Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 13th = Uptrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook uptrend remains in place to start the week of June 13th.

The S&P500 ($SPX) starts this week in roughly the same position as laset week, and the week before, and the week before that…~2% above the 50-day and ~11% above the 200 day.

SPX Price Chart for the Week of June 13 2021

The ADX still shows a weak bullish trend in play, but the index didn’t see any distribution last week. The price/volume signal remains mixed though, as the total count still has a couple more days to work off.

SPX Price Chart for the Week of June 13 2021

Elliott Wave continues to show an uptrend.

COMMENTARY
Inflation was on everyone’s mind last week, with the consumer price index (CPI) up 5.0% from a year ago. Core CPI, or the one without food and energy costs, rose 3.8%. Those are pretty steep numbers, even if they really are “transitory” like the Fed suggests. So far, the bond market appears to agree, as yields continue to drop.

The year over year comparison was always going to be dramatic, since economic activity was so depressed last year at this time. But reopening demand, combined with supply chains issues and shortages, is a recipe for higher prices regardless of economic starting points.

I’m assuming we’ll see a spike in inflation and then it will ease off a bit as supply chains get sorted. However, I think inflation levels remain elevated, and just “seem” lower when compared to the spike for year over year comparisons.

Best to Your Week!