Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 23rd = Downtrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
- Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Mixed
The stock market outlook shifted to a downtrend after significant selling took the SPX down more than 5% last week.
The S&P500 ($SPX) found no technical support last week: not at the two trendlines, not at the 50-day moving average, not even at the 200-day. The higher lows mentioned last week? Tuesday took care of that trend too, as well a few other things.
First things first, the ADX directional indicators are solidly bearish and showing a strengthening trend.
The price & volume signal moved from mixed to a downtrend on Tuesday, tripping three different alarms.
- The index made a new lower low (vs Jan 10)
- The index closed below the follow-through day for the uptrend (Dec 15)
- The selling came on higher trading volume
The SPX followed that up by closing below the rally starting point (Dec 6), just to make sure traders got the message. Not that investors and traders needed a reminder, given that most individual stocks, especially technology names, have been selling off for some time now.
For Elliott Wave, the 3 most bullish counts bit the dust when the SPX fell below 4495 on Thursday.
That leaves us 1 uptrend and 1 downtrend remaining…a mixed signal if there was one.
It’s possible that Minor 2 is still in progress. If that count is correct, we’re in the final leg of the sell-off and the SPX won’t get lower than 4279…that’s another 2.5% or so.
Or, if the index can’t hold 4279, it’s likely that Primary  ended January 3rd and we’re all “crying Jordan’s” in a Primary  correction.
If we zoom out, here’s what the long term count looks like at the moment.
The 10-year treasury yield spiked last week to a 2-year high, driving money out of stocks (especially the technology sector), and spiking volatility. While talking heads express shock at the moves, market action is pretty consistent with the beginning of Fed tightening cycles. Not to mention the uniqueness of the current cycle, coming off of zero and near-zero interest rate policy.
More than likely you noticed the selling a while ago in individual companies. The indexes were buoyed by megacap’s like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google.
I’m not saying we don’t go lower from here; just that the selling isn’t abnormal from a long term perspective. Even crypto!
Best To Your Week!
thx, nice analysis