Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 28th = Uptrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook flipped after receiving confirmation of the new uptrend on Friday.  Better late than never, I guess.

2021-03-28-SPX Trendline Analysis-Daily

The S&P500 ($SPX) trended lower for most of the week, before snapping finding support at the rising trendline and the 50-day moving average and snapping back sharply on Thursday and Friday.

The ADX still shows bearish price action in control, while two distribution days fell off the count, and one was added.  Friday’s action qualified as a follow-through day, so the price/volume signal switches to an uptrend with two asterisks.

Asterisk #1:  The number of distribution days is very high, especially considering this rally is just getting started.

Asterisk #2:  The follow-through day occurred outside the 10-day window that you’d typically like to see a strong follow-through.

2021-03-28-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis-Daily-Primary1

The Elliott Wave count shows the S&P is now two waves into a Minor 5.

COMMENTARY
Not much in the way of economic news last week, although the Suez Canal blockage is something to keep an eye on.

One interesting note from the stock market was that as of Friday’s close, the S&P500 has risen ~81% from the market low on March 23, 2020! That’s an amazing 1 year return!

Best to Your Week!