Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 20th = Uptrend
- Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
All the major stock market averages remained above their 20-day moving averages.
- Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
All the major stock market averages remained above their 50-day moving averages.
- Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed
3 of the 5 major stock market averages remained below their 200-day moving averages.
The uptrend rolls on for a 5th straight week. I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised, as the most recent bull market was the one that wouldn’t end (or hasn’t ended depending on your viewpoint!). According to OEW, we’re still in a bear market. If the S&P500 goes much higher, we’ll need to reevaluate whether the last bull market truly ended, or if this is the end.
The biggest concern with the latest rally is the leadership. Normally, bull markets are led by new, innovative companies. The US markets are currently being led by the old guard (i.e. the industrial sector). Price/volume action continues to show an uptrend, and confirms that the typical leadership isn’t seeing the institutional support that normally coincides with sustainable uptrends.
Moving Average Signals:
- Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
- Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
- Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
- Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week