Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of July 19th = Uptrend

    • ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
    • Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

ANALYSIS
The stock market outlook uptrend continues, with the ADX, Price/Volume, and Elliott Wave all in the green.

2020-07-19-SPX Trendline Analysis-Daily

The S&P500 ($SPX), closed above the resistance trendline pretty consistently. But it was unable to get past the June 8th high.  The ADX remains bullish. Distribution day count is still low and recent ones have below average trading volume.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2020-07-19-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis-Daily-Intermediate A

No change to the Elliott Wave count; 5th wave still in progress. We do have a pretty good set-up for a new high on lower relative strength (RSI divergence) that was missing back in early June, which can be seen in both the daily and weekly views.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2020-07-19-SPX Trendline Analysis-Weekly

COMMENTARY
Bank earnings were better than expected, thanks in large part to “trading” based revenues.  That said, here are a couple of quotes from the conference calls (hat tip to Steve Blumenthal):

“May and June will prove to be the easy bumps in terms of this recovery. And now we’re really hitting the moment of truth, I think, in the months ahead.”

– Jennifer Piepszak, CFO, JPMorgan

“Our view of the length and severity of the economic downturn has deteriorated considerably from the assumptions used last quarter.”

– Charlie Scharf, CEO, Wells Fargo

“I don’t think anybody should leave any bank earnings call this quarter simply feeling like the worst is absolutely behind us and it’s a rosy path ahead.”

— Mike Corbat, CEO, Citigroup

Earnings season ramps up this week, with ~100 companies reporting results.

Best to your week!

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