Safe Investing – Weekend Market Outlook

Market Outlook for the Week of June 30th = Uptrend Intact, ups and downs continue

  • Short-term (20 DMA):
    • The indexes closed above their 20-day moving averages again, although the DJIA dipped below during the week. Per IBD, we’re still in a confirmed uptrend. Volatility (in the form of day-to-day swings) continued, but is still historically low.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA):
    • Market averages remain above their 50-day moving averages, and Elliott wave continues to indicate an uptrend.
  • Long-term (200 DMA):
    • Market averages are far extended from their 200 day moving averages, and the long term Elliot Wave uptrend remains intact.

Elliott Wave Analysis from Elliott Wave Update by Tony Caldaro

the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

REVIEW

The general market made a new bull market high on Tuesday at SPX 1968, dropped to 1945 by Thursday, and then rallied to 1961 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%, and the DJ World index was -0.25%. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the uptick: existing/new home sales, personal income/spending, consumer confidence/sentiment and PCE prices. On the downtick: Q1 GDP, Case-Shiller, durable goods orders, the LEI and the monetary base. Next week we get reports on Nonfarm payrolls, ISM and the Chicago PMI.

MARKET VALUATION: Wilshire 5000 v US GDP

This week Q1 GDP 2014 was reported lower than the previous quarter for the first time since Q2 2009. The end of the great recession. While the stock market took this information in stride, blaming the decline on the weather, we are starting to get concerned about market valuations. The…

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