursday, as it made new all time highs every day again except Tuesday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.25%, the NDX/NAZ gained 1.75% and the DJ World index gained 1.35%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, factory orders, auto sales and consumer credit. On the downtick: the ADP, monthly payrolls, investor sentiment, the M1-multiplier, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade balance worsened. Next week we get reports on Retail sales, Export/Import prices and the PPI.
LONG TERM: bull market
The bull market of March 2009 continues. As this market enters its 63rd month it looks nothing like the 60 month, 2002-2007 bull market…
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