Weekend Market Outlook

Market Outlook entering the Week of July 26th = Long-term uptrend under pressure

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Sell Signal
    4 of the 5 major stock market averages fell below their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Sell Signal
    4 of the 5 major stock market averages fell below their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed 
    3 of the 5 major stock market averages closed above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Just when it looks safe to get back into stocks, US equities get slammed with 4 straight days of selling.  That’s not the type of action needed to support an uptrend.

The high-volume indicates that market makers were sellers last week, adding a negative view to the outlook.

Not surprisingly, intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis remain unchanged from last week, which has been the case for most of 2015:

  • Resistance:  2,131/ 2,198
  • Support:  2,070 / 2,085

The S&P500 was unable to get above the 2131 resistance level, which I mentioned last week as the only real hurdle the S&P500 had to clear prior to a 2198 price level.

Tony C. raised the specter of the long-awaiting correction in his weekend market commentary. As much as I am looking forward to that event (because I’m sitting on so much cash), I’ll believe it when I see it.

That said, last week marked the first time in a while that I’ve had to switch from pruning stocks with weak technical/fundamental performance to selling in order to limit losses.  As always, let your stocks do the talking, and follow their lead.

2015-07-26 - US Stock Market Averages

2015-07-26 – US Stock Market Averages

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

  • Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
  • Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
  • Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
  • Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
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Weekend Reading – Personal Finance, Money Management, and Investing

Personal Finance

  • Should you still own bonds? (Fidelity)

Money Management

Investing

  • Income Investing – Sector Allocations for Dividend Investments (DGI)
  • Growth Investing – S&P500 Snapshot (AdvisorPerspectives)

Odds and Ends

  • “Tower, this is Ghost Rider requesting a flyby” (GrindTV)

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Weekend Market Outlook

Market Outlook entering the Week of July 19th = Uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Buy Signal
    All of the major stock market averages rose above their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Buy Signal
    4 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
    All the major stock market averages closed above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Another week of high volatility in the US markets last week, but this time to the upside.  The Nasdaq got a huge bump from Google stock (up 16% on Friday), which accounts for a little over 8% of that index.

Intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis remain unchanged from last week:

  • Resistance:  2,131/ 2,198
  • Support:  2,070 / 2,085

OEW suggests there is no resistance between the S&P500 levels of 2131 and 2198, so we could see a pretty nice rally in the days ahead.  This aligns with last week’s commentary regarding other “positive” signs for the market; Put/Call ratio spike, Europe’s quantitative easing, kicking the can down the road on Greek debt.

Price-volume supports the view that we’re back in an uptrend, so the market outlook moved back into the green.

2015-07-19 - US Stock Market Averages

2015-07-19 – US Stock Market Averages

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

  • Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
  • Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
  • Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
  • Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
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Weekend Reading – Personal Finance, Money Management, and Investing

Personal Finance

Money Management

  • China shows how to destroy a market (Bloomberg)

Investing

  • Income Investing – Dividend Stock Analysis – McDonald’s (DGI)
  • Growth Investing – How to use Trendlines (Vantage Point)

Odds and Ends

  • Apollo Edition Ford Mustang (Yahoo)
Apollo Edition Ford Mustang GT

Source: Yahoo.com

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Weekend Market Outlook

Market Outlook entering the Week of July 12th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
    All of the major stock market averages remained below their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
    All the major stock market averages remained below their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
    4 of the 5 major stock market averages closed above their 200-day moving averages.  The NYSE remained below, while the S&P500 and DJIA were able to recover before the end of the week.

COMMENTARY
A lot of volatility in the US markets last week, although nothing as dramatic as the 5%+ moves in Chinese equities.  Nothing a little “ban” won’t help; as in banning sales by major stock holders! (Bloomberg).  Couple that with news that Greece submitted another bailout proposal, and we’re back to where we started last week’s market outlook.

Trading volumes remained subdued, both on the downside AND the upside, so price-volume action continues to indicate we’re in an uptrend that’s encountering selling pressure.

Intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis remain unchanged from last week:

  • Resistance:  2,185/ 2,131
  • Support:  2,019 / 2,070

This “correction” has been pretty minor (~4% for the S&P), and the Put/Call ratio has already spiked to it’s highest level in months (a contrarian indicator).  With Europe’s quantitative easing still going strong, and Chinese brokers adding liquidity, odds are this latest round of selling won’t be the one to sink the market.

2015-07-12 - US Stock Market Averages

2015-07-12 – US Stock Market Averages

 

 

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

  • Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
  • Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
  • Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
  • Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
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Weekend Reading – Personal Finance, Money Management, and Investing

Personal Finance

Money Management

Investing

  • Income Investing – The Most Important Rule (DGI)
  • Growth Investing – More about the 200 DMA (Ryan Detrick)

Odds and Ends

  • Crazy Wankel Engine (R&T)

Posted in Investing, Money Management, Personal Finance | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekend Market Outlook – Independence Day Edition

Market Outlook entering the Week of July 5th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
    All of the major stock market averages fell or remained below their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
    All the major stock market averages fell or remained below their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
    4 of the 5 major stock market averages remained above their 200-day moving averages.  The NYSE closed below, and the DJIA was able to recover before the end of the week.

COMMENTARY
News that Greece would miss their June 30th repayment deadline was enough to sink the market averages last week.  Coupled with a shortened trading week and lower volumes from the U.S. July 4th holiday, any recovery would be weak at best.

Again, the market is sending mixed messages.  With subdued volume, the price-volume action continues to show selling pressure, but not an outright correction.

After 10 straight weeks of sideways movement, the intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis finally dropped a notch.

  • Resistance:  2,185/ 2,131
  • Support:  2,019 / 2,070

Global markets will remain the focus over the next few weeks.  Greeks go to the polls on Sunday to vote on accepting the terms of the international bailout, and those results are sure to have an impact on the markets next week.  Just as troubling but less reported, the Shanghai Composite has lost 24% since June 12, and the Shenzhen Composite is down roughly 30% in the same period, meaning more pressure on US equities.

Best of luck!

2015-07-05 - US Stock Market Averages

2015-07-05 – US Stock Market Averages

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

  • Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
  • Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
  • Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
  • Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
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