Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 31st = Downtrend

Friday’s positive price action helped US equities reclaim some ground (e.g. the 20-day moving average). As expected, the near-term bottom referenced in last week’s outlook held firm and we got our short-term rally.

Read more after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Jan 31, 2016

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 24th = Downtrend 

US equities found some support on Wednesday, providing a needed pause to the almost daily selling that we’ve experienced in January.  Prices appear to have reached a near-term bottom.

Read more after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Jan 24, 2016

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2015 Performance Review – Stock Market Outlook

Plan, do, check, act: the simple, four step management process popularized by Edward Deming.  After a year of “doing”, it’s time to check the outcomes and see just how well (or poorly) the weekly “Stock Market Outlook” performed in 2015.

My expectations are mixed. With a relatively flat market, attempts to get into and out of the market often leave investors and traders with a whole lot of nothing…and brokers with a lot of profit from commissions.

That said, the weekly market outlook has a longer timeframe, so the volatility (in terms of number of buy and sell signals) should be low.

Results = Success!

More after the jump…2015 Performance Stock Market Outlook

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 17th = Downtrend 

Another volatile week in US equities, continuing the sell-off that rang in the new year.

Read more after the jump – Stock Market Outlook – Jan 17, 2016

 

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 10th = Downtrend 

Not so happy start to 2016 if you’re long US equities.  Trading volumes came back in a big way, and came via a lot of selling.

Read more after the jump…Stock Market Outlook – Jan 10, 2016

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 3rd = Mixed

Price/volume action actually confirmed an uptrend, but two additional distribution days may have already derailed the rally. OEW continues to lean towards an uptrend, but still no confirmation. Trading volumes should get back to normal this week, which should give us better technical indicators.

Read more after the jump – Stock Market Outlook – Jan 3, 2016

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Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 27th = Mixed

MOVING AVERAGES

  • Short-term (20 DMA): Uptrend 
    4 of the 5 major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 20-day moving averages.
  • Intermediate (50 DMA): Downtrend
    4 of the 5 major stock market averages ended the week below their 50-day moving averages.
  • Long-term (200 DMA): Mixed
    3 of the 5 major stock market averages ended the week at or above their 200-day moving averages.

COMMENTARY
A short trading week in the US, and some upward price movement, was enough to change the market outlook heading into the last week of 2015.  Price/volume and OEW are now leaning towards an uptrend.

However, short weeks and low trading volumes are not the stuff that uptrends are made of…best to enjoy the holidays and sit tight!

2015-12-27 - Stock Market Averages

2015-12-27 – Stock Market Averages

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  For price/volume data, head to stockcharts.com.

Moving Average Signals:

  • Uptrend=Market indexes remained above their moving average during the trading week
  • Downtrend=Market indexes remained below their moving average during the trading week
  • Buy signal=Market indexes rose above their moving averages during the trading week
  • Sell signal=Market indexes fell below their moving averages during the trading week
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