The Safe Investing Blog

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 13th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Uptrend
• On Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows a continuing uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 0.3% last week.  The index sits ~5% above the 50-day moving average and ~7% above the 200-day moving average.

All three technical indicators remain bullish after a lower volume consolidation during the week.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for July 13 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed the market index, while Communications and Financials ( $XLC & $XLF ) underperformed.  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) continues to struggle finding a direction, falling back to bearish bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 28 of 2025

Most sector styles struggled last week; High Beta ( $SPHB ) outperformed, Momentum ( $MTUM ) underperformed.  Low Beta ( $SPLV ) slipped back to neutral bias.

Sector Style Performance from Week 28 of 2025

Bitcoin rallied more than 8%, as cryptocurrencies soared last week ( e.g. $ETHE , $OSOL )  leading asset class returns listed below.  Gold ( $GLD ) was surprisingly quiet, given the outperformance seen by other metals like copper and palladium ( $CPER & $PALL ). Bonds ( $IEF ) continued their recent slide lower.  Unfortunately, these moves suggest inflationary pressures, none of which supports the case for rate cuts.  No changes to bias versus last weekend.

Asset Class Performance from Week 28 2025

COMMENTARY
In the absence of major macroeconomic headlines, U.S. tariffs took center stage.  14 countries received updated tariff “letters”, ranging from 25% to 40%, with a new implementation date of August 1.  Markets took the announcements in stride; just the latest escalation in the ongoing trade war.

But over the weekend, the U.S. announced 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico; odds are this will provoke more of a reaction from markets when futures trading opens Sunday evening.

In addition to more tariff headlines (we’re still waiting on China), the latest inflation readings ( CPI & PPI ) are released this week, along with retail sales and housing figures.  Earnings season also kicks off, with financial institutions reporting second quarter results and providing their insights into the rest of 2025.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 6th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Uptrend
• On Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook shows a continuing uptrend for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 1.7% last week.  The index sits ~7% above the 50-day moving average and ~8% above the 200-day moving average.

All three technical indicators remain bullish heading into the week, with the index showing strong price action since the quarterly option expiration on June 23.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for July 06 2025

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS
A positive week across all sectors last week, with Materials ( $XLB ) leading the pack, and Utilities ( $XLU ) bringing up the rear.  Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) and Healthcare ( $XLV ) rejoined the other sectors with bullish bias.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 27 of 2025

All sector styles were green last week as well, with small cap value ( $IWN ) and Momentum ( $MTUM ) bookending performance.  No bias changes last week, all the styles remain bullish.

Sector Style Performance from Week 27 of 2025

Oil and Equities ( $USO & $SPY ) outperformed other asset classes, while bonds ( $IEF ) lost some ground.  Oil and Gold ( $USO & $GLD ) returned to bullish bias (from neutral); bonds returned to neutral.

Asset Class Performance from Week 27 2025

COMMENTARY
The summer trading season is here and that normally brings lower trading volumes and fewer “big” moves in the indexes. This year may be different, if the first half was any indicator.

No signs of weakness in the labor market yet, with JOLTs / NFP data surprisingly positive.  Both Manufacturing and Services PMI’s were slightly higher as well.  Both of these data points pushed estimates for FOMC rate cuts further into the future.

The U.S. Congress passed its latest tax and spending bill, which is heavier on spending than taxes and likely has a stimulative effect on the economy in the near-term.

This week lacks major macroeconomic data, but expect a flurry of headlines nonetheless, since the 90-day tariff “pause” ends mid-week. On Monday, the U.S. begins informing other countries of the tariff rate on their imports, set to start on August 1. The U.S. reached an agreement with Vietnam last week, but most other countries are in some stage of agreeing to agree on frameworks. The situation probably isn’t resolved soon; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implied the goal is to be done with trade deals by Labor Day.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 29th = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity: Uptrend
• On Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend in place, with equity indexes returning to all time highs.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 3.4% last week.  The index sits ~6% above the 50-day moving average and ~6% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for June 29 2025

All three technical indicators are bullish after last week’s price and volume action.

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS

S&P Sector Performance from Week 26 of 2025

The Communications sector ( $XLC ) led to the upside with Technology ( $XLK ) a close second, thanks to Mag 7 companies.  After recently leading stocks higher, Energy ( $XLE ) sold off with oil prices.  No changes in bias last week.

Sector Style Performance from Week 26 of 2025

All styles gained ground last week, with High Beta ( $SPHB ) leading the way and High Dividend ( $SPHD ) bringing up the rear.  Low Beta and High Dividend styles ( $SPLV & $SPHD ) bounced back to bullish bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 26 2025

Bitcoin and Equities ( $IBIT & $SPY ) outperforming other asset classes, reflecting a risk-on environment.  Oil ( $USO ) cratered, falling almost 12% and giving back a little more than half of it’s gain over the past 4 weeks.  Oil and Gold ( $USO & $GLD ) retreated to neutral bias, while bonds ( $IEF ) make another swing into bullish territory.

COMMENTARY
Geopolitical headlines continue to drive market volatility as we close out the June and the second quarter. Conflict deescalation and easing tensions in the Middle East mitigated the recent spike in oil prices, while social media posts concerning trade deals with Canada and China caused large, intraday price swings in equities. This environment will extend into early July, at least, as markets key-in on the expiring suspension of “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before Congress last week, focusing on the potential inflation in response to tariffs. He repeated recent comments that the FOMC well-positioned to wait and see how the economy responds before making a decision on interest rates.

Durable goods orders spiked in May, rising 16.4%, after dropping ~7% in April, highlighting tariff uncertainty moving through supply chains.

PCE showed inflation rising in 0.1% in May, and that’s after an upward adjustment of 0.1% to April’s Headline and Core figures.

And finally, the final GDP revision shows the economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, down from the second estimate at -0.2%, and falling 1.1% year-over-year. The third estimate was lower mainly as a result of downward revisions to consumer spending and exports.

A short trading week ahead, with U.S. markets closing early on Thursday and completely on Friday for Independence Day.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 22nd = Uptrend

• Average Directional Index: Neutral
• Institutional Activity: Uptrend
• On Balance Volume: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook starts the week in an uptrend, pending market reactions to geopolitical events this weekend.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) lost 0.2% last week.  The index sits ~4% above the 50-day moving average and ~3% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for June 22 2025

Institutional Activity and On-Balance Volume ( OBV ) are bullish, though OBV did weaken a bit.  The ADX indicator is currently neutral.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 25 of 2025

Energy ( $XLE ) led sectors higher again last week; the only one to manage a gain.  Healthcare ( $XLV ) lagged the most, and dropped to bearish bias.

Sector Style Performance from Week 25 of 2025

All styles lost ground last week; High Beta ( $SPHB ) was the best performer, while Quality ( $QUAL ) was the worst.  Low Beta and High Dividend styles ( $XPLV & $SPHD ) fell back to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 25 2025

Oil ( $USO ) led assets higher again, and is now risen more than 20% in the past 4 weeks.  Bitcoin was the worst performer, continuing to act like a risk-asset rather than a store of value.

COMMENTARY
The U.S. military bombed Iranian nuclear facilities Saturday evening. At the moment, we’re waiting for the response, and the response to the response, both geopolitically and in markets. Besides the price volatility we’ll see when futures trading opens ( Sunday 6pm ET ), this is also certain: initial actions always create responses that are unanticipated and unintended. Something something, causal relationships and feedback loops, something something.

Macro-wise, May retail sales were worse than expected, falling 0.9%. The FOMC left rates unchanged, citing the unknown impact of recently enacted U.S. economic policies. This week, Federal Reserve Chair Powell gets interrogated by will deliver testimony to Congress, the third and final Q1 GDP revision is released, as well as May Durable Goods and PCE data.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 15th = Uptrend

• ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend
• On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, despite intensifying conflict on the world stage.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) lost 0.4% last week.  The index sits ~6% above the 50-day moving average and ~3% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for June 15 2025

The ADX, Institutional Activity, and On-Balance Volume are all in bullish territory.  Distribution days remain low, but are worth watching over the next week or two.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 24 of 2025

Energy ( $XLE ) led sectors higher last week, while Industrials ( $XLI ) lagged.  Energy ( $XLE ) and Healthcare ( $XLV ) improved to bullish bias.

Sector Style Performance from Week 24 of 2025

High Beta ( $SPHB ) was the best performing style for the second week in a row, and Momentum ( $MTUM ) lagged.  High Dividend ( $SPHD ) improved to bullish bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 24 2025

Oil ( $USO ) led assets higher again last week, while the U.S. Dollar was the worst performer.  U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ) improved to neutral again, continuing its recent oscillations between bias levels.

COMMENTARY
The uptrend in equities has remained quite resilient despite recent increases global conflict.  Many market participants point out that the typical “flight to safety” trade (U.S. bonds) hasn’t occurred, so financial markets are saying all is well.  That’s no reason to get complacent.

This time around, flows shifted more toward hard assets like gold or platinum, rather than U.S.-based assets like the dollar and bonds.  Even silver has been on the move.  So the flight to safety is on, just not into the traditional allocations.

The volatility index ( $VIX ) is back above 20 as well, signaling elevated risk and choppy price action ( <20 = low risk / calm, 20-30 = elevated risk / choppy, >30 = high risk / crash ).

For now, continue harvesting gains from outperforming / overbought areas and redeploy to those that are lagging / oversold, within assets showing bullish bias.  But be aware that the investing environment can and does change quickly.

Inflation data rose slightly in May, though not as much as anticipated in most cases.  Headline CPI rose 0.1%, while Core CPI remained steady.

Headline PPI rose in May, while Core PPI fell.  April data was revised higher by +0.1%.

This week, May retail sales data comes out Tuesday, FOMC makes another interest rate decision Wednesday, and US markets are closed Thursday for Juneteenth.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 8th = Uptrend

• ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend
• On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, while the S&P500 breached 6000 again.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 1.5% last week.  The index sits ~7% above the 50-day moving average and ~4% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for June 08 2025

The ADX, Institutional Activity, and On-Balance Volume are all in bullish territory.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 23 of 2025

The Tech sector ( $XLK ) led sectors higher last week, while Consumer Staples were the worst.  Energy ( $XLE ) improved to neutral bias.

Sector Style Performance from Week 23 of 2025

High Beta and Small Cap Growth ( $SPHB & IWO ) were the best performing styles, each gaining ~4%.  Low beta ( $SPLV ) was the worst.  High Dividend ( $SPHD ) improved to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 23 2025

Oil ( $USO ) led assets higher last week, and moved from bearish to bullish bias in the process.  U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ) were the worst asset, and moved back to bearish from neutral bias.

COMMENTARY
Short post today since it’s my birthday.

ISM manufacturing was inline, though still showing contraction (below 50).  Services surprised to the downside and falling back into a contraction.  Labor readings were mixed; JOLTS was slightly higher, while non-farm payrolls were slightly lower.

This week, we get May inflation data CPI/PPI and June Consumer Sentiment.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 1st = Uptrend

• ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
• Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend
• On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook stays in an uptrend, after equities found support at the 200-day moving average and rallied out of the Memorial Day weekend.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) gained 1.9% last week.  The index sits ~5% above the 50-day moving average and ~2% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Price & Volume Chart for June 01 2025

The ADX, Institutional Activity, and On-Balance Volume are all in bullish territory.

S&P Sector Performance from Week 22 of 2025

Real Estate ( $XLRE ) led sectors higher last week, and bounced back to bullish bias after testing a change last week.  Energy ( $XLE ) was the worst performer.

Sector Style Performance from Week 22 of 2025

All sector styles gained last week, with Momentum ( $MTUM ) leading the way and  Defensive ( $POWA ) bringing up the rear.  High Dividend ( $SPHD ) improved to neutral bias.

Asset Class Performance from Week 22 2025

Stocks and Bonds ( $SPY & $IEF ) were the winning plays, while Bitcoin ( $IBIT ) ran into some liquidation flows and dropped 6%. Bonds ( $IEF ) moved from bearish to neutral bias.

COMMENTARY
After Tuesday’s opening rally, equities didn’t make much progress and suffered from a lot of intraday volatility.  Macro data was in-line with expectations, and NVIDIA earnings were well received.

After rising more than 7% in March on tariff front-running, Durable Goods Orders fell 6% in April.  No surprise here.

Last month’s FOMC minutes were released Wednesday.  Participants felt tariff increases were significantly larger and more extensive than anticipated, and noted a high level of  uncertainty around trade policy and resulting impacts to the economy.  That said, they feel they’re well positioned, choosing to wait for more clarity from inflation and labor data.

As for the Federal Reserves favored inflation measure, both Headline and Core PCE fell 20 basis points year over year, inching closer to the Feds 2% target.

Finally, the second GDP revision was revised higher by 10 bps, but still negative Q1.

This week, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, JOLTS, and non-farm payroll data are released.

Typically, late May to early June is a strong period for equities, then performance wanes as we close out the month.  Headline volatility remains a risk, with markets hyper-fixated on tariff news.  Key levels to watch are the prior all time highs from February and the gaps in price action from April and May.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don’t, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.  Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.