The Safe Investing Blog

Market Outlook entering the Week of August 2nd = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Mixed 
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 20-day moving averages.  The DJIA, Russell 2000 remained below.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Mixed 
  2 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 50-day moving averages.  The NYSE, Russell 2000, and DJIA remained below.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed 
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages remained above their 200-day moving averages.  The NYSE and DJIA remained below.

COMMENTARY
The markets bounced back last week, recovering some of their recent losses.  Trading volume wasn’t spectacular, an overall price is still range-bound.   The 20-dma is below the 50-dma for 4 of the 5 major indexes, which can indicate a trend reversal (i.e. downtrend).

Intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis remain unchanged from last week, which has been the case for most of 2015:

• Resistance:  2,131/ 2,198
• Support:  2,070 / 2,085

The S&P500 needs to take out 2,131 resistance level before we’ll see a meaningful uptrend, so the market outlook remains mixed.  More stocks in my portfolio hit sell triggers last week, and my watch list has only one stock left!

2015-08-02 – US Stock Market Averages

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of July 26th = Long-term uptrend under pressure

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Sell Signal
  4 of the 5 major stock market averages fell below their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Sell Signal
  4 of the 5 major stock market averages fell below their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed 
  3 of the 5 major stock market averages closed above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Just when it looks safe to get back into stocks, US equities get slammed with 4 straight days of selling.  That’s not the type of action needed to support an uptrend.

The high-volume indicates that market makers were sellers last week, adding a negative view to the outlook.

Not surprisingly, intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis remain unchanged from last week, which has been the case for most of 2015:

• Resistance:  2,131/ 2,198
• Support:  2,070 / 2,085

The S&P500 was unable to get above the 2131 resistance level, which I mentioned last week as the only real hurdle the S&P500 had to clear prior to a 2198 price level.

Tony C. raised the specter of the long-awaiting correction in his weekend market commentary. As much as I am looking forward to that event (because I’m sitting on so much cash), I’ll believe it when I see it.

That said, last week marked the first time in a while that I’ve had to switch from pruning stocks with weak technical/fundamental performance to selling in order to limit losses.  As always, let your stocks do the talking, and follow their lead.

2015-07-26 – US Stock Market Averages

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week

Market Outlook entering the Week of July 19th = Uptrend

MOVING AVERAGES

• Short-term (20 DMA): Buy Signal
  All of the major stock market averages rose above their 20-day moving averages.

• Intermediate (50 DMA): Buy Signal
  4 of the 5 major stock market averages rose above their 50-day moving averages.

• Long-term (200 DMA): Uptrend
  All the major stock market averages closed above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
Another week of high volatility in the US markets last week, but this time to the upside.  The Nasdaq got a huge bump from Google stock (up 16% on Friday), which accounts for a little over 8% of that index.

Intermediate support/resistance levels from Objective Elliott Wave analysis remain unchanged from last week:

• Resistance:  2,131/ 2,198
• Support:  2,070 / 2,085

OEW suggests there is no resistance between the S&P500 levels of 2131 and 2198, so we could see a pretty nice rally in the days ahead.  This aligns with last week’s commentary regarding other “positive” signs for the market; Put/Call ratio spike, Europe’s quantitative easing, kicking the can down the road on Greek debt.

Price-volume supports the view that we’re back in an uptrend, so the market outlook moved back into the green.

2015-07-19 – US Stock Market Averages

Sources:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

• Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
• Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
• Buy signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
• Sell signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week