Stock Market Outlook: June 14th = Uptrend
The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, as U.S. markets enter a shortened trading week.
Bitcoin, Materials, Momentum outperformed; Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Growth underperformed. Turnaround Tuesday was in full effect, as markets reacted to de-escalating tensions in West Asia.
TREND ANALYSIS
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.6% last week. The index is:
- ~3% above the 50-day moving average
- ~8% above the 200-day moving average
Some added selling pressure last week as stocks moved lower, but the index remains above key levels and hasn’t given us a signal change yet.
- Average Directional Index: Bearish
- No change
- Institutional Activity: Mixed
- The total number of distribution days (6) is elevated, with 3 in the last 8 sessions
- Price remains above the 50-day, so the signal is mixed at the moment
- On-Balance Volume: Bullish
- No change
SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-06-14
PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS
Asset Classes
Bitcoin had a bit of an oversold bounce last week, good enough to lead assets on the upside. Oil ( $USO ) lagged other assets classes. With last weeks loss, Oil dropped to bearish bias, after months in bullish territory and gains of more than 80%. U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ) moved up to neutral.
Asset Class Performance – 2026-06-14
S&P500 Sectors
Materials ( $XLB ) outperformed, while Energy ( $XLE ) was the only sector in the red. eading to the downside for a change. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Industrials ( $XLY, $XLP, $XLI ) continued their recent improvement and are now bullish bias.
S&P Sector Performance – 2026-06-14
S&P500 Investing Styles
Momentum ( $MTUM ) showed out last week, while Large Cap Growth underperformed. Low Beta and Defensives ( $SPLV, $POWA ) returned to bullish bias.
Sector Style Performance – 2026-06-14
COMMENTARY
Markets
SpaceX ( $SPCX ) Day came and went, with the company’s historic, $75 billion IPO on Friday. Even though the rest of the “space trade” didn’t fair so well, equity indexes absorbed the event rather well.
Despite higher than expected inflation readings ( see the next section ), traditional hedges ( Gold/Bonds ), and risk assets like Bitcoin, appeared trade on de-escalation in West Asia.
Macroeconomic Data & Policy
Headline CPI for May was 4.2% year-over-year, up from 3.8% in April and almost doubling last May’s 2.4% reading. It was the highest annual inflation rate in three years, thanks in part to an increase in energy prices of ~24%. Core CPI hit 2.9% year-over-year, up slightly from April and last May.
Producer prices experienced renewed inflation, similar to CPI, with May Headline PPI hitting +6.5% year-over-year, up from 5.7% in April and near 2.5x higher than last year. Core PPI was +4.9% year-over-year, which was inline with April and up from +3.2% last May.
The European Central Bank decided to increase interest rates by 0.25%. This highlighted a stark macroeconomic and monetary policy divergence between resilient U.S. corporate markets and European equities, which continue to struggle from a structural reliance on imported energy.
There was some good news: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded from May’s all time low and exceeded market expectations.
Geopolitics
Peace efforts in West Asia remain “challenging” at best. Markets reacted positively to headlines that military strikes were canceled, and the prevailing narrative heading into the weekend was that an agreement was close at hand.
As of this post (Sunday evening), the US and Iran say they have reached an agreement that will take effect next Friday, after a signing ceremony in Switzerland. The memorandum of understanding is expected to kick-off 60 days of negotiation on ending the war. President Donald Trump said the US is lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen once the framework is signed. The full text of the agreement has not yet been released.
EYES ON THE HORIZON
We’ve got a packed week ahead in financial markets, with equity trading closed on Friday for Juneteenth. The most anticipated event has to be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday; the first with Kevin Warsh as Chairman.
- Monday: —
- Tuesday: Housing Starts
- Wednesday: Retail Sales, FOMC Rate Decision
- Thursday: Quadruple Witching Day
- Friday: U.S. Markets Closed
Best to Your Week!
The Safe Investing Blog 