Safe Investing – Weekend Market Outlook

Market Outlook for the Week of June 23rd = Uptrend Intact, but moves south for support

  • Short-term (20 DMA):
    • The indexes remain above their 20-day moving averages, and per IBD, we’re still in a confirmed uptrend. Volatility was to the upside, due to favorable reaction to the FOMC. After hitting new highs, looks for some consolidation in the coming week.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA):
    • Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, and Elliott wave continues to indicate an uptrend.
  • Long-term (200 DMA):
    • Market averages are far extended from their 200 day moving averages, and the long term Elliot Wave uptrend remains intact.

Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro

the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

REVIEW

The bull market made news highs this week, after the FOMC meeting, statement, and press conference. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.3%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.0%, and the DJ World index was +1.0%. On the economic front positive reports continue to outpace negative ones. On the uptick: the NY/Philly FED, industrial production, the NAHB, the CPI, leading indicators, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: housing starts, building permits, and the WLEI. Next week we get reports on Q1 GDP, Personal income/spending, and the PCE.

LONG TERM: bull market

This bull market continues to unfold. But has recently reached the point where investors feel the Central Banks of the world have their back, and they have nothing to fear. Volatility is at its lowest level since 2007, and risk premiums on sovereign debt are also at similar lows. After a multi-year bull market this is typically the calm before…

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