Stock Market Outlook: April 26th = Uptrend
The stock market outlook continues to show an uptrend with equities consolidating near all time highs.
Oil, Technology, and Momentum outperformed; Gold, Healthcare, High Dividend, and Defensives underperformed. Earnings reports have exceeded expectations so far, and this week’s line-up could have an outsized impact.
TREND ANALYSIS
The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 0.5% last week, consolidating slightly after the historic run-up. The index is now:
- ~6% above the 50-day moving average
- ~7% above the 200-day moving average
The three technical indicators used to identify trends remain bullish.
- Average Directional Index: Bullish
- No change.
- Institutional Activity: Bullish
- Two distributions days were added to the new count
- On-Balance Volume: Bullish
- No change
SPX Price & Volume Chart – 2026-04-26
PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS & COMPARISONS
Asset Classes
Oil ( $USO ) continues to bounce around, leading asset prices higher last week. Gold ( $GLD ) was the worst performer. Developed Market Bonds ( $BNDX ) eased back to neutral bias.
Asset Class Performance – 2026-04-26
S&P500 Sectors
Technology ( $XLK ) led sectors to the upside for the 3rd straight week. Communications and Healthcare ( $XLC, $XLV ) underperformed. Energy ( $XLE ) rallied back to bullish bias, while Communications ( $XLC ) eased back the neutral.
S&P Sector Performance – 2026-04-26
S&P500 Investing Styles
Momentum ( $MTUM ) outperformed last week, followed closely by High Beta ( $SPHB ). High Dividend and Defensives ( $SPHD, $POWA ) were the worst performers. Low Beta dropped to bearish bias ( $SPLV ).
Sector Style Performance – 2026-04-26
COMMENTARY
Markets
The equity market is back to risk-on, and one place that’s readily apparent is semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index rallied almost 10% last week, on the back Intel’s blow-out earnings.
Speaking of earnings, a majority of the companies reporting have exceeded revenue and profit expectations. Add in the extended cease-fire, and the S&P500 passed 7,000 for the first time last week.
This week has a lot of potential earnings-related volatility, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple reporting. 5 of the Mag 7 represent a lot of market cap in today’s indexes. All eyes will be on their AI-related spending, especially CAPEX projections.
Macroeconomic Data & Policy
Retail sales increased in March, thanks in large part of higher gas prices. Flash PMIs were also higher. Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh didn’t make many waves during his Congressional testimony, sticking to well-worn talking points. He did mention assessing better models for inflation and the labor market.
Geopolitics
The off again, on again nature of West Asia peace talks kept most people guessing last week, with the only concrete steps being the extension of ceasefires with Iran and Lebanon. It’s unclear if a weekend assassination attempt on the U.S. President will have any impact on futures markets when they open Sunday evening.
EYES ON THE HORIZON
This week marks Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve Chairman, with markets expecting the committee to keep interest rates steady. We’ll also get the latest PCE inflation data and our first look at Q1 GDP.
- Monday: —
- Tuesday: —
- Wednesday: FOMC
- Thursday: PCE, Q1 GDP
- Friday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
Best to Your Week!
The Safe Investing Blog 