Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of September 16th = Uptrend
- 20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
- Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
- Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend
Looks like the stock market opted for a run at new highs (rather than searching for support). A quick run through a bunch of recession indicators (trends in the yield curve, unemployment, new home sales, retail sales, etc.) shows no sign of a recession with the next 12 months. So even if the markets do test support key support levels sometime soon, it’s most likely a buy the dip opportunity.
All the indexes start the week above their 20 and 50 day moving averages; the Nasdaq and NYSE regained the 20 day average last week.
A solid week of gains on rising trading volume last week; not quite as much volume as expected, but we’re in a positive position nonetheless.
OEW is still in an uptrend, and still expecting new highs in all market averages before any kind of next major correction.
The S&P ($SPX) starts the week in a good position; fresh off a key support level and in the middle of our price channel. Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: the ADX is showing a weak trend. At least the directional indicators are supporting of an uptrend (DI+ is greater than DI-). One of these days I’ll need to find a momentum indicator to supplement the ADX.
Extending our view, we see the expected increase in trading volume, and the January high acting as a support level last week.
And since we’ve successfully recovered the January high, it’s a good time to check your asset allocation levels and/or take some profits. Remember; bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:
- 2015 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2016 Performance – Stock Market Outlook
- 2017 Performance – Stock Market Outlook