Weekend Stock Market Outlook – April 23 2023

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 23rd = Downtrend

      • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
      • Price & Volume Signals: Mixed
      • Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed

The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend as we continue to wait for confirmation of a new trend.

The S&P500 ($SPX) fell 0.1% last week, while continuing to trade in a tight range (roughly 4130 +/- 1%) since the start of April.  The index remains above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, and is now looking for support at the prior trendline of lower highs.  The prior high (Feb.2) is the key resistance level.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Price & Volume Chart for the Week of April 23 2023

The ADX signal shows a weak bullish trend in place.  No change in price and volume action; the unconfirmed, low volume rally continues.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of April 23 2023 – Bearish Count

No change in Elliott Wave entering the week.  The MACD is on the verge of a bearish cross-over, which would confirm the negative divergence in the RSI(5).  Regardless of the count (bullish/bearish), those two data points suggest April 18th was a near-term top.  A rally above the Feb. 3rd / Intermediate (X) high of 4196 invalidates the bearish count, while dropping below the Minute [i] high of 4039 invalidates the bullish count.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Elliott Wave Analysis for the Week of April 23 2023 – Bullish Count

Important data coming out this week includes Q1 GDP on Thursday, and March PCE on Friday, along with another week of earnings reports.

Best To Your Week!

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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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