Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 2nd = Downtrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Signals: Mixed
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed
The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend, even though last week’s price moves were impressive (i.e. another signal needs to indicate an uptrend before the overall outlook changes).
The S&P500 ($SPX) rose 3.5% for the week, rallying past the 50-day moving average, and breaking the trend of lower highs since early February. Trading volume fell to below average levels. The index closed out the first quarter up 7%, with that entire gain coming within the past 3 weeks.
The ADX directional indicators flipped to bullish on Wednesday, though the overall trend remains weak with reading near 12.
Price/volume moved to mixed on Wednesday; price closed above the 50-day moving average, but trading volume was below average. Thursday and Friday’s price gains also occurred on low volume, indicating those moves weren’t supported by institutional buying. Look for a gain of 1.5% or more on above average trade volume to signal a confirmation of an uptrend.
Elliott Wave remains mixed, with 3765 and 4196 still the proverbial lines in the sand. Last week’s analysis bore out, with the SPX rising towards 4200. This week, the MACD remains bullish but the RSI(5) is overbought. This suggests a drop in the days ahead; probably back to the 4000 level. Updates to the monthly charts are at the end of the post.
In the bearish count, the index closed within the typical completion zone (61.8%+) for a second and suggests March’s bear market rally is nearly complete.
The bullish wave count suggests that a move to the downside will be short-lived.
Last week’s data releases maintained the trend of “mixed bag” reports; overall unemployment remains low, while inflation continues to rise, albeit not as much verses the prior month / year.
Short trading week ahead, with U.S. stock markets closed for Good Friday on the 7th. Earnings season kicks off the following week, with reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C).
With mixed signals, mixed bag datasets, and corporate quite periods ahead of earnings, capital flows (i.e. momentum) will be the name of the game. So watch out for reversals and whipsaws over the next two weeks.
Best To Your Week!
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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, T1 Alpha, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Long-term Elliott Wave Count Updates