The Safe Investing Blog

Market Outlook entering the Week of Jan 18th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite and Dow Jones Industrial, all the major stock market averages ended the week below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
To kick off 2015, we picked up right where we left off after the last full week of trading in 2014; high volatility.

Price/volume analysis documents the market’s continued Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde routine.  Last week we started in an uptrend, encountered high volume selling most of the week, and then some signs of life on Friday.  This week, we’ll start things off with an uptrend under pressure.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis also shows that selling pressure has taken a toll, as the current outlook matches price/volume (uptrend in jeopardy).  The S&P500 broke the 2,109 support level, so key numbers to watch for a trend change are altered slightly for this week:

• Resistance: 2,019 / 2,070
• Support: 1,956 / 1,973

Volatility is a traders friend, and there are definitely opportunities for people with a process focused on a short-term time frame (1-2 weeks).  Those of you with longer term processes likely find the increased volatility “less friendly”.

The best thing that you can do, in either case, is stick to Safe Investing Principle #2 – always protect against losses.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, head to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2015-01-18 – US Stock Market Averages

Market Outlook entering the Week of Jan 11th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Mixed
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite and Dow Jones Industrial, all the major stock market averages ended the week at their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
To kick off 2015, we picked up right where we left off after the last full week of trading in 2014; high volatility.

O’neil’s price/volume analysis responded in kind, starting the week with an uptrend under selling pressure, then downgrading to a correction after Monday’s loss, and rebounding to an uptrend on Thursday.

Elliott Wave Analysis shows intermediate-term uptrends, with key S&P500 price levels remaining unchanged from last week:

• Resistance: 2,070 / 2,085
• Support: 1,973 / 2,019

More than likely, your strong stocks were unphased by the markets gyrations last week and you’re still holding them in your accounts.  High volatility creates a lot of opportunity got trading, but eventually weeds out companies with underlying issues.  So remember to cut your losses at 7%!

Elliott Wave Analysis from the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

Market Outlook Update for the Week of January 5th = Mixed

Market Commentary
Today’s session saw the Dow Jones Industrials, NASDAQ, and S&P500 fall through their 20-day moving averages, and close the session below their 50-day moving averages.   This market action pushed price/volume analysis from an uptrend under pressure to a correction.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the S&P500 closed at 2020 and change, which is a point above the support level mentioned in the weekend update (2,019).

The market outlook remains “mixed”, but that level is tenuous.  Check your sell signals (technical and/or fundamental) and make sure your investments are holding their own.

Market Outlook entering the Week of Jan 4th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
A short, typical holiday trading week; the markets rose on low trading volume.

O’neil’s price/volume analysis still shows an uptrend under pressure.

Elliott Wave Analysis continues to show intermediate-term uptrends, although the key S&P500 price levels reverted to those from a few weeks ago :

• Resistance: 2,070 / 2,085
• Support: 1,973 / 2,019

Here’s to your continued investing success in 2015!

Elliott Wave Analysis from the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2015-01-04 – US Stock Market Averages