Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 18th = Uptrend
- 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates. Sector rotation continues, as the Dow Jones hit new price highs and the Nasdaq fell below short-term support levels. The uptrend remains in place, but there are some warning signs.
The Dow Jones Industrials, S&P500, NYSE, and Russell 2000 start the week above key support levels (20 and 50 day moving averages). The Nasdaq had another poor showing last week, and begins this week below its 20 day moving average.
The overall distribution count can now be considered elevated, with most of the indexes above 5 (the S&P500 is at 6). Further high volume selling will confirm a new downtrend.
Caution remains the order of the day. Most of my recent trades have returned to their buy points, indicating a weak environment for growth stocks.
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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates: