Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of October 21st = Downtrend
- 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
- Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Downtrend
We start this week sitting on a small, fledgling recovery within a downtrend. The 200 day moving average provided some level of support, but it’s not clear if this is the start of a rally or a pause in the downtrend.
All the indexes kick things off below their 20 and 50 day moving averages, keeping this signal in a downtrend.
The downtrend remains from a price/volume perspective, as leading stocks continue to get trounced and prices continue to fall on higher than average trading volume.
OEW remains in a downtrend. They expected a 250 point decline, followed by a 50% retracement, and then another decline to lower lows. Last week, we recovered just under 50% of the first drop (~110 of the 230 points).
The S&P ($SPX) found support at the 200 day moving average during the week, but didn’t progress much from that level either. If that level doesn’t hold, a trip below 2600 is likely (losses of another 6% or so).
Now is not the time to go all in; we need some positive developments first. But take a look at your watch list and see what’s holding up reasonable well in the midst of the sell-off. Those are likely the names that will lead the market higher when it turn around.
Participate. Protect. Prepare.
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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:
- 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook