Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 1st = Downtrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend

COMMENTARY
No change in the market outlook; the downtrend continues. The ADX, price/volume, and OEW indicators are all in downtrends. Stock prices did receive a much needed lift on Thursday, after China announced it would not retaliate against President Donald Trump’s most recent tariff plan.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-09-01 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The S&P500 ($SPX) continues to trade below its 50-day moving average.   The floor of support near 2,825 held up well last month, with prices bouncing higher after each test.  Unfortunately, there is also a resistance level around 2,940, which acted as ceiling and sent prices low after each test (including Friday).

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

2019-09-01 – SPX Fibonacci Analysis – Daily

If we only plot closing prices and then overlay Fibonacci retracement levels on the June-July rally, we see range-bound price action between the 38.2 and 61.8 ratios.  Trading algorithms at work?  Who knows.

Technical analysis of weekly SPX prices

2019-09-01 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

The weekly view shows the S&P500 reaching is first higher close in a month, but with low trading volume  That’s to be expected the week leading up to Labor Day.  Now that the summer holiday season is over, trading volume should return.

Last week’s “good” news aside, the latest round of tariffs go live on Sunday (September 1), and U.S. markets are closed Monday, September 2 for the Labor Day holiday. It’s anyone’s guess what happens Tuesday when trading resumes. I’m looking for a strong move above the 50-day moving average, on above average volume, to signal a new rally is really in progress.


If you find this research helpful, please forward to a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


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Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
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