Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of March 10th = Uptrend

  • ADX Directional Indicators: Downtrend
  • Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
  • Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY
An entire week of lower closing prices weakened the signals a bit, but not enough to change the trend at this point.

In the weekly view, the S&P finally encountered a lower weekly close, ending the week just below the 40-week / 200-day moving average.

SPX Trendlines

2019-03-10 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Weekly

Switching to a daily view, the S&P500 ($SPX) retreated from the 2,800 resistance level we’ve been tracking, having reached a near-term high of 2817.

SPX Trendlines

2019-03-10 – SPX Trendline Analysis – Daily

The DI+ / DI- switched from bullish to bearish as of Thursday’s close.  For the price/volume signal, the S&P remains above 50-day moving average, while distribution days have started to pile up.  Again, not enough to change the signal, but worth watching in the coming weeks.

The OEW group posted a weekly summary Saturday, indicating that markets are still in an uptrend, but there’s an expectation that we confirm a new, short-term downtrend in the coming weeks.

A sell-off is a good thing, especially after the v-shaped recovery we’ve seen.  Some light selling now is much preferred to heavy selling later…unless you’re looking for valuations to come down…then you might prefer the latter scenario!


If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend. If you don’t find it helpful, tell an enemy. I share articles and other news of interest via Twitter; you can follow me @investsafely. The weekly market outlook is also posted on Facebook and Linkedin.

Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

If you’re interested in learning more about the relationship between price and volume, or how to find and trade the best stocks for your growth strategy, check out this book on Amazon via the following affiliate link: How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.  It’s one of my favorites.

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.


Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments.  The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.


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Hypothetical Presentations:
Any referenced performance is “as calculated” using the referenced funds and has not been independently verified. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any reader or contributor, from any specific funds or securities.
The author and/or any reader may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including:
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Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no one should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index.
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