The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 11th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
U.S. stocks continued their march higher last week, although Friday’s massive sell of in technology names (price and volume) is enough to give us pause as we start this week. Add to that this week’s Fed meeting and an expected rate hike…no one knows for sure how market prices will react.

All the major stock market averages start the week above key support levels (20 and 50 day moving averages).  The Nasdaq had quite the sell off on Friday, as investors appear to have rotated out of tech stocks and into industrials, banks, and energy.

2017-06-11 – US Stock Market Averages

Although the overall distribution day count remains low, many leading stocks were crushed on Friday. Since many of the leading stocks are also technology plays (e.g. the so called FAANG stocks of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), the price/volume action adds to the possibility of sector rotation.

OEW maintains an uptrend signal for now.

Following last week’s call to prune your holdings, tread carefully in the near term if you plan to initiate new positions.  We may be in an uptrend, but if the sectors are rotating, a new batch of leaders will emerge and your prior research may need to be revisited. 

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 4th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
U.S. stocks remain in rally mode as we enter the first full week of June trading.

All the major stock market averages start the week above key support levels (20 and 50 day moving averages).  The US dollar remains in a downtrend, as does the general commodity market, while gold is in a uptrend.

2017-06-04 – US Stock Market Averages

Two new distribution days last week, but price and volume action remains positive and in rally mode.

OEW maintains an uptrend signal as well.

U.S. stocks have had quite a run since the November election; enough time for a rotation into and out of banks and oil firms.  Now is a great time to check your holdings, book some profits (>20% is one of my rules), and trim any laggards that haven’t kept up or have show weakness in the fundamentals (sales, earnings, etc.)

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 28th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
U.S. stocks continued to recover from the beating they took a week and a half ago, with most indexes reaching all time highs while the Russell 2000 continues to lag behind.  This week will be a shortened week, as U.S. markets are closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day.

The Russell 2000 regained the 50-day moving average, but still remains below the 20 day.  All the other market indexes are above both key levels.

2017-05-28 – US Stock Market Averages

Price/volume action improved last week, with no new distribution days and a few old ones falling off the count.

OEW analysis shows the continued uptrend as well, finally seeing at least a little bit that the Dow and S&P500 strength needed to continue the current rally.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 21st = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Mixed
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
A midweek sell-off hit leading stocks hard, and put the general markets below key support levels.  Indexes recovered some of those losses by Friday’s close, keeping the overall outlook intact.

Stock indexes recovered some of their losses, and most begin this week above their 50 day moving averages, but below their 20-day.  The Russell 2000 sits below both levels, reflecting the difficult week for small cap stocks.

2017-05-21 – US Stock Market Averages

Price/volume remains in an uptrend, although another steep sell-off through the 50-day moving average would change this view.  Currently, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P500 and NYSE sit at 5, 3,  5, and 4 distribution days, respectively.

OEW remains in an uptrend, and looks for strength from the Dow and S&P to continue the current rally.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 14th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The U.S. markets did not get a Macron bump courtesy of the French election.  Retail had the worst week by far, while cybersecurity firms rallied in response to the WannaCry attack.  Now investors will need to look for some other catalyst.

Stock indexes remain above most moving averages; the lone exception being the Russell 2000 closing below the 20-day.

2017-05-14 – US Stock Market Averages

Price/volume remains in an uptrend, as does OEW.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of May 7th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Will results from the French run-off prime the US markets for more gains? Or was Friday’s late day rally all we’re going to get?

To kick of the week, all the stock indexes remain above their key levels.

2017-05-07 – US Market Averages

Price/volume remains in an uptrend.  Friday’s upside move was only tarnished by a lack of volume.  But given the election taking place in France, that isn’t too surprising or concerning.

OEW is back in uptrend mode.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 30th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

COMMENTARY
Market reaction to French election results stayed on trend, giving US stocks a much needed jolt to the upside. The positive momentum was enough to move two indicators back into uptrend territory, and shift the overall market outlook.

All the indexes blew past their moving averages last week, and maintained those gains to close above their 20 and 50 day levels.  This action moves the moving average outlook back to an uptrend.

2017-04-30 – US Stock Market Averages

Many leading stocks broke out of their bases on Monday and Tuesday, providing enough strength to shift the price/volume outlook back to an uptrend.  That said, distribution days remain elevated for both the NYSE, S&P, and DJIA.  Even the Nasdaq picked up a distribution day last week.  Something to keep an eye on, as it won’t take much more selling to shift the outlook back to mixed (or even a downtrend).

OEW states there is a high probability that we’re in an uptrend, but some confirmation is still needed, so the outlook changed to “mixed”.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.