Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 14th = Downtrend

• • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Mixed
  • Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook remains in a downtrend to start the week, as we await confirmation of the new uptrend. The current price action is choppy at best, thanks to sector rotation, and that “whipsaw” effect will generate false signals and/or delay new ones.

2021-03-14-SPX Trendline Analysis-Daily

The S&P500 ($SPX) rallied from the 50-day moving average and briefly touched an new all time high, though trading volumes left a lot to be desired.

The ADX shows a weakening “weak” trend, but it’s still bearish. From a price & trading volume perspective, the signal is back to mixed as we wait for confirmation of the rally over the next 9 days (>1.5% gain on higher than average volume prior to March 22nd).

2021-03-14-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis-Daily-Primary1

True to form and as eluded to last week, downtrends  continue to last about 3 weeks in this run up from the pandemic low.  The S&P remained above 3700, and took another run at all time highs.  So the bullish alternative appears to have won out (no surprise there), and the Elliott Wave chart was updated to match.

COMMENTARY
The big news, last week, came out of Washington D.C., with the passage and signing of the American Rescue Plan (ARP).  Among other things, ~$400 billion in direct payments will begin making their way into the hands of consumers via $1400 checks and direct deposits.  That money “should” give the stock market some kind of boost, via increased spending or just outright investment in stocks.

In other news, the S&P500 will be shaking things up a bit on March 22. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Penn National Gaming (PENN), Generac Holdings (GNRC) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) will be added to the index before market’s open on March 22. They’re replacing Flowserve (FLS), SL Green Realty (SLG), Xerox Holdings (XRX) and Vontier (VNT), which are moving to other indexes.

Best to Your Week!