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Market Outlook entering the Week of September 20th = Mixed
MOVING AVERAGES
COMMENTARY
On the upside, markets flashed a short-term buy signal by crossing their 20-day moving averages.
On the downside, markets encountered downward price action on very high trading volumes Thursday and Friday. Apparently, the big investors weren’t too happy about the Fed’s decision not to raise rates.
We’re still waiting for a retest of the 1860’s. According to OEW, a bounce will take us back to new price highs, effectively extending the bull market another 2-6 months before giving way to bear market. If that price level doesn’t hold and the market continues downward, the bull market is over.
2015-09-20 – US Stock Market Averages
For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.
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Market Outlook entering the Week of September 13th = Downtrend
MOVING AVERAGES
COMMENTARY
A little less volatility last week, and US stocks were able to gain some ground (~2%). That also means we’re still waiting for a trend confirmation.
We’ll likely need a retest of recent lows (1,850’s for the S&P500) to make that determination. Failure to hold that level results in a bear market, and a bounce of that level results in some nice gains as the bull continues.
2015-09-13 – US Stock Market Averages
For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.
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Market Outlook entering the Week of September 6th = Downtrend
MOVING AVERAGES
COMMENTARY
Another volatile week for US equities. Great if you’re trading, not so much for investing. So we need to take a step back and survey the investing landscape for clues.
Here is some global perspective from Tony C. at OEW:
Last Monday’s flash crash at the open and retest on Tuesday was an international event. Many of the emerging markets, and commodity driven foreign indices, which had been rising in corrective patterns for the past number of years, appear to have completed those patterns and are now back in bear markets. Our list includes: Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore and S. Korea. These indices join Brazil, Greece and Russia, which had already been in bear markets. These nine indices represent half of the foreign indices we track. Obviously the rest of the indices, plus the US, are now facing some headwinds.
Does this mean that the US is also in a bear market? No. It does mean that large gains will be harder to capture over the next few months and/or quarters. You’ll probably see a lot of price movement, but whether or not that translates into profits is entirely dictated by the trading techniques you’re using.
Speaking of trading, the information here just gives you an idea of the general market conditions. Obviously, you can’t use these posts to day trade, or even “week” trade. Moving averages smooth out price movements. Since the US markets declined so rapidly, the prices that make up a moving average are still dominated by price levels before the decline. So I expect the next rally to occur without an immediate change in the market outlook.
2015-09-06 – US Stock Market Averages
Sources:
For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.
Moving Average Signals:
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