Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 1st = Downtrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend


The stock market outlook flipped to a downtrend early last week, and continues with that label to start November.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2020-11-01-SPX Trendline Analysis-Daily

The S&P500 ($SPX) fell through the recent support trendline. The ADX continue to worsen last week, moving from mixed to full blown bearish on Monday. Price and volume also accelerated through the 50-day moving average, flipping that signal to a downtrend as well.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2020-11-01-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis-Daily-PrimaryC

The bearish count found new life last week. 3200 is still the key support level.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2020-11-01-SPX Trendline Analysis-Weekly

Not much changed in the monthly view.  The “megaphone” pattern people were discussing back in September held strong.

European lock-downs also pushed markets lower over the weekend, thought the economic damage should be reduced compared to earlier this year.

U.S. elections are Tuesday, and it’s really anyone’s guess as to how it will turn out, both from a Presidential as well as a Congressional standpoint. The government continues to drag its collective feet on more economic stimulus, though more spending is almost guaranteed regardless of which party wins at the polls. Speaking of which, it could take some time for the races to be decided this year, due to the number of mail in voters. All of which creates a lot of uncertainty heading into the next few weeks…and stock markets don’t react well to uncertainty.

If you haven’t done so yet, plan to Vote on Tuesday!

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