Stock Market Outlook: May 24th = Uptrend
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place, with U.S. markets closed on Monday.
Developed Market Equities, Utilities, and an odd mix of styles outperformed; Oil and Communications underperformed. Surging bond yields and geopolitics continue to exert their influence over asset prices as we head into June.
TREND ANALYSIS
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9% last week. The index is:
- ~7% above the 50-day moving average
- ~10% above the 200-day moving average
The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.
- Average Directional Index: Bullish
- No change
- Institutional Activity: Bullish
- Two distribution days will fall out of the count this week
- On-Balance Volume: Bullish
- No change
SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-24
PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS
Asset Classes
Developed Market Equities ( $VEA ) led assets higher last week, with Oil and Bitcoin ( $USO, $IBIT ) underperforming. U.S. Bonds ( $IEF ) clawed their way back to neutral bias.
Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-24
S&P500 Sectors
Utilities ( $XLU ) led the market higher after experiencing an oversold bounce. Communications ( $XLC ) lagged and slide back to neutral bias. Healthcare ( $XLV ) had a strong week and was able to reclaim bullish bias; Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) shifted back to bullish bias as well.
S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-24
S&P500 Investing Styles
A 3-way tie for best investing style last week between High Beta, Small Cap Growth and High Dividend ( $SPHB, $IWO, $SPHD ) . There was also a tie for “worst” style, with Large and Mega Cap Growth ( $IWF, $OEF ) only gaining 0.50%. The gains in High Dividend were enough to improve to bullish bias, and Low Beta moved from bearish to neutral.
Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-24
COMMENTARY
Markets
Given the lack of macro data released last week, you’d be forgiven if you expected Nvidia’s blowout earnings report to have a bigger impact on equity prices. While the technology sector responded positively, it appears geopolitical uncertainty, rising bond yields, and the specter of rate hikes were enough to offset AI enthusiasm.
Macroeconomic Data & Policy
FOMC meeting minutes showed a U.S. Federal Reserve contemplating the possibility of rate hikes if inflation continued to move away from their long-run target. And Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on Friday.
Geopolitics
Social media diplomacy continued last week, with both sides of the U.S.-Iran “Maritime Conflict & Ceasefire” issuing conflicting updates. This may turn into the ultimate “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, given the recent moves in rates, bonds, and inflation haven’t significantly impact equity indexes.
EYES ON THE HORIZON
Short trading week in the U.S. with markets closed Monday for Memorial Day.
- Monday: U.S. Market Closed (Memorial Day)
- Tuesday: —
- Wednesday: —
- Thursday: PCE (April), Q1 GDP (2nd Estimate)
- Friday: —
Best to Your Week!
The Safe Investing Blog 