The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 31st = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: n/a

COMMENTARY
We’ll kick off 2018 with a uptrend in the U.S. markets, as they are closed Monday for New Year’s Day.  Just like last week, trading resumes on Tuesday, January 2nd.

All the market indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages to start 2018.

2017-12-31 – US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price and volume action to begin 2018.  I’m looking forward to January and February, now that some leading stocks are mid-way through base building activities.

We’re still waiting for Tony and OEW to get back in the swing of things, so it may be a few more weeks before that signal comes back on line.

Now that 2017 trading is over, it’s a great time to review your trades and make adjustments for 2018.  I’ll be doing the same for the weekly market outlook, so keep an eye out for the 2017 performance review.

Happy New Year to your and yours; here’s to a profitable 2018!

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 24th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: n/a

COMMENTARY
The current rally continues into the end of 2017.  U.S. markets are closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday, with trading set to resume on Tuesday.  Passage of a new tax plan didn’t move the markets last week, mainly because opinions outnumber facts with regard to the impact.

All the market indexes remain above their 20 and 50 day moving averages to start the last week of 2017.

2017-12-24 – US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price and volume action last week.  Leading stocks continue to be extended (a bad thing), or are working on new bases (a good thing).

Hopefully Tony and OEW will be back in action to start the new year.

Wishing all of you a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 17th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis:n/a

COMMENTARY
The current rally rolls on, with Friday’s rise overcoming some mid-week price declines.

All the market indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages, per the norm.

2017-12-17 – US Stock Market Averages

No change in the price and volume action last week either.  Despite all of the noise generated by the tax plan, its approval didn’t cause breakouts for high quality stocks.  There were breakouts, just not from leaders.  This price action aligns with the fact that we haven’t had enough downtime for leading stocks to form proper base patterns.  On the plus side, you’re probably sitting on some pretty large gains as this rally continues.

Best wishes to Tony at OEW on a speedy recovery.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 10th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
The weekly outlook is back after a one week hiatus.  A thank you to all my readers for their well wishes.  We ran into some selling pressure while I was away, but nothing that derailed the current rally.

All the market indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

2017-12-10 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action hasn’t changed much in the past month or so. Distribution days come and go from the count, which remains slightly elevated.  Many leading stocks are still extended, but last weeks selling did knock some back into base building mode.

OEW uptrend signals remain in place as of Thursday’s close, although there are signs the recent rally has topped.  Tony is facing some health issues of his own, so OEW has been offline since Thursday.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 26th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
A holiday shortened week put the US markets into the 13th week of their current uptrend.

The NYSE recovered, so all the indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages.

2017-11-26 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action remains the same as last week: okay. Leading stocks are extended, and new entry points remain few and far between.

The OEW uptrend signals remain in place to start the last week in November.

Leading stocks remain extended, so technical analysis hasn’t yielded many new entry points for growth strategies.  Income strategies aren’t fairing much better, as valuations on the best income producing stocks remain really high. Several well known names have fallen on hard times, giving them artificially high yields. Don’t be fooled; their payouts are dangerously high, putting their dividends at risk for future cuts.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 19th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
Strong trading to close out last week puts us into week 12 of the current uptrend.  A shorter window of opportunity this week, with U.S. markets closed Thursday, and open until 1pm EST on Friday, for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

The U.S. market indexes remain in good shape with respect to their moving averages.  All the indexes are above their 50 day moving averages, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 start the week below their 20-day moving averages.

2017-11-19 – US Stock Market Averages

The Russell 2000 closed below it’s 50-day 3 days in a row last week; a potential warning sign, as it has been the weakest of the indexes.  But a strong Thursday and Friday session enabled the Russell to reclaim both the 20 and 50 day levels.  The NYSE also faltered last week, and now rests on the 50-day.

Price and volume action is still okay; not too good, not too bad. As mentioned last week, flat bases remain the most abundant chart pattern for growth investing, so be on the lookout for high quality set-ups (5 week minimum, high volume breakouts, etc.).

And finally, OEW shows the uptrend is still intact.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 12th = Uptrend

• 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
• Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
• Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
We’re entering the 11th week of the current uptrend, although last week was the first lower weekly close in almost 2 months for a couple of the indexes.

The U.S. market indexes begin the week in good shape, with only 1 index looking for support at a key level.  The Russell 2000 continues to the be the weakest index, with regard to moving averages.  It starts this week just above the 50-day moving average.  The other indexes sit just above their 20-day moving averages.

2017-11-12 – US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action didn’t improve last week, but it didn’t degrade either.  Several leading growth stocks rocketed higher after reporting earnings (e.g. NVDA).  As mentioned last week, most leaders are extended from proper buy points, so now is not the time to initiate new positions.

Since we haven’t had much in the way of proper corrections, flat bases have been the best technical entry point for initiating new positions and/or adding shares.

And finally, OEW shows the uptrend is still intact.

If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

• 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.