Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 3rd = Downtrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
- Price & Volume Action: Mixed
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed
A downtrend for the stock market outlook remains in place to start July. The S&P500 ($SPX) couldn’t get past the resistance zone created by the May lows, ending the week down ~2%.
We didn’t get any strong up days last week, so the ADX stays bearish. Price/volume remains mixed, with the latest attempt on life support after the index closed below the follow-through day on Thursday. Trading volume remains an issue, and the index picked up two distribution days already.
Elliott Wave remains mixed. Depending on how you interpret the waves, the SPX could be in the second wave of a bear market rally or the third wave of another wave down. Benefit of the doubt goes to a bear market rally, thanks to positive divergences in both RSI and MACD. 3636 support and 3945 resistance are validation levels.
Summer trading is in session and with it lower volume. Thursday was an exception, likely caused by a final round of quarter-end performance adjustments from hedge funds. They’re not doing so well this year, but that’s true of most investors.
U.S. markets are closed Monday in observance of Independence Day. Unemployment and hourly earnings data are release this week. Otherwise, it should be the calm before the storm, with earnings season starting the week of the 11th.
Best To Your Week!