Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of June 23rd = Uptrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
No change in the signals this week; green across the board. The ADX remains bullish. Price/volume trends continue to signal uptrend. OEW hasn’t been updated, but it’s safe to say the uptrend is intact.
Even though the OEW blog hasn’t been update in a while, the OEW charts on stockcharts.com look like they’re maintained. 2957 is the support/resistance level currently in play. It’s safe to say that the analysis would put us in an uptrend; what’s uncertain is how much more room we have to advance before the next “wave” down. Relative strength is really high, so either way I expect they’d say we’re due for a pullback. I’m trying to find another publicly available source to use, but those are some big shoes to fill.
2019-06-23 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily
In the daily view, the S&P 500 ($SPX) looks extended, and met some resistance at the ATH. Trading volume was masked due to the quadruple witching day last Friday. Some analysts see a double top forming (start of May to last week). Others are calling it a triple top (going back to Q3 last year – see the weekly chart).
2019-06-23 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly
In the weekly view, we see the strength of our recent move; the current rally did in 3 weeks wat the former rally did in 10!
I’m still conservative in my approach, given all of the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding U.S. stocks. But that doesn’t mean prices can’t go higher…if for no other reason than investors have money to invest. You can find a good perspective of the current state of investor sentiment over at The Fat Pitch. Fear is high, firms are overweight bonds, underweight equities, and have high levels of cash (verses historical norms). If expectations about a rate cut in July turn out to be correct, prices could run higher this summer just because there’s no where else for the money to go!
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Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.
If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad. It’s one of my favorites.
For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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