Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of April 7th = Uptrend
- ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
No April Fool’s joke this year. Market prices powered higher last week, leaving little reason to doubt new all time highs shortly. The ADX DI+ / DI- remains in bullish/uptrend territory. Price/volume shifts back to an uptrend. And the OEW group continues with their uptrend call.
In the weekly view, the S&P’s shows the late December remains intact.
2019-04-07 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly
I also highlighted all the weeks of heavy selling, going back to mid-2016 (rather than just the last year). You can see a fairly even smattering of “distribution weeks” (if there is such a thing) throughout 2016 and the first half of 2017. Then, it switched to feast or famine; either the market sold off hard every other week, or there was very little selling to speak of.
I haven’t back-tested the performance impact from this observation. I just assume that a sell off now and then is health for market prices, and noticed the S&P hasn’t had a “distribution week” since the market bottom 15 weeks ago.
2019-04-07 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily
Switching to a daily view, the S&P500 ($SPX) starts the week in what appears to be a new uptrend channel. In contrast with the weekly view, the daily view shows the late December uptrend did end a couple weeks ago. Nevertheless, the daily confirms the break above those 2018 Q4 highs. 2 distribution days fell off the count, so the price/volume signal shifts from mixed to an uptrend.
2019-04-07 – US Stock Market Averages
Generally speaking, the various averages showed a lot of strength last week. Even the Russell 2000 joined in, after closing below its 50-day moving averages two weeks ago.
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Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.
If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad. It’s one of my favorites.
For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.
Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.
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