Weekend Market Outlook – ECB QE edition

Market Outlook entering the Week of Jan 25th = Uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
    With the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial, all the major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
    With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
    All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
High volatility continues to be the order of the day.

Price/volume analysis kicked of last week with an uptrend under pressure, but positive news from the European Central Bank put investors back into buying mode and the market into an uptrend.  A 1.2 trillion Euro quantitative easing (i.e. “QE”) program tends to do that.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis returned to an uptrend (verses last week’s uptrend in jeopardy).  With regard to support levels, the S&P500 appears range-bound between 2,085 and 1,973 (~6%):

  • Resistance: 2,070 / 2,085
  • Support: 1,973 / 2,019

A boost from QE is nice, but may be short-lived.  The outcome of Greek elections is the wild card; in terms of the winning party, their stance on austerity, and the markets reaction to that stance.

The good news is that last week’s message still holds true:  you can harness a volatile market if your process is focused on a short-term time frame (1-2 weeks) and you have entry and exit signals to match.  If you have a longer time frame, these ups and downs can be emotional if you don’t trust your system.

Safe investors always protect against losses, regardless of the timeframe, because there are always new opportunities for those who still have money to invest!

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

Candlestick charts for US market averages

2015-01-25 – US Market Averages

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Weekly Reader – Personal Finance, Money Management, and Investing

Personal Finance

Money Management

Investing

  • Income Investing – Best Practices – Trading Rules (TraderFeed)
  • Growth Investing – Best Practices – Trading Rules (TraderFeed)

**Yes, it’s important for both**

Odds and Ends

  • Jan 26, 2015 – Watch an Asteroid Realtime from the Comfort of Home (Virtual Telescope)
Path of Asteroid 2004 BL86

Path of Asteroid 2004 BL86

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Weekend Market Outlook

Market Outlook entering the Week of Jan 18th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
    With the exception of the NYSE Composite and Dow Jones Industrial, all the major stock market averages ended the week below their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
    With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week below their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
    With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
To kick off 2015, we picked up right where we left off after the last full week of trading in 2014; high volatility.

Price/volume analysis documents the market’s continued Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde routine.  Last week we started in an uptrend, encountered high volume selling most of the week, and then some signs of life on Friday.  This week, we’ll start things off with an uptrend under pressure.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis also shows that selling pressure has taken a toll, as the current outlook matches price/volume (uptrend in jeopardy).  The S&P500 broke the 2,109 support level, so key numbers to watch for a trend change are altered slightly for this week:

  • Resistance: 2,019 / 2,070
  • Support: 1,956 / 1,973

Volatility is a traders friend, and there are definitely opportunities for people with a process focused on a short-term time frame (1-2 weeks).  Those of you with longer term processes likely find the increased volatility “less friendly”.

The best thing that you can do, in either case, is stick to Safe Investing Principle #2 – always protect against losses.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, head to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

Candlestick charts for US Stock Market Averages

2015-01-18 – US Stock Market Averages

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Weekly Reader – Personal Finance, Money Management, and Investing

Personal Finance

Money Management

  • How to Invest a Lump Sum (DGI)

Investing

  • Income Investing – Top Income Stocks – Waste Management (IBD)
  • Growth Investing – 3 Market Measures and What They’re Telling Us (TraderFeed)

Odds and Ends

Silver Infiniti Q60 Coupe

Infiniti Q60 Coupe Concept

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Market Insight from JP Morgan – 1st Quarter 2015

JP Morgan Asset Management updated their quarterly market outlook, as of December 31, 2014, for the latest installment of ‘Market Insights’.

1st page of Q1 2015 JP Morgan Market Insights

JP Morgan Market Insights

Each quarter, you can find this little gem of a PDF on JP Morgan’s Asset management website, including a downloadable “Guide to the Markets” AND audio commentary.

Topics include US Equities, Economy and Fixed Income, along with an view of the International landscape and Asset Class performance.

Sources:


JP Morgan Guide to the Markets: Q1 2015
http://www.jpmorganfunds.com

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Weekend Market Outlook

Market Outlook entering the Week of Jan 11th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Mixed
    With the exception of the NYSE Composite and Dow Jones Industrial, all the major stock market averages ended the week at their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
    With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
    With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
To kick off 2015, we picked up right where we left off after the last full week of trading in 2014; high volatility.

O’neil’s price/volume analysis responded in kind, starting the week with an uptrend under selling pressure, then downgrading to a correction after Monday’s loss, and rebounding to an uptrend on Thursday.

Elliott Wave Analysis shows intermediate-term uptrends, with key S&P500 price levels remaining unchanged from last week:

  • Resistance: 2,070 / 2,085
  • Support: 1,973 / 2,019

More than likely, your strong stocks were unphased by the markets gyrations last week and you’re still holding them in your accounts.  High volatility creates a lot of opportunity got trading, but eventually weeds out companies with underlying issues.  So remember to cut your losses at 7%!

Elliott Wave Analysis from the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

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Weekly Reader – Personal Finance, Money Management, and Investing

Personal Finance

  • 2015 401k Contribution Limits – Don’t forget to adjust yours! (IRS.gov)

Money Management

Investing

  • Income Investing – Dividend “Kings” Updated for 2015 (DGI)
  • Growth Investing – Focus on Market Leading Stocks (IBD)

Odds and Ends

  • Winter driving myths that need to die – Because snow donuts aren’t going to do themselves (Jalopnik)
Silver 911 snow donuts

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

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