Stock Market Outlook: June 21st = Uptrend
The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, as financial markets get ready for the summer trading season.
Emerging market equities, Technology, and Momentum outperformed; Oil, Energy, and High Dividends underperformed. Geopolitical headlines and a hawkish Fed were key drivers for last week’s asset price volatility.
TREND ANALYSIS
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9% last week. The index is:
- ~3% above the 50-day moving average
- ~9% above the 200-day moving average
A volatile week for equity markets, with a gap-up opening, retraced to fill that gap, then a massive options expiration, and finally coming to an early close at the 21-day moving average.
- Average Directional Index: Bearish
- The indicator flipped briefly on Monday’s opening gap
- Institutional Activity: Mixed
- One distribution day rotated out and in to the total count, which remains elevated.
- On-Balance Volume: Bullish
- No change
SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-06-21
PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS
Asset Classes
Emerging Market Equities ( $EEM ) had the best week, rallying almost 5%. Oil ( $USO ) lagged other assets classes again, dropping ~11% after losing bullish bias. No changes in bias last week.
Asset Class Performance – 2026-06-21
S&P500 Sectors
Technology ( $XLK ) outperformed with a gain of almost 5%. On the other hand, Energy ( $XLE ) was pummeled, dropping almost 6%. Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) slipped back to neutral bias.
S&P Sector Performance – 2026-06-21
S&P500 Investing Styles
Momentum ( $MTUM ) outpaced High Beta ( $SPHB ) to led investing styles last week, while High Dividend ( $SPHD ) led to the downside. Low Beta, High Dividends and Defensives ( $SPLV, $SPHD, $POWA ) eased to neutral bias.
Sector Style Performance – 2026-06-21
COMMENTARY
Markets
Equities continue their recent winning streak, but performance across sectors varied widely. Momentum and High Beta stocks continued crushing the rest of the market, with gains of ~16% over the past 4 weeks. The announced Intel-Apple partnership helped tech sector outperform, and countered the mid-week FOMC selloff .
A hawkish FOMC sent short-term yields higher (i.e. bonds lower). Add in a rallying U.S. Dollar, and investors shifted funds away from non-yielding assets like gold.
The oil trade continues to unwind, despite uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding. The $USO ETF lost ~25% over the past 4 weeks.
Macroeconomic Data & Policy
Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used the FOMC press conference to describe his short-term plan for improving the Federal Reserve, including plans to eliminate traditional forward guidance, a shortened official statement, and 5 new task forces to modernize the central bank’s operations. The committee held interest rates steady, but a majority also signaled at least one rate hike later in 2026 to combat sticky core inflation.
Geopolitics
One Wednesday, the U.S. released the official, 14-point framework for ending the U.S.-Iran conflict, which was “formally” signed by President Trump during the G7 summit. The ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon inject uncertainty into the staying power of the agreement, as the U.S. Vice President met with Iranian delegates in Switzerland on Sunday.
EYES ON THE HORIZON
It’s the final trading week ahead of the summer season, when markets traditionally trade a bit more “slowly”, until ramping back up in September.
- Monday: —
- Tuesday: —
- Wednesday: —
- Thursday: PCE and Final Q1 GDP
- Friday: —
Best to Your Week!
The Safe Investing Blog 