Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 17th = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, albeit a weakening one.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2021-01-17-SPX Trendline Analysis-Daily

The S&P500, ($SPX) closed its gap to the 200-day moving average, but still sits more than 10% above that level. Price found some support at the bottom of a potential channel on Friday.

The ADX continues to show a bullish trend, but that trend has weakened since December. With a reading under the 20-25 range, there isn’t much of a trend to follow anyway. And we picked up two distribution days in succession last week; not enough to change the signal, but not the best price action either.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2021-01-17-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis-Daily-Primary1

Elliott Wave also remains in an uptrend, though some analysts think we may have just completed a minor wave, given the divergence in the RSI and the MACD histogram inflection/cross-over.

COMMENTARY
It’s that start of earnings season, which should make some some interesting price action over the next few weeks.

The incoming Biden administration released a $1.9 trillion fiscal-stimulus plan, and not a moment too soon, as jobless claims are coming in higher than anticipated. Other headwinds include a slower than anticipated vaccine rollout and an increase is COVID cases after the holiday season.

A short week on tap, with U.S. markets closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

Best to Your Week!

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