Stock Market Outlook: May 3rd = Uptrend
The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend to start the first full week of May.
Oil, Energy, and Large Cap Value outperformed; Gold, Industrials, and Defensives underperformed. Mag 7 earnings came through for the market again, and investors now turn their attention to this week’s employment data.
TREND ANALYSIS
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.9% last week, thanks to a strong move higher on Thursday. The index is now:
- ~6% above the 50-day moving average
- ~8% above the 200-day moving average
The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.
- Average Directional Index: Bullish
- No change
- Institutional Activity: Bullish
- Another distribution days added to the count
- Trading volume remains subdued
- On-Balance Volume: Bullish
- No change
SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-05-03
PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS
Asset Classes
Oil ( $USO ) led asset prices higher for a second consecutive week. Gold ( $GLD ) lagged…again. Emerging Market Bonds ( $PCY ) eased back to neutral bias.
Asset Class Performance – 2026-05-03
S&P500 Sectors
Energy ( $XLE ) outperformed last week, ending Technology’s bid for 4 consecutive weeks leading to the upside. Industrials ( $XLI ) underperformed. Communications ( $XLC ) climbed back bullish bias.
S&P Sector Performance – 2026-05-03
S&P500 Investing Styles
In a bit of a surprise, Large Cap Value ( $IWX ) was the leading sector style. Defensives ( $POWA ) underperformed. There were no bias changes.
Sector Style Performance – 2026-05-03
COMMENTARY
Markets
From a market standpoint, Magnificent 7 earnings didn’t disappoint, again, pushing equities higher midweek. That said, investors didn’t reward every report. Alphabet’s revenue beat and increased capital expenditure guidance sent shares soaring; Amazon and Apple carried their weight as well. Microsoft’s strong results didn’t provide the same boost in share price. Meta had the worst luck, with investors sending shares lower due to increased capex figures.
Macroeconomic Data & Policy
The FOMC held rates steady, in what was likely Chairman Powell’s last press conference.
The first estimate of Q1 GDP came in at +2%, which was slightly below estimates but still a welcome increase year over year. March PCE, which reflects changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States, came in at +3.5% year over year; Core was +3.2%. Combined, these datapoints show an inflationary environment in place for much of the first quarter.
ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady in April, continuing the expansion in place since January.
Geopolitics
A quiet week on the geopolitical front, relatively speaking, with the U.S./Iran cease-fire holding and potential deals being discussed through back channels.
EYES ON THE HORIZON
The first full week of May is all about employment data: March Job Openings ( JOLTS ), April employment change ( ADP ), and April Non-farm Payrolls ( NFP ).
- Monday: —
- Tuesday: ISM Services, JOLTS
- Wednesday: ADP Job Openings
- Thursday: —
- Friday: NFP, Consumer Sentiment
Best to Your Week!
The Safe Investing Blog 