Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 21st = Uptrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
- Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, as the S&P500 ($SPX) spent the week grinding higher. From a moving average perspective, the index starts the week in roughly the same position as it did last week: ~4% and 10% above the 50 and 200 day, respectively.
The ADX continues to highlight bullish price action and trend, as does price/volume. Friday was a lower close on higher volume, thanks in part to November options expiration. But the price movement wasn’t larger enough to qualify for a distribution day.
Elliott Wave maintains an uptrend. Both the RSI and MACD show negative divergences verses the rising price action; common for 5th waves, but also a sign of a weak rally.
A short trading week on tap in the U.S., due to the Thanksgiving Holiday (markets closed Thursday and shortened trading hours Friday).
Historically, Thanksgiving week is a positive one for the markets, but the possible nomination of the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve is a wildcard this year. Personal spending and income data and the PCE index for October are released on Wednesday, which are sure to add fuel to the inflation debate.
Best to Your Week!