The Safe Investing Blog

Market Outlook entering the Week of Feb 15th = Uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
As soon as we start to discuss a range-bound market, prices break that range to the upside and hit new highs.  Just confirms that we can’t predict, we can only prepare.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis reversed course again (verses last week’s downtrend) and shows a uptrend.  With regard to support levels, last week’s resistance is this week’s support:

• Resistance: 2,131 / 2,198
• Support: 2,070 / 2,085

Price and volume analysis confirmed an uptrend, with some baggage from the number of high volume selling in recent weeks. Ideally, higher than average trading volume would also accompany new highs in price.  That said, nothing about the market action over the past year has been ideal.

U.S. markets are closed Monday for Presidents Day.

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.

For stock charts, head to stockcharts.com

2015-02-15 – US Stock Market Averages | http://www.stockcharts.com

Market Outlook entering the Week of Feb 8th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Another week, same story; high volatility.  We can now say that the market has been range-bound or trendless to start 2015.  Combined with the high volatility we’re seeing each day, it’s no surprise that short and mid-term trading signals are switching from buy to sell to buy on a daily basis.  Until market prices are able exit the range (to the upside or the downside), I expect the market outlook to remain “mixed”.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis reversed course again (verses last week’s downtrend) and shows a uptrend.  With regard to support levels, the S&P500 returned to the support level two weeks ago:

• Resistance: 2,070 / 2,085
• Support: 1,973 / 2,019

Price and volume analysis continues to show a struggling stock market, with another day of high-volume selling added to the count.

Trendless or sideways markets are a great time to prune your portfolio.  Your strongest stocks (fundamentally/technically speaking) will likely be the same stocks that large institutions are holding.  When a new trend finally takes hold, your primed for profit.  If the market rallies, stocks that weather the storm will continue to perform well.  If the market goes into bear mode, the strong stocks will be the last to follow the trend, allowing you a profitable exit.

Remember, the only “good” investments are the ones that make you money!

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2015-02-08 – US Stock Market Averages

Market Outlook entering the Week of Feb 1st = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Downtrend
  With the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial, all the major stock market averages ended the week below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
  With the exception of the NYSE Composite, all the major stock market averages ended the week below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages ended the week above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Last week was a rough one for investors.  Even sectors that held up relatively well the past few months, such as utilities and consumer goods, were hit hard.

Intermediate-term Elliott Wave Analysis reversed course (verses last week’s uptrend) and shows a downtrend underway.  With regard to support levels, the S&P500 slipped a notch, with last weeks support level becoming a resistance level this week (2,019):

• Resistance: 2,019 / 2,070
• Support: 1,956 / 1,973

From a technical analysis perspective, all the major market averages have now encountered a “death cross” in their short-term moving averages.  In this case, the 20 and 50 day moving averages crossed, which corresponds to a short-term downtrend.

Price/volume analysis starts this week in a cautionary mode, due to several days of high volume selling last week.

Safe investors always protect against losses, regardless of the time frame, because there are always new opportunities for those who still have money to invest!

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro

2015-02-01 – US Stock Market Averages